I didn't do a report last week because I spent the week on other sites delivering harangues regarding the Super Bowl. Never before in my 34 years on planet Earth have I been more pissed about a Super Bowl result. I didn't even get this pissed when my Pittsburgh Steelers lost the Super Bowl four years ago.
But you're not here to hear about football. You're here for some more fun with gerrymandering. All of that, plus Andy Rooney, are beyond the orange squiggle.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Part 2 -- Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire
Part 3 -- Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska
Part 4 -- West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada
Part 5 -- Utah, Kansas, West Virginia
Part 6 -- Mississippi, Iowa
All three of today's states would gain three seats.
We're starting with Connecticut. You guys are definitely going to love this state because this is the second largest state that would have an all-Democratic delegation.
1st District (blue): Greenwich, Stamford, Norwalk, Westport, and Trumbull. Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob) lives in this 57.7% Obama district. Safe D
2d District (green): This district runs along the eastern border of the 1st. It goes from Bridgeport to Danbury. Although Connecticut is sometimes viewed as an overwhelmingly white state, this district has a pretty decent sized minority population (34%). This is an open seat that went 60.8% for President Obama in 2008. Safe D
3d District (purple): From the northwest corner, we see Litchfield County, Waterbury, and Meriden. This is the lightest blue of the Nutmeg State's eight new districts, with a 54.9% Obama rating. Elizabeth Esty (D-Cheshire) is the incumbent, so she should be just fine. Lean D
4th District (red): Central New Haven County, including Hamden and the western parts of the city of New Haven. Open seat. 58.8% Obama. Safe D
5th District (gold): Most of West Haven is here, along with Middletown. 62.2% Obama. Rosa DeLauro (D-New Haven) has a choice to run here or the 4th, but she would likely run here. She's safe in either district. Safe D
6th District (teal): Hartford's suburbs, including Bristol and New Britain. John Larson (D-East Hartford) can run for as long as he wants in this 63.3% Obama district. Safe D
7th District (dark gray): Hartford, Windsor, Enfield, and northern Tolland County. This is the bluest district--67.8% Obama. Joe Courtney (D-Vernon) is a sure winner, election after election. Safe D
8th District (slate blue): The final district is an open seat. It's the eastern third of the state. New London and Norwich are the main cities here. 59.7% Obama. Safe D
10 Electoral Votes: Safe D
OK, let's get Oklahoma out of the way now. One of the reddest states in America.
1st District (blue): Oklahoma City and Norman. Thanks to this district being 50.4% minority, we have an actual blue district in Okla-freakin'-homa! 54.6% Obama, if you can believe that. Two incumbents--Tom Cole (R-Moore) and Steve Russell (R-Del City)--live here, but I highly doubt that either one of them would dare run here. They're going to fight it out in the 2d District instead. Lean D
But that's all, folks. No more Democratic districts in this state.
2d District (green): Oklahoma City suburbs. 68.1% McCain. Longtime incumbent Cole will probably beat newbie Russell in the primary, where the winner will go on to trounce the Democratic Jesus. Safe R
3d District (purple): Northwestern Oklahoma, including the panhandle. Enid is really the only notable city here. Although this is an ancestrally Democratic district, it won't be Democratic again any time soon. Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne) can serve until he dies in this 76.5% McCain district. Safe R
4th District (red): Southwest corner. Lawton and Ardmore are the major cities. This 69.3% McCain open district is a free ride for any Republican. Safe R
5th District (gold): Central Oklahoma. Stillwater and Ada. 68.4% McCain open seat. Safe R
6th District (teal): Tulsa. Even though this is a predominantly urban district, it's a conservative urban district. 57.2% McCain. Jim Bridenstine (R-Tulsa) won't be going anywhere. Safe R
7th District (dark gray): Northeast corner. Broken Arrow, Bartlesville, and the Osage Tribe. It's an open seat, and it's deep red. 70.9% McCain. Safe R
8th District (slate blue): Southeast corner. Muskogee and McAlester. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) is safe in this ancestrally Democratic, yet 65.2% McCain, district. Safe R
10 Electoral Votes: Safe R
We're finishing with Oregon. As I stated before, Dave's Redistricting Application does not have election data for Oregon. I am making estimates on the partisan tilts of these eight districts based on the official votes from each county in the 2008 election.
Close-up of northwestern Oregon:
1st District (blue): Downtown Portland. Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland) would definitely run here. Portland is a good progressive city, so this district should be undoubtedly Safe D.
2d District (green): Open seat. Portland suburbs out to Tillamook and McMinnville. These counties in the northwest are light blue, so this district should be Lean D.
3d District (purple): Eastern Washington County. These are some more of the Portland suburbs. Beaverton is the anchor, and the home of Suzanne Bonamici (D). This part of the county is reliably blue, so this looks like another Safe D.
4th District (red): Clackamas County, extreme eastern Yamhill County, and northern Linn County. This is essentially the southern Portland suburbs. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) lives in this district. The southern Portland suburbs are more moderate than the rest, so I rate this a Tossup, even with the Democratic incumbent.
5th District (gold): Salem and Corvallis to the Pacific coast. Another moderate area of Oregon. This open seat is a Tossup.
6th District (teal): This district is centered on Eugene and Springfield. Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield) represents a mix of liberal and conservative, but a little more liberal than conservative. Lean D
7th District (dark gray): Southwestern Oregon, with a tendril into Klamath Falls. This section of the Pacific coast is more conservative than upstate. Lean R
8th District (slate blue): Oregon's largest and most conservative district. This is roughly two-thirds of the state's total area. Greg Walden (R-Hood River) can continue to run and win here. Safe R
10 Electoral Votes: Should be Safe D
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AR, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 35 (added CT-1, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, CT-6, CT-7, CT-8, OR-1, OR-3)
Lean D: 17 (added CT-3, OK-1, OR-2, OR-6)
Tossup: 7 (added OR-4, OR-5)
Lean R: 7 (added OR-7)
Safe R: 35 (added OK-2, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OK-6, OK-7, OK-8, OR-8)
Total: 52 D, 7 Toss, 42 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 32 (added CT-1, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, CT-6, CT-7, CT-8, OR-1, OR-3)
Lean D: 14 (added CT-3, OK-1, OR-2, OR-6)
Tossup: 8 (added OR-4, OR-5)
Lean R: 9 (added OR-7)
Safe R: 38 (added OK-2, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OK-6, OK-7, OK-8, OR-8)
Total: 46 D, 8 Toss, 47 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AR, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8) = 31
Tossup: NE (1) = 1
Lean R: MT (4) = 4
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 73
Total: 71 D, 1 Toss, 77 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7) = 14
Tossup: IA (9), NV (8) = 17
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1) = 5
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 73
Total: 54 D, 17 Toss, 78 R