A much overlooked predictor of Presidential elections is Consumer Confidence in the summer of the election year. This shows how people actually feel about the economy. Sometimes what people feel and what is actually happening is much different.
For instance, in 1992, the economy was growing at a solid 4.2% clip, but because Consumer Confidence was so low, Bush ended up losing reelection.
The lowest level of Consumer Confidence a President has gotten reelected during was 99. Right now, Consumer Confidence is around 60.
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