The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● WI-06: Earlier this month, sophomore GOP Rep. Glenn Grothman admitted his campaign was "not raising as much money as we should," and for once in his miserable career, he knew what he was talking about. Democrat Dan Kohl, a former Milwaukee Bucks assistant general manager and a nephew of ex-Sen. Herb Kohl, entered the race in June. Not only did he outraise Grothman $251,000 to $132,000 during the third quarter, Kohl had a $405,000 to $325,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of September.
Campaign Action
This seat, which includes Fond du Lac and Sheboygan, went from 53-46 Romney to 56-39 Trump, so Grothman is hardly the most likely of Democratic targets. But it's not just his weak fundraising that makes Grothman a potentially big liability for Team Red: Grothman has stated that he doesn't believe there is a wage gap between men and women, called Kwanzaa a fake holiday promoted by "white left-wingers who try to shove this down black people's throats in an effort to divide Americans," and authored a bill to declare single parenthood a factor in child abuse… and that's just all the stuff he said before he was in Congress. But while Grothman only narrowly prevailed in his 2014 primary, the GOP wave helped propel him to a 57-41 win, and he had no trouble in 2016.
Grothman hasn't changed in D.C. This year alone, the congressman told a town hall that women could just get birth control from grocery stores so Planned Parenthood wasn't necessary. And right after Montana Republican Greg Gianforte assaulted a journalist, Grothman told the Washington Post that his future colleague seemed "like a good guy." It will likely take a very good national climate to beat an incumbent this Trumpy in a seat this Trumpy, but if Grothman is vulnerable, Kohl should have the resources to go after him.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Democrat Doug Jones' latest ad is a minute-long spot that retells the pivotal moments of the Battle of Gettysburg to highlight how Americans often have vast differences, but we now settle them peacefully instead of resorting to violence. Jones says we fight too often over other matters now, and that he wants to go to Washington to meet representatives from other states because there is honor in compromise and finding common ground.
● AZ-Sen: U.S. News & World Report's David Catanese recently reported that Republican Sen. Jeff Flake was considering running for re-election as an independent and had given his assent to a third-party organization to poll the possibility. However, soon after Catanese's story was published, Flake tweeted "Not gonna happen. I subscribe to the old saw Running as an Independent is the future...and will always be the future." While Flake could change his mind, he has thus far given no indication that he is seriously contemplating an independent candidacy.
However, Flake's decision not to run again does leave the Republican primary wide open, and Data Orbital is the first pollster to test that contest following the incumbent's departure. They find a 28 percent plurality of voters are undecided, followed by former state Sen. Kelli Ward at 26 percent, Rep. Martha McSally at 19 percent, former Rep. Matt Salmon at 10 percent, Rep. David Schweikert at 5 percent, and no other candidates topping 4 percent.
So far, Ward is the only notable Republican who is officially in the race, and her taking 26 percent against rivals who haven't even announced yet is not particularly intimidating. While Ward crushed Flake in polls taken before the latter dropped out, much of that advantage was likely a result of Republican primary voters getting fed-up with the incumbent, not because Ward herself was an especially compelling alternative. Other major Republicans are likely to jump in now that Flake isn't running again, and polls like this one show that Ward doesn't have the nomination sewn-up by any means.
● ME-Sen: Maine's first lady Ann LePage, a Republican, confirmed on Friday that Steve Bannon had indeed approached her about running for Senate next year, but LePage said she "didn't take it very serious." Nevertheless, LePage didn't quite rule out running, but she claims she hasn't even discussed a possible campaign with Gov. Paul LePage in light of Bannon's request. Independent Sen. Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats, so far appears strongly favored to win a second term in this light-blue state.
Gubernatorial
● CA-Gov: Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, a Democrat, declared on Sunday that he wouldn't run for governor in 2018. Garcetti previously did not look likely to run, but hadn't quite ruled it out until now. Democrats already have a field with multiple heavyweight contenders: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Treasurer John Chiang, and former Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin.
