Election-wise, 2017 may be an off-year for much of the country, but we still have plenty of exciting—and important—races to watch on Tuesday. At the top of the list is Virginia: Democrats and Republicans are battling for the governor's mansion, and Team Blue is also hoping to make major gains in the GOP-held state House. We also have several intense mayoral races in big cities, a couple of important ballot measures, and a crucial state Senate race in Washington that’s all that stands in the way of Democrats taking full control of state government.
What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday's most interesting and competitive contests, organized by poll closing times. Please note that all times are Eastern. We've left off some big city mayoral races like Boston and Detroit where we expect the incumbent mayor to easily win. (All mayoral races discussed below are for four-year terms unless otherwise noted.) We're also only highlighting a few of the many special legislative elections that will be on the ballot; for a complete summary of all the contests featuring one Democrat running against one Republican, check out Johnny Longtorso's chart. And for a list of all of Tuesday’s notable elections, please click here. We’ll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections, starting at 7 PM ET, and tweeting as well.
7 PM ET: Florida, New Hampshire & Virginia
Virginia: The Old Dominion will be the most-watched state on Tuesday. The biggest race is the contest to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe between Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie. Nearly all available public polls have given Northam a lead, but by a very wide range of margins, though most gather in the low single digits. On everyone’s minds, though, are the polls from 2013, when they badly underestimated the GOP in Virginia’s last gubernatorial election, so no one will rest easy until the votes are in.
A Gillespie victory would give Republicans full control of the state government and allow Team Red to once again gerrymander Virginia's congressional and legislative maps following the next census. Gillespie, who’s been badly outraised by Northam, has been running an overtly racist campaign arguing that Northam would make it harder to deport gangs like MS-13, and Republican strategists across the country will be watching closely to see how successful this line of attack is.
Virginia also has several down-ballot races worth watching. Democrat Justin Fairfax, a former federal prosecutor, is facing GOP state Sen. Jill Vogel to succeed Northam as lieutenant governor. If Fairfax wins, he would be the second African-American to ever win statewide office here. The winner of this contest could also play a huge part in Virginia politics in the next few years. The GOP holds just a 21-to-19 majority in the state Senate, and if Democrats can net just one seat when the chamber is next up in 2019, the lieutenant governor would get to break ties. Meanwhile, Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring is also seeking re-election against Republican John Adams. Limited polling has generally shown both Fairfax and Herring leading their respective races.
And while the Senate isn’t up this year, the entire 100-member state House is. Thanks in large part to gerrymandering, the GOP holds a dominant 66-to-34 majority, and while it's very unlikely Democrats will get close to winning the 17 seats they’d need to take control on Tuesday, Team Blue’s candidate recruitment was unusually strong this year and they’re poised for some real gains that could set them up for bigger things in 2019. Carolyn Fiddler recently ran down the key contests to watch. Perhaps the most interesting is in Northern Virginia's 13th District, where infamous GOP Del. Bob Marshall faces former journalist Danica Roem. Roem would be the first openly transgender person to serve in any legislative chamber in America, and Marshall has been running a nakedly transphobic campaign against her.
Florida: The contest to watch in the Sunshine State is in St. Petersburg, where Democratic Mayor Rick Kriseman faces a challenge from one of his Republican predecessors, Rick Baker. Baker left office in 2010 very popular, and while St. Petersburg usually backs Democrats, Baker is a rare Republican with a strong base of support with black voters. In August, Kriseman just barely outpaced Baker by a 48.4-48.2 margin in the nonpartisan primary, a big win since polls had shown Baker well ahead. Kriseman has tried to tie Baker to Donald Trump and other national Republicans, while both candidates have also been blaming the other for the sorry state of this coastal city's sewage system. We're expecting another close race.
New Hampshire: In 2015, Manchester GOP Mayor Ted Gatsas beat Democrat Joyce Craig by 85 votes to win another two-year term as head of this swing state's largest city. Craig is back for a rematch, and she led Gatsas 53-46 in September’s nonpartisan primary. That’s a very encouraging sign for Craig, because she had trailed by 5 points in the primary two years ago yet almost wiped out that entire gap in November. If Craig wins, expect to hear her mentioned as a future candidate for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District or for statewide office.
7:30 PM ET: North Carolina & Ohio
North Carolina: Mayoral races are taking place across North Carolina, and we're closely watching the battle for Charlotte, the state’s largest city. In 2009, Democrat Anthony Foxx ended 22 years of GOP control, but Republican City Councilor Kenny Smith is hoping to take back city hall. Smith will face Mayor Pro Tem Vi Lyles, who knocked off Mayor Jennifer Roberts in the Democratic primary. Roberts had a very turbulent two years as mayor, and Smith is hoping that her unpopularity will rub off on Lyles. Smith also enjoys a large fundraising edge. While Charlotte is usually a reliably blue city in state and federal races, moderate Republican Edwin Peacock lost just 53-47 in 2013 and 52-48 in 2015, though Smith is considerably more conservative. A recent poll from SurveyUSA gave Lyles just a narrow 41-40 edge.
