Daily Tracking Consensus: Obama +7

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Tuesday September 30, 2008 · 10:18 AM PDT

2008/09/30 · 10:18

Today's Daily Tracking Polls show a consensus result of Obama +7, combining the Research 2000/DKos Obama+10 with Obama+6 results from Gallup, Rasmussen, and Diageo/Hotline. On a straight-number basis, this ties his best result since the start of August, a composite of Gallup+Rasmussen O+7 at the peak of the DNC bounce.

Graphs and notes follow:

Rorgg

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Wednesday September 17, 2008 · 11:15 AM PDT

2008/09/17 · 11:15

Is the RNC/Palin bump over? Almost. But it's happening far too soon for them -- soon enough that suggests there may be significant movement toward Obama underneath the bump.

What does a bump look like? According to some nice work done by Poblano (aka Nate Silver) of fivethirtyeight.com a standard convention bounce looks like this:

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Rorgg

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Friday May 23, 2008 · 8:30 AM PDT

2008/05/23 · 08:30

Let's assume arguendo that the CNN report is true and that the Clinton camp has essentially offered to drop out of the campaign and given three options to the Obama campaign. According to the reports, the options were

Make Hillary the VP choice

Publicly offer Hillary the VP choice, which she will turn down (as negotiated)

Try to help her pay down some of her campaign debt.

Of course, there is a fourth option: say no. That's where the BATNA comes in.

Rorgg

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Wednesday May 21, 2008 · 7:44 AM PDT

2008/05/21 · 07:44

I finally got around to cracking open Barbara Tuchman's 1985 book The March to Folly: from Troy to Vietnam. It's a sort of case study of why governments so often engage in policies that are not only "wrong" but foolish, and against even the self-interests of their countries. In the very first chapter, I started seeing lines that had not just a little resonance today.

Why does intelligent mental process seem so often not to function [in government]?

If I get to the answer by the end of the book, I promise to share, because at that point, I'm at a loss, so I should be in for a good read, especially as I very much enjoyed Tuchman's The Guns of August. In any case, the next couple of pages defined that sort of governmental folly, and that's where it struck home:

Electing John McCain would be literally elevating the Iraq War to "folly."

Rorgg

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Thursday May 15, 2008 · 11:58 AM PDT

2008/05/15 · 11:58

On a forum with some friends, I give periodic rundowns on the state of the race to explain ... well, up until a week ago... why the media has been operating under a mass delusion that Clinton still had a reasonable chance to win.

Hit a new point today ... even with Michigan and Florida counting in full, Obama still wins the nomination by the end of the primary season.

Behold...

Rorgg

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Thursday April 24, 2008 · 11:16 AM PDT

2008/04/24 · 11:16

I heard some commentator say last night that although Obama has a "slim lead," the rules of the Democratic Nomination Process will prevent her from making a big pickup.

This is, of course, utter nonsense. The rules of the process are the same now and going forward as they were when Obama built his lead. There's only one rational takeaway: if these "big wins" Senator Clinton get can't overcome the lead -- or even make a dent in it, it's not that slim, is it?

It's just an optical illusion.

Rorgg

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Wednesday April 23, 2008 · 9:26 AM PDT

2008/04/23 · 09:26

First, I'd like to give you a bonus quiz, for those who didn't watch MSNBC last night. Pat Buchanan and Rachel Maddow were having a little back-and forth over what Obama/Hillary means in terms of Obama's chances versus McCain in November. Maddow said:

There is no connection between the inability to beat Hillary Clinton and whether or not you can beat John McCain... two totally different kinds of elections.

How did Buchanan respond? Answer at the end.

Let's take a look at where we sit today. It looks like Clinton netted about 10 delegates last night, 84-74 though this could move a couple as the results finalize. I'm using DemConWatch for all my numbers here.

This takes the pledged delegate count to 1490-1337. Committed superdelegates sit at 231-255. This leaves 307 superdelegates outstanding, of which 62 are add-ons.

Rorgg

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Tuesday April 22, 2008 · 11:50 AM PDT

2008/04/22 · 11:50

Yesterday, in a conversation about the Gallup tracking, I posted this (with my subsequent correction):

I've been playing along with the Gallup Numbers at home trying to guess the dailies behind the 3-day rolling. Here's my best guess

Apr: O-C

51-40

50-42

50-43

48-42 (debate in pm)

44-48

44-47

52-40

50-40

Now, this has a MoE of infinity, but the numbers do add up, and it makes sense: Things were pretty stable until the debate, then Obama took a 2-day hit, recovering by the weekend. If we see something like 50-40 tomorrow, it'll suggest this is right.

Rorgg

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Tuesday April 15, 2008 · 2:03 PM PDT

2008/04/15 · 14:03

Polls are here:

http://www.latimes.com/...

conducted April 10-14 (Thursday through Monday).

Indiana: Obama +5
North Carolina: Obama +13
Pennsylvania: Clinton +5

This is a reversal of the recent polling showing Clinton with a lead in Indiana, but the amount of that lead ranging anywhere from 3 to 16 points. The NC lead is small, but near the overlapping MoEs of the established polls, most of which have him up 18-20. The Pennsylvania list is long, so I've just included all the pollsters' most recent outputs below.

Rorgg

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Wednesday April 09, 2008 · 8:56 AM PDT

2008/04/09 · 08:56

Two new PA primary polls out this morning. The first is Strategic Vision, which 5 days ago released a poll showing Clinton up 8, now shows Clinton up 5, which is in line with yesterday's Quinnipiac and Rasmussen results.

Rorgg

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Monday April 07, 2008 · 10:00 AM PDT

2008/04/07 · 10:00

Come on. You know better than this.

The reason the surge has been successful is partly because of the increase of our troops, who are superb, but also because Muqtada al-Sadr declared a truce, and because, as you said yourself to John McCain, the Sunnis decided they were better off working with the Americans. That is not an equasion for long-term success in Iraq.

That was Senator Kerry on Fox News Sunday. You can see that here at the 4:50 mark.

The truth of 90% of what you said pales in comparison because you perpetuated the false GOP narrative that "the surge has been successful."

Stop that!

Poll

115 votes Show Results

The surge

115 votes Vote Now!

The surge

Is working

11 votes

Has mixed results

7 votes

Has failed in its goal but had ancillary benefits

32 votes

Achieved nothing

38 votes

is badly named if it never ends

15 votes

is a wave of pies

12 votes

Why the primary season is not an election

Rorgg

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Tuesday April 01, 2008 · 8:24 AM PDT

2008/04/01 · 08:24

Popular Vote. Big states. Electoral total. Undemocratic. Disenfranchise.

Meaningless.

The Clinton campaign, in a very clever and well-crafted piece of argument, is pushing a lot of those ideas to keep her campaign afloat in the face of great odds against her, with the expectation that the MSM will never call her on the essential fault of the whole series of arguments:

The primary season is not an election.

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Daily Tracking Consensus: Obama +7

The End of the Bump

What's Hillary's BATNA?

Electing McCain is literally folly

The Math: Florida? Michigan? Bring it on.

Fighting the "Slim Lead"

Hillary's Chances: Where We Stand

Gallup Daily: Obama +10. No surprise

Breaking: LA Times/Bloomberg Polls

Pennsylvania Polling 'pdate

John Kerry, what's wrong with you? [w/Poll]

Why the primary season is not an election