● GA-Gov: Secretary of State Brian Kemp released a poll from the Wickers Group that shows what every other survey has found in the Republican primary for governor: Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle starts off with a sizable lead. The poll places Cagle in first with 34 percent, while Kemp takes just 13 percent, and no other Republican garners significant support. This is relatively similar to a mid-October poll from Landmark Communications, which had Cagle in first with 35 percent, but state Sen. Hunter Hill edged out Kemp by 9 percent to 7 percent for second place in that survey.
It's likely that Cagle's superior name recognition as the longtime lieutenant governor is responsible for much of his advantage, and Kemp's memo argues that this support is consequently soft. However, it remains to be seen whether Kemp and the rest of the GOP field can indeed cut into Cagle's lead if or when they can increase their own name recognition.
● IL-Gov: Republican state Rep. Jeanne Ives recently confirmed that she is indeed circulating petitions to try to make it onto next year's primary ballot against Gov. Bruce Rauner, but she is still publicly undecided on whether to run. WGN News relays via an anonymous GOP source that Ives is trying to raise $1 million before officially joining the race. Rauner has angered many in the party over recently signing a law that allows public funding of abortion services, but it's unclear just how serious the threat of a primary challenge is to the self-funding incumbent.
Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Chicago-area Rep. Mike Quigley endorsed billionaire venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker. Pritzker appears to be the frontrunner in primary that includes wealthy businessman Chris Kennedy and state Sen. Daniel Biss.
● MD-Gov: EMILY's List, a prominent group that supports electing more pro-choice Democratic women to office, endorsed policy consultant Maya Rockeymoore Cummings in next year's Democratic primary for governor of Maryland. Rockeymoore Cummings is a first-time candidate, but her husband is longtime Baltimore Rep. Elijah Cummings, and she has long experience working in politics and public policy that give her considerable connections.
EMILY's endorsement is also significant since the crowded field includes one other notable woman: Krishanti Vignarajah, who was previously the policy director for then-first lady Michelle Obama. They both face a primary that includes Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, state Sen. Richard Madaleno, former NAACP president Ben Jealous, tech entrepreneur Alec Ross, and prominent attorney Jim Shea.
● NJ-Gov: With just a week left in the race, Suffolk's final gubernatorial poll finds Democrat Phil Murphy is still cruising to an easy win over Republican Kim Guadagno. Their latest survey has Murphy trouncing Guadagno by 49-33, which is only a slight dip in margin from their late September poll, where Murphy led by 44-25.
● OH-Gov: Unsurprisingly, state Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill finally acknowledged he will run in the Democratic primary for governor next year, although he won't officially launch his campaign until February due to state ethics rules. O'Neill faces mandatory retirement age next year and had previously expressed his frustration with the quality of candidates in the current Democratic field as well as the state of the party itself. He had previously said he wouldn't run against Richard Cordray, who is director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and O'Neill's entry into the race could be a sign that Cordray himself won't run.
In addition to O'Neill, the current Democratic primary field includes Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, former Rep. Betty Sutton, state Sen. Joe Schiavoni, and former state Rep. Connie Pillich. Meanwhile, another notable Democrat still hasn't made up his mind. Talk-show host Jerry Springer, a former Cincinnati mayor, recently told Democrats at a local party event that he still hasn't decided whether he'll run for governor. Springer had previously said he would decide soon in late August, but that timeline came and went with no decision reached.
● RI-Gov: Businessman Ken Block recently announced that he won't run for governor as a Republican again, but didn't rule out doing so as an independent. Block was the 2014 GOP primary runner-up, losing by 55-45 to Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, a more conservative Republican who went on to narrowly lose the general election for an open seat against Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo. Block had previously run for governor in 2010 under the banner of the self-founded Moderate Party, but took just 6 percent. However, if he runs again as an independent or third-party candidate, he could once again potentially play spoiler in a tight race.
● VA-Gov: Regardless of the outcome of next week's gubernatorial election in Virginia, one thing seems certain: At least one pollster is going to wake up with a lot of egg on their face. Quinnipiac is the latest to release a poll that's significantly different from the consensus of other surveys, with their late-October numbers giving Democrat Ralph Northam a 53-36 landslide over Republican Ed Gillespie. While that's only slightly larger than the 53-39 lead Northam earned in their mid-October poll, Quinnipiac has consistently found larger margins for Northam than nearly any other pollster. Neither party is acting like we're on the verge of a blowout here, and other pollsters have typically found a much slimmer Northam advantage.
