NY 2020 Redistricting Apocalypse 2. Electric Boogaloo.

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Friday April 29, 2022 · 1:08 PM PDT

2022/04/29 · 13:08

We have a court appointed master, Jonathan Cervas, to make a map for the NY Congressional delegation. The good news is Republicans howled loudly that the map he made in Pennsylvania was unfair to them. The bad news is it was still a map that still favored Republicans. Worse news is he is under the direction of a judge handpicked by Republicans who will approve the final draft of the map. Chances are it means the special master probably follows past trends in court redistricting. Keep past districts intact without interfering with incumbents. So view this as a “worst case scenario” we hope to never see.

Yet the judgement talks all about cracking and packing “minority party” voters and talks about other areas such as South Brooklyn and upstate New York. Republicans used the example of the longstanding Rochester district as being unfair in their law suit. Something I take into consideration. And I take it all to it’s extreme.

How this map will differ from my last one ( www.dailykos.com/... ) is I am aiming at maximizing the number of districts that are competitive. Not necessarily the number Republicans can hold long term. Just keeping the 8 seats Republicans currently hold would take work all by itself.

And this is the Achilles' heel in trying to gerrymander such a Democratic state to give Republicans the maximum number of chances to contest seats. A maximum Republican gerrymander is a shallow dummymander where a bad year may give Republicans results every bit as bad as a Democratic gerrymander.

So my pro-Republican map with 10 seats with a PVI favoring Republicans and 12 that Republicans can win? Only 5 are districts where Trump got over 51% of the vote. Only five seats have a Republican PVI above +3. And one of those seats is odd enough that I could see a conservadem winning it.

And this is an important point I want to make. While the whole affair may bite for the next election cycle and I know full well that is a vital one for a whole host of reasons; New York's Democratic Party inclinations are hard to hold back despite the many obstacles that are thrown our way. Even a “bad map” is something that can work itself out over an extended period of time.

TL;DR. Map is biased towards making a large number of seats that are potentially competitive and gives no consideration to the needs or desires of incumbents.

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Wednesday November 17, 2021 · 8:40 AM PST

2021/11/17 · 08:40

I was going to post a second version of a Democratic gerrymander of New York. But I’m going to do something else for two reasons. First I rather disliked what I did in Long Island. Especially compared to my first map. And second it is seeming fanciful now? Why?

Question 1 on the New York State ballot went down. Let me explain. Republicans used to control the State Senate thanks to skillful redistricting that permitted 10% population deviation between districts to give New York City less representation that it statistically deserved and an alliance with a group of turncoat Democrats organized by Andrew Cuomo called the IDC (Independent Democratic Caucus). Knowing that their control was tenuous a Republican State Senator, Greg Ball, proposed a “bi-partisan” redistricting commission that would give Republicans a permanent veto over any redistricting if they ever lost the State Senate. This would help them get it back even if they failed to be one of the "three men in a room."

To the dismay of the few of us who paid attention to what went on in Albany Andrew Cuomo adopted this proposal as his own. Here is what happened. Andrew Cuomo threatened to veto the Democratic State Assembly gerrymander of their chamber which they have a super-majority in if they not only did not pass the “first read” of the constitutional amendment, but put language in it that it would immediately become law if the legislature refused to put the constitutional amendment up for a state-wide vote in the NEXT session. Which would have been a better alternative but in that next session the Democrats rolled over as well. Perhaps not a surprise since the arrangement for years has been Democrats gerrymander the Assembly and Republicans gerrymander the State Senate. It just formalized tradition. Even if there would now be a huge penalty for the Democrats if they ever regained the State Senate.

But then the IDC got kicked out in 2018 and the actual language of the amendment mattered. It meant that this “bi-partisan” commission appointed by the majority and minority and evenly split Republican and Democrat got to make a redistricting plan. And both sides presented theirs since there would be no joint maps with the Republicans refusing to even pretend to compromise. The Republicans presented a gross Republican gerrymander. And Democrats presented a “fair” map that tried to make more districts competitive. Which in english means these “Democrats” screwed Democrats. Whether misguided idealism or Cuomo-esque attempts to look good rather than do good who knows. Each one would require a 2/3rds vote to pass.

