Well, get few for end this serie of diaries about senate races. Today we go to Nevada. Harry Reid will run for reelection and seems the long time democratic incumbent with more problems for reelection.
Seems not very popular senator but i think he can win. Republicans in Nevada have problems too with unpopular governor J Gibbons, and with indicted Lieutenant Governor B Krolicki. That make more easy the bid of Harry Reid for reelection. Now they don't have any statewide officer more, and only one US House Representative (D Heller). Cause that, sound for this race veteran former governor K Guinn (R-1936), and former representative J Porter, recently defeated for reelection by D Titus (47%-42%) but with decent poll against H Reid. I think former governor can be the strongest challenger if run. Nothing is sure.
I don't expect strong challengers for a democratic primary. If H Reid is the democratic candidate, for me without problem, like in all races. Surely the bests possible democratic challengers will look to gobernatorial race. It Can be interesting remember the results of the diary for gubernatorial race:
NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 21 votes = 06,746 => Leans Democratic
Like i make for all states i will add the list of possible candidates:
- Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
- Robert Joseph Miller: IL NV 1945 Governor of Nevada 89-99. Lieutenant Governor of NV 87-89.
- Rochelle "Shelley" Berkley: NY NV 1951 USHRep 99- .
- Alice Constandina Titus: GA NV 1950 USHRep 09- . Lost for Governor 06.
- Ross Miller: NV 1976? NV Secretary of State 07- .
- Catherine Cortez Masto: NV 196? NV Attorney General 07- .
- Kate Marshall: NV 1959 NV State Treasurer 07- .
- Kimberly Wallin: NV 19?? NV State Controller 07- .
R Miller former governor seems a good candidate for challenge incumbent republican senator J Ensign.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---
HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 with 76%.
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 with 71%.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 with 71%.
ND-Sen: Incumbent B Dorgan (D-1942) win in 2004 with 68%.
CT-Sen: Incumbent C Dodd (D- 1944) win in 2004 with 66%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 with 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 with 63%.
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 with 62%.
CA-Sen: Incumbent B Boxer (D-1940) win in 2004 with 58%.
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 with 56%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 with 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 with 55%.
IL-Sen: Incumbent R Burris (D-1937). B Obama (D-1961) win in 2004 with 70%.
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? after 62 votes = 07,957 => Likely Democr
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 33 votes = 07,828 => Likely Democratic
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 60 votes = 07,333 => Likely Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 11 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democr
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 41 votes = 07,236 => Likely Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan ? after 10 votes = 06,833 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? after 30 votes = 06,333 => Leans Democr
2 OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 22 votes = 06,288 => Leans Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 20 votes = 05,917 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 05,571 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 38 votes = 05,307 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 32 votes = 05,052 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 39 votes = 05,000 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.