In a sign that things very much aren't over yet, the Latino Victory Fund drops the hammer on Republican Ed Gillespie in a minute-long ad that calls out his campaign's racist fear-mongering. The spot features a diverse group of children running for their lives as a pickup truck with a Gillespie bumper sticker and flying the Confederate Battle Flag chases them through their neighborhood and city. As the truck corners them and is closing in, the kids each awake in bed from their nightmare. A narrator then asks, "Is this what Donald Trump and Ed Gillespie mean by 'the American Dream?'" as two parents watch footage of September's deadly white-supremacist rally in Charlottesville.
House
● HI-01: State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim is the first notable Democrat to file to run to succeed Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in this dark-blue Honolulu district, although Kim did not officially announce whether she is indeed running or not. Kim previously ran for this seat the last time it was open in 2014 and earned the endorsement of EMILY's List, but she came in a distant second place against then-state Rep. Mark Takai in a crowded field.
Kim had previously served as state Senate president, but she may have trouble convincing Democratic primary voters that she's the right person for the House. She voted against same-sex marriage when the legislature passed it in 2013, and Kim's colleagues removed her from her leadership role in 2015. A few other Democrats have expressed interest in this race.
● NH-01: The field to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter grew larger recently after Democratic state Rep. Mark MacKenzie announced he would run. Although he's one of just 400 state representatives, MacKenzie is the former longtime president of the state chapter of the AFL-CIO, and his labor ties could make him a formidable candidate in a Democratic primary. MacKenzie was also previously a convention delegate for Bernie Sanders, who easily won the Granite State in last year's primary.
MacKenzie won't have the Democratic field to himself, though. Already in the running are former Somersworth Mayor Lincoln Soldati, retired Army Capt. Terence O'Rourke, and former Department of Veterans Affairs official Maura Sullivan. This swingy eastern New Hampshire district flipped from 50-49 Obama to 48-47 Trump and should be competitive in the general election.
● NJ-03: Republican Rep. Tom MacArthur earned infamy this spring when the ostensibly moderate congressman helped craft a deal with the far-right Freedom Caucus that allowed the House to pass a bill that would repeal Obamacare—legislation that had been on death's door before MacArthur's intervention. However, the only Democrat campaigning for this seat isn't quite reaping a financial whirlwind. Andrew Kim, who was a national security expert in the Obama administration, raised only $138,000 during the third quarter, and at the end of September, MacArthur posted an $865,000 to $216,000 cash-on-hand edge.
Kim's war-chest might suffice in another race, but due to its unusual geography, New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District is probably the most expensive House in America to campaign in. A little over 40 percent of this district's population lives in the New York City media market, where TV time is incredibly costly, while the balance lives in the Philadelphia market, which also isn't cheap. So if you plan to air ads on television and want to blanket the entire district, you have to advertise in not one but two very pricey media markets. It's a luxury few candidates can afford, but MacArthur is one of them. The wealthy congressman poured $9.5 million of his own money into his initial House bid in 2014, something he can likely do again if he feels threatened next year. Kim, so far as we know, doesn't have that same ability.
As we wrote when we posted our third-quarter fundraising chart earlier this month, while we take note of who's outraising whom, what often matters more is which contenders will have the resources to get their message out and which won't. MacArthur could lose even if he outspends his opponent, but he's very unlikely to go down if voters mostly just see ads talking about how great he is while his role in reviving the Trumpcare zombie gets scant attention.
It doesn't help Kim that this district, which stretches across a swath of Central and South Jersey, swung well to the right last year: Barack Obama had carried the 3rd 52-47 in 2012, but Donald Trump won it 51-45. Republicans also usually do well here down-ballot: Democrats held the predecessor of this seat for just a single term last decade before giving it back in the GOP wave of 2010. This is a seat Democrats would very much love to fight for, but Kim or another Democrat will need to step up their fundraising to make this race a competitive one.