The problem is that when this constitutional amendment was written primaries were later in the calendar. If their proposal or proposals were rejected the commission got to make a new set of map or maps. The second round of maps does not have to be submitted until February 28th. Whereas petitioning should right around there for the June primary. What this means is unless Republicans play ball (and they have made it crystal clear they prefer going to the courts over any compromise) a randomly selected federal judge will probably be making the New York map in a process starting sometime in January.

Chances are it will be a pretty status quo map with the contours of every district kept similar with a retiring congressman (Tom Reed) having their seat eliminated. But it is Russian roulette in that you really don’t know what you’ll get. So here is a “doomsday” map of a judge who wants to maintain VRA protected seats but other than that is content to ignore incumbency and just try not to split too many counties.

This actually does have many of the key features of the Republican map. Though not quite as aggressive. I’m not trying any ninjitsu like trying to split up Rochester and Buffalo which would be a feature of the worst gerrymanders possible. But should be considered a “fun” map in that it is doubtful it will happen. So cheer up. A Trump judge wouldn’t do this to us. Right guys?

Since I have been a Debbie Downer I’ll also add there is an unmentioned solution that might buy us time to do a proper gerrymander. Move the primary. But here is the problem. Part of the reason it is in June is because New York has a cumbersome, slow, and highly litigious election and counting process. Meaning it was difficult to get military absentee ballots with the actual candidates on the November ballot in the time frame required by federal law back when we had the primary in September. It was why federal primaries (followed by State primaries later on) HAD to be moved. But a July or even August primary would still be possible even if not ideal. That would require planning and a special session of the legislative session. None of which has occurred. And if it is not done next month look for a judge to start breathing down our necks.

The map.

davesredistricting.org/...

A twitter post to show you what things look like.

https://t.co/LhnHQLMRo0
— Tagento (@Tagento) November 17, 2021

Poll

18 votes Show Results

How much do you trust New York Democrats to save the day?

18 votes Vote Now!

How much do you trust New York Democrats to save the day?

Not at all.

8 votes

A little.

7 votes

A lot.

1 vote

I'm a Cuomo-sexual. Let the world burn.

0 votes

Is there pie anywhere?

2 votes

2022 NY Redistricting Map. First Draft.

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Saturday September 11, 2021 · 12:30 PM PDT

2021/09/11 · 12:30

I like making maps. Posting them I’m not so good at. Was kinda reluctant to post this yet since 2012/2016 numbers seem really dated compared to 2016/2020. Particularly upstate. But that type of thinking is why I never post anything. So just accept this map is flawed and just a first draft.

Main features. Tom Suozzi tossed overboard to make a better Republican vote sink on the North Shore with Zeldin’s seat becoming a lot more Democratic. NY-02 and NY-11 are made Democratic enough that their Republican office holders should be dislodged. I scrambled Western New York with Katko and Tenney being thrown together. But it isn’t inconceivable she could run against Reed or Reed could run against Jacobs. I could have been more aggressive and created an earmuff district as I have in past years but it is too much of a dummymander for my taste.

I’ll start with the map and link to Dave’s Redistricting App and start the rundown of each district.

davesredistricting.org/…

And post it on twitter so you can see the general shape of things if you don’t feel like clicking.

https://t.co/3jgBOlxaj1
— Tagento (@Tagento) September 11, 2021

Poll

15 votes Show Results

Would Claudia Tenney run against Katko or Reed?

15 votes Vote Now!

Would Claudia Tenney run against Katko or Reed?

John Katko

8 votes

Tom Reed

1 vote

Move to the North Pole and run against that socialist Santa Claus

6 votes

Trump's favorite doctor condemns treatment. Recommends Hydroxychloroquine.

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Sunday October 04, 2020 · 2:11 PM PDT

2020/10/04 · 14:11

Two months ago we got a good laugh out of Trump re-tweeting a quack doctor, Stella Immanuel, promoting hydroxychloroquine as a miracle cure for Covid-19. Just as he has for months. Something so whacked that the normally hands off twitter felt a need to do some cleanup on both his and his son’s account.

roguerocket.com/…

Of course this type of misinformation (including her and the President’s disinformation about masks and social distancing) is no laughing matter and has cost lives. But this is something Trump has been so insistent on that Trump has pushed for the FCC to allow government censorship of these platforms that have pushed back against his science free whims of fancy. Trump even went as far as denying a Republican renomination to the FCC just over a month ago because he was seen as hostile towards Trump’s efforts to gain more control over them.