Over in Raleigh, North Carolina’s second-biggest city, left-leaning independent Mayor Nancy McFarlane faces a challenge from Democratic attorney Charles Francis for another two-year term. While McFarlane had always won with ease, she only led Francis 49-37 in the October nonpartisan primary, just below the majority she needed to win outright. However, McFarlane is still the favorite, and Francis even considered dropping out just after the primary.
Ohio: Three mayors from across Ohio are facing credible challenges from fellow Democrats this year. In Cleveland, Mayor Frank Jackson is seeking an unprecedented fourth term. Jackson led City Councilor Zack Reed 39-22 in the September primary; City Councilor Jeff Johnson, who took third with 15 percent, immediately endorsed Reed. Reed has argued that Jackson has not done enough to deal with the city’s high crime rate, and that he's focused too much on improving downtown at the expense of the city's neighborhoods.
To the west in Toledo, Mayor Paula Hicks-Hudson led Lucas County Treasurer Wade Kapszukiewicz just 39-34 in the August nonpartisan primary. Kapszukiewicz, who has decisively outspent the incumbent, has argued that Hicks-Hudson, who previously led the city council, has done a poor job keeping track of the city's money.
In Cincinnati, City Councilor Yvette Simpson led Mayor John Cranley 45-35 in the May nonpartisan primary even after Cranley overwhelmingly outspent her. Cranley has a reputation for being difficult to work with, and Simpson has made his ties to developers an issue. If Simpson wins, she would be the city's first African American female mayor.
8 PM ET: Georgia, Maine, Michigan & New Jersey
Georgia: The big race in Georgia is the nonpartisan primary to succeed Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed. City Councilor Mary Norwood, one of the rare politicians who identifies as an independent in this very blue city, narrowly lost to Reed in 2009, and she's running again. The polls consistently show Norwood taking first place but nowhere close to taking the majority she’d need to avoid a December runoff. In recent weeks, limited polling has shown City Councilor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who has Reed's endorsement, taking the other runoff spot. Several other Democrats are running, and former city Chief Operating Officer Peter Aman and City Council President Ceasar Mitchell look like the other contenders with the best chance to reach the second round. Norwood and Aman would be Atlanta's first white mayor since the early 1970s, while Bottoms and Mitchell are both black.
There are also several special elections for the Georgia state legislature on Tuesday, with the race for the 6th Senate District of particular importance. This Atlanta-area seat swung hard against Trump last year, backing Clinton 55-40, and if Democrats can flip it, they'll break the GOP's veto-proof supermajority in the chamber. Five Republicans and three Democrats are on the ballot, and in the very likely event that no one takes a majority, there will be a runoff between the top two vote-getters, regardless of party. Daily Kos is backing attorney Jen Jordan. Note that the polls in the Cobb County portion of this seat close at 7 PM ET.
Maine: Notorious GOP Gov. Paul LePage has vetoed several attempts to expand Medicaid in Maine, and activists have responded by putting expansion (known as Question 2) on Tuesday's ballot. We haven’t seen a single reliable poll testing this ballot measure, but polling across the nation has consistently shown wide support for Medicaid expansion in general. If the pro-expansion "yes" side wins, Maine would become the 32nd state to expand the program under Obamacare.
Michigan: One special legislative election to watch is the battle for House District 109, a seat in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. This district had voted for Barack Obama by a 53-45 margin, but like the state as a whole, last year it swung toward Donald Trump, who won it 49-45. Republicans control 63 of the 110 seats in the Michigan House, but a Democratic win on turf like this could point the way toward a resurgence next year. The candidates are Democrat Sara Cambensy and Republican Rich Rossway.
Over in Detroit, Mayor Mike Duggan should have little trouble beating state Sen. Coleman Young II, a fellow Democrat, but there is one race to watch. City Clerk Janice Winfrey faces a challenge from Garlin Gilchrist, the city's technology director (both are Democrats). Detroit in particular earned awful headlines for its botched handling of the last year’s presidential elections, with a post-election audit concluding that "an abundance of human errors" by election administrators contributed to the problem. Gilchrist is consequently challenging Winfrey on a platform of modernizing the city's election administration and improving access to voting.
New Jersey: New Jersey will elect a new governor to succeed the termed-out Republican Chris Christie, whose unpopularity has reached legendary proportions, and there's very little doubt that this seat will change hands. Democrat Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive and ambassador to Germany, has been crushing GOP Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno in every single poll by wide margins.
The entire state legislature is also up, but Democrats should have no problem keeping their dominant majorities in both the Assembly and Senate. However, one legislative race to keep an eye on is the battle between state Senate President Steve Sweeney and Republican Fran Grenier in the 3rd District in South Jersey. The New Jersey Education Association, which normally backs Democrats, is very angry with Sweeney for passing pension reform along with Christie in 2011, and they're spending heavily to beat him. Sweeney's allies, led by South Jersey political boss George Norcross, are in turn spending big to save him.
9 PM ET: Minnesota & New York
Minnesota: Minneapolis and St. Paul are hosting competitive mayoral races, and both of the Twin Cities use instant-runoff voting, where all candidates compete on one nonpartisan ballot and voters are allowed to rank their top three choices. If no one takes a majority of first-place votes, second and third choices are redistributed from the candidates with the fewest votes to those still remaining. The process continues until someone clears 50 percent.