● OH-07: Republican Rep. Bob Gibbs has had little to worry about since his initial 2010 win, but this time, he does have a Democratic foe with some resources. Retired Navy pilot Ken Harbaugh, who ran a disaster relief organization, raised close to $200,000 during the second quarter of the year, and he took in another $182,000 from July to September. Gibbs brought in a similar $178,000 for this quarter, but he had a $1.23 million to $282,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of September.
No matter what, it's going to take a lot to put this gerrymandered district into play. Gibbs' very contorted seat, which loops around to take up Canton, part of the Cleveland area, and other communities, went from a tough 54-44 Romney to 62-33 Trump. Still, Harbaugh looks like an interesting candidate (even if he shares a last name with University of Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh, Ohio State's nemesis), and if there is a backlash against Trump in Trumpy seats like this, he could make things interesting.
● OH-16: With Republican Rep. Jim Renacci leaving to run for governor, Team Red has a competitive primary for this 56-39 Trump seat. Anthony Gonzalez, a former Ohio State football player who went on to play for the Indianapolis Colts, only entered the race in early September, about a month before the end of the quarter. But Gonzalez, who recently left as chief operating officer for an education technology company, raised a strong $523,000 during his first few weeks in the race and self-funded another $100,000, and he had $612,000 on-hand at the end of the quarter.
State Rep. Tom Patton, a former state Senate majority leader, brought in a smaller, but still credible, $278,000 during his opening quarter, and he had $248,000 in the bank. Fellow state Rep. Christina Hagan only raised $35,000 during this time, however, and while Hagan has been running since April, she had just $123,000 on-hand. Hagan was a vigorous Trump supporter during the primary at a time when much of the state GOP establishment lined up behind Gov. John Kasich, and if she won, she'd be the youngest woman to ever get elected to Congress. This seat, which awkwardly takes up areas around Cleveland, Akron, and Canton, was drawn to elect a Republican, and no notable Democrats sound ready to run here.
● OK-05: Democrats haven't made a serious push for this Oklahoma City seat in a long, long, long time, and that may not change this cycle. Still, this district went from 59-41 Romney to a smaller 53-40 Trump, still very red, but a bit less brutal. Oklahoma Democrats also have notably pulled off tough wins in recent special elections in red seats, and the state's awful budget situation could give Team Blue an opening in next year's race to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Mary Fallin.
Democrat Kendra Horn, who has led groups that encourage women to run for office, narrowly outraised sophomore Republican Rep. Steve Russell $91,000 to $90,000 during her first quarter in the race, and Russell's $155,000 to $59,000 cash-on-hand edge is hardly overwhelming. It's going to take a lot more to put this seat on the radar, but if 2018 is a good Democratic year and Oklahoma Republicans continue to have problems, this could be one to watch at long last.
● PA-06: Sophomore Republican Rep. Ryan Costello waltzed to victory in 2014 and 2016, but Democrats were encouraged when this suburban Philadelphia seat swung from 51-48 Romney to 48.2-47.6 Clinton. Chrissy Houlahan, a retired Air Force officer who served as an executive at footwear company AND1, jumped in back in April, and she's proving to be a strong fundraiser. Houlahan raised $332,000 during the third quarter, and she took in an additional $45,000 from supporters via a special vehicle called the Serve America Victory Fund from a fundraiser organized by Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (we explain why we categorize that donation separately here). Houlahan has little to worry about in the primary, since construction company executive Bob Dettore hasn't even opened up a fundraising committee with the FEC.
However, Costello is also a formidable fundraiser, and he's had a while to hoard his cash. Costello raised $387,000 during the quarter, not much different than Houlahan's haul; however, Houlahan had a $1.19 million to $662,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of September. Still, it looks like Houlahan will have the resources to make a serious play for this elusive seat.