The White House withdrawal of O’Reilly’s nomination comes after FCC Chairman Ajit Pai separately on Monday announced the agency would open public comment on an NTIA petition (PDF) for a rulemaking under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which governs legal liability about content on the internet.

That relates to an executive order issued in May by President Trump directing the Commerce Department to petition the FCC, asking for regulations on moderation practices for social media.

Democratic Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel has said on Twitter about the petition that “the FCC shouldn’t be the President’s speech police.”

www.fiercewireless.com/...

Trump of course decided rather than getting the treatment he has been urging other Covid-19 patients to demand from their doctors because they “have nothing to lose” to try a cocktail of some of the most aggressive conventional treatments normally reserved for the sickest of patients. Whether this is because Trump is sicker than the White House has let on or whether Trump is insisting on potentially dangerous aggressive treatments he shouldn’t be getting is anyone’s guess. We can only hope someone knows what they are doing.

Someone who of course believes Trump’s doctors do not know what they are doing is the aforementioned Dr. Stella Immanuel who evidently believes Trump was actually taking hydroxychloroquine as he claimed last May.

A doctor notorious for claiming hydroxychloroquine is a "cure" for COVID-19 has denounced White House doctors for not giving President Donald Trump the drug to treat his infection.

Dr. Stella Immanuel, who gained fame in July after Trump retweeted a video showing her touting the malaria drug, expressed outrage in a series of tweets on Friday, condemning the medical decisions of "bozo doctors" who surrounded the president after he tested positive for COVID-19.

"Instead of giving the president of the United States a known safe drug," Immanuel tweeted. "They gave him some experimental antibody stupidness. This is so dumb. Please potus family you guys wake up. Give him HCQ, Zpack & zinc asap."

www.newsweek.com/...

She prescribes for the President the age old remedy of punching his doctor in the face.

Whoever told the president to stop taking HCQ should be punched in the face. This did not have to happened. I am so upset. This is our president for crying out loud. No one need to get sick or pcr positive. #HCQ4prevention
— Stella Immanuel MD (@stella_immanuel) October 2, 2020

But she offers hope for the rest of the White House staff offering them her expert medical services.

Everyone in the White House get on HCQ twice a month. With daily vit C, D, and zinc. If your doctors will not prescribe it I will. I can see you via telehealth emergency licensed in DC. Use https://t.co/jTDgb5Et5p and I will hook you guys up. POTUS, FLOTUS don’t wait to get sick.
— Stella Immanuel MD (@stella_immanuel) October 2, 2020

This all seems silly. Except it is the President who brought her to the public’s attention as he promoted far right groups “resisting” masks and social distancing. In her case it was her involvement in a right-wing astroturf group of fringe medical doctors called America’s Frontline Doctors to counter the sober recommendations of the vast majority of the medical community at a press conference by “Tea Party Patriots.”

www.businessinsider.com/

America deserves better. And the President when his back is against the wall obviously has different expectations for himself than he does for the rest of us.

Poll

112 votes Show Results

Should President Trump be seeking medical treatment from Dr. Stella Immanuel?

112 votes Vote Now!

Should President Trump be seeking medical treatment from Dr. Stella Immanuel?

Yes

66 votes

6 votes

Should admit nobody should

40 votes

Andrew Cuomo seeks cuts to Medicaid in New York.

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Wednesday April 01, 2020 · 9:33 AM PDT

2020/04/01 · 09:33

I don’t do too many diaries because I often never finish what I write or wait too long to publish it. Or I’m too afraid of getting something wrong that I edit it to death and end up just making it worse.

But I’ll make an exception to this. And writing something of a fair bit of urgency.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has earned a good degree of well earned credit for his handling of the Covid pandemic that is gripping our state and nation. A marked contrast from the bizarre and often contradictory behavior of our president. I will add so has Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Governor Mike DeWine of Ohio.

There is one important difference between Cuomo and those Republicans. Only Andrew Cuomo is trying to cut Medicaid in the middle of the pandemic. And one good reason they aren’t is not just common sense but because of money Democrats in congress allocated in exchange for States not doing what Cuomo is seeking to do. They might actually lose money if their states tried to do so.