In Minneapolis, Mayor Betsy Hodges faces a tough challenge from several fellow Democrats. Hodges's critics have long charged that she hasn’t done enough to challenge law enforcement and especially for her handling of incidents where police have shot unarmed civilians. Hodges's opponents have gone after her on the state of the police force, and they've also argued that downtown is unsafe. Two of them, City Councilor Jacob Frey and businessman Tom Hoch, have had the resources to air TV ads. Also in the mix are state Rep. Ray Dehn, who is close to Bernie Sanders's allies, and former Minneapolis NAACP President Nekima Levy-Pounds, a prominent member of the local Black Lives Matter movement.
Across the river in St. Paul, Mayor Chris Coleman is leaving to concentrate on his bid for governor. The three main candidates, who are all Democrats, are former City Councilor Melvin Carter III, who has Gov. Mark Dayton's support; former City Councilor Pat Harris, who is close to much of the city establishment; and City Councilor Dai Thao. Late in the race, the local police union argued that Carter didn't do enough to help them find two guns that were stolen from his home, and a PAC partially funded by the union went a step further, trying to link Carter’s actions to a rise in crime. Coleman, Dayton, and Harris all condemned the union, and Dayton went so far as to say that the attack on Carter, who is black, "injected that kind of negativity and that kind of racial bias into a mayor's race." Because ballots are hand-counted here, we may not know the winner for days.
New York: The race for mayor of New York City looks like it will be uneventful, with Democratic incumbent Bill de Blasio poised to easily win a second term. However, there are two important races to watch in each of the big suburban counties that border the city.
To the east in Nassau County, Democrats are trying to retake the county executive post they lost in 2009, when Republican Ed Mangano unexpectedly won. Mangano was indicted last fall on corruption charges and didn't run again after local Republicans flocked to ex-state Sen. Jack Martins, while Democrats nominated Nassau County Legislator Laura Curran. Corruption, unsurprisingly, has been a major issue, though Curran has focused more on tying Martins to former state Senate Leader Dean Skellos (whose own corruption conviction was vacated last month by an appeals court) more than to Mangano. Martins has also seized on the issue, though he emulated Ed Gillespie in Virginia and launched a racist mailer targeting Curran that featuring Latino gang members. A recent independent poll from Siena College gave Martins a 42-40 edge, and internal polls from both campaigns have shown a similarly close fight.
Just north of New York in Westchester County, Democratic state Sen. George Latimer is challenging GOP incumbent Rob Astorino, who was his party’s nominee for governor in 2014. Astorino has outspent Latimer and he's received help from a group generously funded by billionaire Trump megadonor Robert Mercer. While the Nassau candidates have mostly stayed away from national politics, Latimer has been trying to tie Astorino to Trump. A recent poll for local media gave Latimer a 46-43 edge.
There's also one statewide ballot measure to watch. Under New York law, a question automatically appears on the ballot every 20 years asking voters whether they want to hold a constitutional convention, through which changes could be made to the state constitution, and 2017 is the year. If the measure were to pass, elections for delegates would be held in 2018, followed by a convention the year after.
While it's universally agreed that the state government is dysfunctional and corrupt, a broad coalition of labor, environmental, and reproductive rights organizations, as well as some conservative groups, opposes the "con-con," arguing that special interests would be able to hijack the delegate elections and shred important rights found in the constitution. (It also doesn't help that the delegates would be chosen using the GOP-drawn state Senate districts.) A recent poll from Siena shows voters opposing a convention by a 57-25 margin.
10 PM ET: UTAH
Utah: Unfortunately, there isn't much to watch in the special election for Utah's very red 3rd Congressional District, the race that’s being held to replace former Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz. An October poll from Dan Jones & Associates gave Republican John Curtis, the mayor of Provo, a 46-19 lead over Democrat Katie Allen.
11 PM ET: WASHINGTON
Washington: Control of the Washington state Senate rests on the special election in the 4th District, a GOP-held seat in the Seattle suburbs. If Democrat Manka Dhingra defeats Republican Jinyoung Englund on Tuesday, Democrats would take the chamber back from the GOP, which only holds it thanks to a turncoat Democrat who caucuses with them. And if they’re successful, it would give Democrats control over the state’s entire government for the first time since 2012. Dhingra led Englund 51.5-41.5 in the August top-two primary for this seat, which backed Clinton 65-28 but often favors the GOP down-ballot. Washington’s top-two primary results tend to do a good job forecasting which party will win in November, so the results augured good things for Team Blue. However, this race is existential for Republicans, so they’ve been pouring big money in here, while Democrats have followed suit.
Seattle will also elect a new mayor on Tuesday to replace Ed Murray, who resigned after facing multiple allegations of sexual abuse surfaced. Former U.S. Attorney Jenny Durkan is the favorite of the state and local establishment, while urban planner and fellow Democrat Cary Moon is running as the outsider candidate. There has been little polling here, but Durkan and her allies have utterly dominated the money race.