● PA-16: Last year, Republican Lloyd Smucker won an open seat race against Democrat Christina Hartman 54-43 as Trump was winning this district 51-44, and Hartman is back for a rematch. Hartman, who has worked as a non-profit consultant, announced her second bid in July and outraised Smucker $198,000 to $147,000 over the quarter; Smucker had a modest $236,000 to $143,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of September.
A few other Democrats are running, but they're trailing Hartman in the money race. Non-profit head Jessica King, who began raising money at the end of June, brought in $98,000 for the quarter and had $56,000 on-hand, while former local school superintendent John George had only $6,000 in the bank.
To say that this area, which includes almost all of Lancaster County and pieces of Berks and Chester Counties in suburban Philadelphia, is ancestrally Republican is a massive understatement. Since 1832, when the modern Democratic Party was founded, a Lancaster County-based district has not been represented by a Democrat ever. The Anti-Masonic Party (which was exactly what it said on the tin) and the Whigs have represented most of Lancaster more recently than a Democrat, and the Republicans have held the seat since the 1856 elections.
But this seat isn't overwhelmingly red at the top of the ticket, and Obama even narrowly carried it in 2008. Smucker's clear win last year underscores how tough it will be to flip this district, but Hartman looks like she'll have the resources to put up a fight.
● PA-17: Republicans drew up this seat, which includes Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and part of the Harrisburg area, to take in as many Democrats as possible order to protect nearby Republican incumbents. But this district swung hard right last year, going from 55-43 Obama to 53-43 Trump, and Republicans are a bit more interested in targeting Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright than before. John Chrin, a former JP Morgan managing director, entered the race in June, and while he only raised $52,000 during the third quarter, he self-funded another $263,000. Chrin, who did some self-funding last quarter as well, had $623,000 on-hand at the end of September.
Cartwright himself seems to be taking this race seriously, since he raised $317,000 during the quarter; Cartwright had $1.28 million on-hand. But while Chrin may have the ability to throw down plenty of money, he may not be the best fit for a seat with a large working-class population. When Chrin launched his campaign, he still lived in the very affluent community of Short Hills, which just happens to be in New Jersey. However, Chrin does own a house in his hometown of Fountain Hill, which is just outside the 17th District (but on the correct side of the state line).
● SC-01: If the GOP establishment is pissed at Rep. Mark Sanford for his unpredictable behavior and frequent criticisms of Trump, they're not exactly showing it with their pocketbooks. State Rep. Katie Arrington raised just $52,000 during her first quarter in the race and self-funded another $67,000, leaving her with $83,000 in the bank. Sanford himself only raised $84,000 for the quarter, but the notoriously frugal congressman is sitting on $1.47 million. That will buy a few double-sided Post-it-notes.
However, self-proclaimed "dead man walking" Sanford is far from out of his treadmill coffin. Sanford beat another poorly funded primary foe just 56-44 last year, and that was before mouthing off about Trump was the third rail in GOP politics. Other Republicans may also run, and because South Carolina requires a runoff if no one takes a majority, the clown-car wouldn't save Sanford.
This coastal seat, which includes part of the Charleston area, backed Trump 54-40, so it's likely to stay red no matter what happens in the primary. But unlike either Republican, attorney Joe Cunningham did actually break the $100,000 mark for the quarter without any self-funding. Cunningham, a Democrat, raised $105,000 in his first quarter, though he had only $49,000 left to spend.
● SD-AL: For months, two notable candidates have been competing in the GOP primary to succeed gubernatorial candidate Kristi Noem, and neither one has much of a financial edge. Secretary of State Shantel Krebs outraised former Public Utilities Commissioner Dusty Johnson, a former chief of staff to Gov. Dennis Daugaard, $133,000 to $109,000 in the third quarter. However, Johnson held a $351,000 to $311,000 cash-on-hand edge. On the Democratic side, former state court Judge Tim Bjorkman entered the race in July and raised $72,000 from donors and self-funded another $50,000, leaving him with $96,000 in the bank. South Dakota backed Trump 62-32 and national Democrats haven't shown much of an interest yet in seriously contesting this seat.