On Sunday, amid his regular coronavirus updates, inspirational slides, and Italian family dinner anecdotes, Governor Andrew Cuomo was asked to respond to New York Senator Chuck Schumer’s charge that the governor was rejecting billions in federal funding from emergency federal COVID-19 legislation simply because Cuomo wanted to tinker with the state’s Medicaid system. “It would be nice if he passed a piece of legislation that actually helped the state of New York,” Cuomo shot back.

Cuomo has been feuding with Schumer over the past couple of weeks, accusing the senator of trying to hamper his plans to make changes to Medicaid, the public health program that insures roughly a third of New Yorkers. Cuomo has made it clear that he is determined to cut Medicaid in the midst of a massive public health crisis—even if it means risking federal funds designated to provide relief.

New York stood to gain up to $6.7 billion through the federal legislation Schumer helped pass (that’s if the intervention program lasts a full year) but only under the condition that it didn’t put any new restrictions on Medicaid eligibility.

gothamist.com/…

The New York State Budget is being negotiated and voted on now. While everyone is distracted by the virus. So it’s important if you live in New York State that you call your State Senator and State Assemblyperson and let them know that you see them and you know.

Fanciful Downstate New York Redistricting Part 1.

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Tuesday December 20, 2016 · 4:23 PM PST

2016/12/20 · 16:23

Right now we are more than 2/3rds done with the 2010s and redistricting will soon be upon us. Of course until 2020 we won’t know the final numbers and which States will lose and gain. In terms of New York State two things are certain.

First that you won’t be able to support two black VRA districts in Brooklyn by itself with a black voting majority. Queens won’t be able to support one by itself. This is due to the areas these districts are in becoming more diverse through gentrification, the organic growth of the Jewish Orthodox communities within them, other groups such as Latinos and Asians moving in and some African-American residents moving to other areas. There are two things you can do. You can grow the Queens district into Nassau to preserve the majority and then move one of the Brooklyn districts deeply into Queens. Whether this is legally required depends on whether you see “communities of interest” cross county lines and how “creative” a solution you feel is justified. Or you could just accept them as plurality African-American districts that will continue electing African-American congressman but besides one district in Brooklyn no longer mandated to continue to. On my next map I will do the former. On this map I am doing the latter.

Turning two of these districts into plurality black allows you to do two things. First you could push some African-Americans into conservative districts (like Peter King) to help push them out. I chose not to do that in this map. Secondly you could use mixed African-American / Latino areas to help create a Queens based Latino district. This is what I did. This is highly unlikely as it makes life more stressful for a number of incumbents.

In order to help simulate the loss of the ability to create black majority districts I imagined a scenario where New York loses a congressional district. This is predicted by some but not all models of how the 2020 census will shake out. A lot will depend on choices made by the Trump administration on how they conduct it (such as how they go about trying to estimate and count undocumented aliens). If you have faith in Wilbur Ross (or whoever is Commerce Secretary four years from now) to conduct the next US census in a diligent, professional, and completely non-biased manner we may very well end up fine. However in the real world we should prepare for the worst.

Second it is fairly certain that upstate is going to continue to hemorrhage population. This is why I am only doing downstate since this will have implications for upstate districts. And going in with almost ten year 2008 numbers and without the Trump numbers I feel like I would be going into it completely blind.

An unintended and unavoidable consequence of eliminating a district is that downstate will lose a seat. With NYC and Long Island tucked in a corner without doing really weird things (like that map of strings going to NYC that made 29 safe New York State districts) this is geometrically unavoidable as districts grow in size and population. With a district eliminated this “lowers” every district remaining down meaning that depending on how you arrange your districts you could create a new Democratic friendly one north of New York City. Or just shore up Sean Patrick Maloney. But the cascade affect of this combined with the population increase upstate means great care has to be taken in enlarging districts like Louise Slaughter’s Rochester based one. We’ll know more in four years.

So let’s start.

Poll

5 votes Show Results

Who would win an all Manhattan primary?

5 votes Vote Now!

Who would win an all Manhattan primary?

Carolyn Maloney

1 vote

Jerry Nadler

4 votes

A brief overview of the 2016 election: The Primaries.