● TN-02: So far, two notable Republicans are competing to succeed retiring Rep. Jimmy Duncan in a safely red East Tennessee seat that has been in GOP hands since before the Civil War. Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett outraised state Rep. Jimmy Matlock $141,000 to $92,000 in what was both of their opening quarters, but thanks to a $75,000 loan, Matttttlooooook!!! has a $152,000 to $114,000 cash-on-hand edge. About 60 percent of this seat is in Burchett's constituency, so he likely starts out with a huge name-recognition edge that it will take a lot of money to eat into.
● TN-06: With Republican Rep. Diane Black leaving to run for governor, two notable Republicans are so far competing for her safely red Middle Tennessee seat. John Rose, a businessman who briefly served as state agriculture commissioner, so far has a huge financial edge over state Rep. Judd Matheny, aka the guy who once drove into a flower shop. Rose outraised Matheny $292,000 to $167,000 and self-funded another $250,000, leaving him with a dominant $468,000 to $104,000 cash-on-hand edge.
● WA-05: This Eastern Washington seat, which stretches from the Oregon border to the Canadian border, backed Trump 52-39, but Democrats have an interesting candidate against GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Lisa Brown, who previously served as a state Senate majority leader, resigned as chancellor of Washington State University Spokane shortly before she entered the race in September, and she raised $224,000 in her opening quarter. As a member of the House GOP leadership, however, McMorris Rodgers won't lack cash. McMorris Rodgers took in $292,000 during the quarter, and she had a $732,000 to $197,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of September
● WI-01: Speaker Paul Ryan has never had a close race in his two decades in office, but this year, one Democratic candidate is raising far more cash than any of Ryan's previous foes ever have. Ironworker Randy Bryce, who has unsuccessfully run for the state legislature twice before, pulled in an enormous $1 million from donors during the third quarter of 2017, more money than any non-incumbent in a House race anywhere in the country this cycle. Bryce was able to do this by taking full advantage of the opportunities he created for himself: Since bursting on to the national scene with a poignant launch video that instantly went viral, he's parlayed his heightened profile into a successful fundraising operation that's made the most of Ryan's status as a top GOP villain.
But Bryce is not the only Democrat running against Ryan, though he's the only one to catch fire. While Bryce was busy hauling in seven figures, Cathy Myers, a Janesville School Board member, managed to take in just $54,000. Ryan, however, is the last politician in America who will need to worry about being outspent. Not only is he a prodigious fundraiser for his party (a key reason why he's speaker now), he also makes sure to take care of himself: At the end of September, he held a commanding $10.4 million to $1 million cash-on-hand edge over Bryce. Still, though, Bryce will have plenty of money to get his message out on TV if he's the Democratic nominee.
But as we often see with first-time congressional candidates, Bryce just showed us that he's capable of wounding himself. Over the weekend, Bryce tweeted a picture tweeted a picture of Ivanka Trump with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau captioned, "Don't worry @jaredkushner regardless of what might go down - she'll be okay. #MuellerTime." It's hard to know what exactly Bryce meant by this—Toronto Star reporter Daniel Dale said it sounded like Bryce was "suggest[ing] Ivanka will hook up with Trudeau, or something, if her husband gets arrested")—but whatever he had in mind, the reaction was sharply negative.
Myers, who also flagged that Bryce had referred to Trump as a "succubus" on Twitter last year, called on her opponent to delete his tweets, but remarkably, Bryce has not yet done so. Given his newfound celebrity and considerable war-chest, Bryce is very likely to beat Myers in the Democrat primary, but despite the speaker's deep national unpopularity, Bryce will still face long odds in the general election. Ryan's district moved to the right last year, going from a 52-47 win for Mitt Romney in 2012 to a 53-42 victory for Donald Trump, so it will take everything going right and then some for Bryce to beat the incumbent. That means Bryce can't afford to make any mistakes, so he should take Myers' advice, apologize, and go back to whaling on Paul Ryan.
● WI-08: Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher decisively won an open seat contest as this Green Bay-area seat went from 51-48 Romney to 56-39 Trump, and so far, Democrats don't have a candidate who can put up a fight if it swings back. Former Brown County prosecutor Beau Liegeois entered the race in mid-September and raised just $16,000 over the next few weeks.
Mayoral
● Detroit, MI Mayor: We haven't discussed next week's non-partisan general election much, and a new Target-Insyght gives poll for MIRS News indicates there won't be much to watch. Mayor Mike Duggan leads state Sen. Coleman Young II, a fellow Democrat and the son of the late Mayor Coleman Young, 63-28.
Other Races
● IL-AG, IL-Gov: Former Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn had refused to rule out seeking his old job back in January, but never seemed particularly likely to go for it. Now, Quinn has instead joined the race for state attorney general to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Lisa Madigan next year. That move is unlikely to please state Democrats if he wins the nomination, since the former governor lost his re-election bid 50-46 to Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner in 2014 and left office deeply unpopular.
● Nassau County, NY Executive: We have our first two polls of next week's race to lead this large Long Island County. Republican Jack Martins dropped a Clout Research survey giving him a 47-41 lead, while Democrat Laura Curran responded with a Global Strategy Group survey giving her a 43-39 edge.
Martins' poll was in the field Oct. 25-26 while GSG's survey was done Oct. 16-19, so make of that what you will. As we've noted before, we're very much not fans of Clout Research, aka the pollster formally known as Wenzel Strategies. Clout notably performed very badly in the 2012 cycle, and while they haven't produced any high-profile stinkers since they, they've otherwise displayed some strange habits. Of course, even if Clout is up to their old tricks, GSG indicates this is far from a slam dunk for Curran. While Nassau backed Clinton 51-45, Republicans still do well down-ballot here.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: Ex-Rep. James Martin, an Alabama Republican who narrowly lost a tight 1962 Senate race and soon was elected to his first and only term in the House, died on Monday at the age of 98. Martin, a veteran of World War II, struck it rich in the oil business and got involved in what became the Alabama Business Council. In 1962, Martin decided that Alabama's conservative but all-Democratic congressional delegation "had voted for things we were against, and against things we were for," and he decided to challenge Sen. Lister Hill as a Republican.
Alabama Republicans had little power in the state, but Martin later said he "knew that if the South could develop a competitive Republican Party, it wouldn't just change Alabama but change the entire U.S.," and while he lost to Hill, he proved to be right in the long term. Hill had arrived in the Senate in 1938 and had dispatched his last GOP foe 82-17. However, Martin tied him to the Kennedy administration, which was widely unpopular with white voters in the Deep South. Martin argued that Hill was the "number one Kennedy man" in the South and that Alabamans should "show the Kennedys we will not be kicked around any longer."
Hill, sensing how much trouble he was in, assailed the administration for sending troops to the University of Mississippi that year to protect James Meredith, the first African-American admitted to the school. Martin may well have won if the Cuban Missile Crisis hadn't overshadowed everything in the final weeks of the race. As it was, Hill only pulled off a 51-49 victory. It would take another 18 years for Alabama to elect a GOP senator.
Martin soon got his chance to go to Congress. As Republican Barry Goldwater was easily carrying the state in the presidential race, Martin beat a Democratic state legislator to win a seat located between Huntsville and Birmingham 60-40. Alabama had never elected a Republican to Congress since Reconstruction, but the state's House delegation flipped from eight Democrats to five-to-three Republican. But Martin didn't stay in D.C. for long, and he ran to replace termed-out Democratic Gov. George Wallace in 1966. The governor ran his wife Lurleen Wallace as a proxy for him, and she beat Martin 64-31. Martin later admitted launching a gubernatorial bid just after winning his House seat was "a big mistake."
Martin ran for the Senate again in 1972 but badly lost the primary, and he lost a 1978 special election for the Senate 55-43 to Democrat Donald Stewart. Martin did get a job in state government with Guy Hunt, who in 1986 became the first Republican to be elected governor since Reconstruction. Martin served as commissioner of the Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, and he is credited for creating the Forever Wild program to purchase public recreational lands through oil and gas leases. Martin did run for office one more time, with him losing the 1994 general election for state treasurer 50.03-49.93 to Democrat Lucy Baxley.