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Sunday December 04, 2016 · 1:14 PM PST

2016/12/04 · 13:14

Preliminary Note

This is something I started writing back in 2015 and had many incarnations as I kept waiting too long and the election completely changed before my eyes. This happens to be a lot. I have many half and mostly finished diaries littered across my computer that are now hopelessly outdated. In it’s current form this diary was meant to be published before November 7^th and was more or less finished a month before that. I just never got around to polishing it up. Thus I have deleted all my general election observations and predictions as obsolete. Even if my section on why Trump could “still” win ended up being (unfortunately) better than expected.

And any analysis of the general election must take into account what actually happened on election day to answer the big questions of what went wrong and where we go from here. Hopefully part two will be done by the time Trump leaves office.

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Monday August 22, 2016 · 7:37 AM PDT

2016/08/22 · 07:37

Tidbits regarding possible primary challenges to Mayor de Blasio. The big news or should I say source of mindless gossip was a dinner between the two most mentioned potential primary challengers to the Mayor, Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr and City Comptroller Scott Stringer. With neither even pretending to deny 2017 was under discussion between both them and potential donors.

Mr. Diaz said he met with a number of potential donors and others during the week. He confirmed the steakhouse meeting with Mr. Stringer and said they “absolutely” discussed 2017, though he declined to comment on the details of the conversation.

Mr. Stringer has signaled to allies that he is serious about a run for mayor next year and is considered by many consultants to be the most likely to enter the race. He has told people he believes Mr. de Blasio is damaged and wants to be ready, people familiar with the matter said.

www.wsj.com/...

This meeting and a joint editorial they published together ( www.nydailynews.com… ) has spurred some speculation that one may drop out to support the other. Especially given Stringer’s history of being gun shy in pursuing races for Mayor before.

Poll

46 votes Show Results

Who would be the stronger Democratic primary challenger to Bill de Blasio?

46 votes Vote Now!

Who would be the stronger Democratic primary challenger to Bill de Blasio?

City Comptroller Scott Stringer,

12 votes

Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr

5 votes

Congressman Hakeem Jeffries

12 votes

Real Estate Developer Don Peebles

1 vote

City Public Advocate Letitia James

7 votes

OMB Director Shaun Donovan

1 vote

Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams

2 votes

Noted Cybersex Enthusiast Carlos Danger

6 votes

Debi Rose, the Working Families Party and a little Andrew Cuomo.

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Tuesday November 18, 2014 · 12:22 PM PST

2014/11/18 · 12:22

Meant to write this as a comment on the dkos elections live thread. But what I wrote became so sprawling (even by my own sprawling scatterbrained standards) that I thought it best to just convert it into a "proper" diary.

First I'll start with how Andrew Cuomo tangentially relates to this. Just about everyone is familiar with the Working Families on-again and mostly off-again relationship with the Andrew Cuomo. With many expressing profound regret that they cut a deal with Andrew Cuomo rather than endorsing Zephyr Teachout. But in 2014 it was Andrew Cuomo wooing the Working Families Party trying to get their endorsement. In 2010 the situation was reversed and set the tone for their relationship moving forward. Back then Andrew Cuomo was openly talking about declining any endorsement from the progressive labor party. You may even remember this little gem. The absurd speculation that the Working Families Party was going to run Alec Baldwin for Governor. http://www.nydailynews.com/... And all due to the former slayer of the Liberal Party giving statements like this.

Cuomo, all but guaranteed to get the Democratic line at the state party's convention this week, has yet to decide whether he will accept the Working Families line. Yesterday, Cuomo said it's too "premature" to say if he would accept the support of the Working Families Party. "We'll address that situation down the road," he said.

Now some of that was disagreement over the Working Families Party backing Eric Schneiderman for Attorney General over current Congresswoman (and then Nassau District Attorney) Kathleen Rice. And Andrew Cuomo ultimately merely made them publicly humiliate themselves before accepting the nomination as seen in this excellent diary. http://www.dailykos.com/...

But as you might have noticed from the first link above his initial refusal to accept their endorsement goes back to a little remembered scandal involving the Working Families Party and the campaign they ran in New York City's Democratic Primary for city offices in support of their endorsed slate of candidates. A monumental success that defeated a number of incumbents and helped John Liu and Bill de Blasio claw their way in crowded fields to become City Comptroller and Public Advocate.

The "scandal" involved The Working Families Party and a for profit election consulting firm they ran called Data and Field Services. I'll explain the scandal and how it has become a news story again here in Staten Island below the fold.

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Thursday October 24, 2013 · 6:06 PM PDT

2013/10/24 · 18:06

I'll make this a diary rather than put this in the DKE comments section since this comment is getting too damn long. I'll have to give a fair degree of background to explain why this particular rally matters in this district.

I've heard a number of Democrats blame Mark Murphy's loss (and Michael Grimm's win) in 2010 on one thing. The trade unions backing Grimm. Though of course there was more to it than that it was something that certainly hurt Team Democrats. Two rather ordinary reasons why they backed him and why trade unions have often endorsed the more conservative candidate in many races. First that trade union members are often more conservative than other union members and second their main aim is jobs for their membership. Environmental objections, living wage objections, or most of other objections are not of concern to them. They want any and all proposed project built ASAP so their members can get jobs. Sometimes this puts them at odds with other unions whose concern is whether and of what types unionized jobs are available after a project is completed. But there is something else in the case of Michael Grimm. In the last congress he proposed the "Grimm Amendment" that stripped away Republican language that would forbid "Project Labor Agreements." This of course made a number of conservatives who are too thick to realize the trades often do back Republicans angry.

http://www.redstate.com/...

Thus one of the trade union representatives who came to speak at a Democratic club about the matter I am going to get to who is otherwise a liberal Democrat justified his trades support for Michael Grimm by saying he was their ambassador to the tea party who could explain why choosing union labor is cost effective. (Of course there are other parts of Grimm's record that are far more odious but that is for a different time and place)

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Saturday March 03, 2012 · 3:24 PM PST

2012/03/03 · 15:24

I guess i'll post this as a diary since people were yelling at me for overly long thread comments. Hopefully you won't find this too irrelevant or parochial for diary material.

John Liu technically has not said whether he is staying in the mayoral contest or not. As Azi Paybarah correctly noted you can really take his statements either way.

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

Of course the fact he is so non-committal in and of itself speaks to his dire circumstances.

His opponents (well serious opponents if we're going to exclude Tom Allon) are not criticizing him in the least. He even got a statement of support from Bill Thompson.

http://www.politicker.com/...

What this tells you is they no longer see him as a threat and are looking towards courting him and his supporters.

Poll

59 votes Show Results

Would will benefit most from John Liu's implosion?

59 votes Vote Now!

Would will benefit most from John Liu's implosion?

Bill de Blasio

9 votes

Scott Stringer

7 votes

Bill Thompson

9 votes

Christine Quinn

26 votes

Santa Clause

8 votes

A mischievous New York Court Drawn Map

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Tuesday February 28, 2012 · 10:39 AM PST

2012/02/28 · 10:39

At the outset I'll say I don't expect this map to ever happen. First because the legislature has a history of waiting until the very last minute. In the past past they have waited until after a special master has been appointed by the courts to finally pass something. And this year will be no exception.

And this map is just illustrative of the type of things that the legislature fears the courts could do. Downstate I intentionally screwed with Democrats. And upstate I caused a bit of havoc for the Republicans. At least east of Rochester. Chances are the special master would be very careful to protect incumbents and keep lines as intact as possible. Something I went out of my way not to do in many instances.

Of course with two seats gone and every district having it's population sometimes dramatically expanded that can be easier said than done. But I'd expect something along the lines of what I drew in my last diary with western New York looking something like this one.

But the possibility of even one or two of these changes happening is what will in the end produce a deal.

By request I made a lot more larger bigger view maps (something I meant to do for the other diary and never got around to). Set the old crt to max resolution and squinted and did print screens from there. One of these days I'll enter the 21st century and get a much larger lcd monitor.

Poll

25 votes Show Results

Will the New York State legislature pass a congressional redistricting plan in time?

25 votes Vote Now!

Will the New York State legislature pass a congressional redistricting plan in time?

Yes.

8 votes

Yes. But for the wrong state.

10 votes

No.

7 votes

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A mischievous New York Court Drawn Map