The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● OH-12: Monmouth takes a look at next week's high-profile special election for Ohio's 12th Congressional District, and they find the contest just about as close as it can be with Republican Troy Balderson leading Democrat Danny O'Connor 44-43, and Green Party nominee Joe Manchik at 2.
Not only is that much closer than the 43-33 lead Balderson posted in Monmouth's June poll, it's also better for O'Connor than the polls that Democrats have been releasing. Last week. The O'Connor campaign dropped a poll from GBA Strategies that had him down 48-45 (though without rounding, the memo says that O'Connor is only back 2 points), while his allies at End Citizens United released a PPP survey on Tuesday giving him a 48-44 deficit. Democrats, however, have argued that the race has been tightening in the run-up to Election Day, so Monmouth's numbers fit in with that argument. They also dovetail with the now-classic GOP panic we see before every special election.
This Monmouth poll also gives Trump an underwater 46-49 approval rating in a seat he carried 53-42, and Team Blue is hoping he'll drag the GOP down in what's been a reliably red area for a long time. However, Team Red is optimistic that Trump will inspire otherwise apathetic conservatives to show up, so both sides may get what they're hoping for now that Trump has announced he'll campaign for Balderson on Saturday.
Both parties are also continuing to throw money into this race in its final days. The RNC has invested $250,000 in ads as well as get-out-the-vote efforts and mail, while the DCCC is spending another $284,000 on ads.
Primary Day
● Primary Day: Boyds II Men: Thursday brings us Tennessee's statewide primary. (Why does Tennessee always hold their primary on Thursday? No one's really sure why.) We've put together our preview here, and we'll begin our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections after polls close at 8 PM ET/ 7 PM CT. You can also follow our coverage on Twitter as well.
The big race to watch will be the unpredictable four-way GOP contest for governor between Rep. Diane Black, businessmen Randy Boyd and Bill Lee, and state House Speaker Beth Harwell. We also have several House contests in store. Tennessee has no primary runoff, so Thursday's contest is winner-takes-all.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: On behalf of ABC15, the local GOP firm OH Predictive Insights is out with a poll giving Democrat Kyrsten Sinema a 48-44 edge against fellow Rep. Martha McSally, the GOP primary frontrunner. That's not much of a change from their April poll when Sinema led McSally 48-42. They also take a look at the Aug. 28 GOP primary and give McSally a 35-27 lead over former state Sen. Kelli Ward, while disgraced former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio took 15. In June, McSally had a larger 39-25 lead over Ward.
● MO-Sen: Senate Majority PAC is up with what Politico reports is a $1.7 million ad buy hitting Republican Josh Hawley for taking "huge contributions from the insurance industry" and using tax payer money to sue to "strip[] away protections for 2.5 million Missourians with pre-existing conditions."
● MT-Sen: End Citizens United is out with the first ad in their month-long $1.5 million TV buy. They argue that Republican Matt Rosendale ruled that a 23 percent health insurance rate increase was reasonable, and hit him for taking money from insurance companies.
● ND-Sen: Senate Majority PAC is up what Politico reports is a $300,000 buy against Republican Kevin Cramer. Their new spot argues that Cramer voted to repeal country of origin labeling, hurting North Dakota farmers and ranchers.
● TN-Sen: Republican Marsha Blackburn is up with her opening TV ad three months after Democrat Phil Bredesen first went on the air. Blackburn refrains from throwing out the conservative red meat, instead saying she's "in this fight so that we can win, and the we is the people, the Constitution, the country."
● TX-Sen, TX-Gov: Quinnipiac returns to Texas and gives GOP Sen. Ted Cruz a modest 49-43 lead over Democrat Beto O'Rourke, while Gov. Gregg Abbott posts a 51-38 edge against Lupe Valdez. The school's April poll gave Cruz just a 47-44 lead while their May poll found him up 50-39, and this new survey is almost exactly in the middle of those two ranges. Abbott also went from a 49-40 advantage in April to a larger 53-34 lead in May, so this latest poll takes him almost back to where he started.
The Texas Lyceum also is out with a poll that gave Cruz just a small 41-39 edge, while Abbott was up 47-31. However, in addition to having a large number of undecided voters, that poll was in the field for a long 16-day period. The most common length for polls is three days, and almost all polling periods are shorter than Lyceum's.
● WI-Sen: The Club for Growth is continuing its $2.4 million ad buy ahead of the Aug. 14 GOP primary with another spot against state Sen. Leah Vukmir. The narrator accuses her of being a big government hypocrite who "even supports hiding the names of politicians hit with sexual harassment claims."
● Senate: The Democratic super PAC Senate Majority PAC has reserved an additional $17 million in TV time across six states: Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and West Virginia. They did not provide a breakdown of how much money is going to each race.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim is out with his first TV ad ahead of the Aug. 14 Democratic primary. Ganim, who is shown at a boxing gym jumping rope, punching a bag, and sparring, briefly addresses his time in prison for corruption by declaring off the bat, "I've been down and out, but I'm a fighter and I don't give up." Ganim says he used his second chance as mayor to create jobs and pledges to build a state economy that "works for everyone, not just a wealthy few."
● FL-Gov: St. Pete Polls takes another look at the Aug. 28 Democratic primary for Florida Politics, and they give former Rep. Gwen Graham a 29-23 lead over billionaire developer Jeff Greene. Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine takes 19, while Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is at 12, with businessman Chris King at 3. St. Pete's poll from two weeks ago had Graham and Greene deadlocked 22-22, while Levine was at 19.
While Gillum has been in fourth place in most polls, he picked up Sen. Bernie Sanders' endorsement on Wednesday. Gillum is also receiving air support from The Collective Super PAC, a group that aids black candidates. The Collective has launched what they say is a $500,000 ad buy against Graham. The spot isn't online yet, though the group says it hits her for "voting with banks, supporting the disastrous Keystone XL pipeline, and publicly undermining President Obama's Affordable Care Act to get re-elected."
Meanwhile, Greene picked up some bad headlines this week after an interview from just after the 2016 election surfaced that featured Greene saying that, while he backed Hillary Clinton, "I'm delighted Donald Trump is the alternative," and adding, "He's a great guy. I know Donald Trump." That's a very different message from Greene's opening ad, which featured footage from December of 2016 where Trump was seen furiously gesturing at Greene, with the camera then panning to an angry Greene. The New York Times also identified Greene as a Mar-a-Lago member as recently as January of 2017.
● IL-Gov: Illinois Public Opinion, Inc., a group run by veteran Democratic strategist and former state party press secretary David Ormsby, is out with a mid-July poll giving Democrat J.B. Prizker a 39-26 lead over GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner. State Sen. Sam McCann, a former Republican running under his new "Conservative Party" label, takes 10.
● LA-Gov: Back in December, GOP Attorney General Jeff Landry appeared ready to defer his own gubernatorial ambitions and support Rep. Ralph Abraham if he challenged Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards in 2019. However, Landry sang a very different tune on Wednesday, telling USA Today that, while he had planned to run for re-election, it was getting "harder and harder" to say no to a bid for the top job. Landry added that, while Abraham may end up running and being the candidate who could unite the party, "there hasn't been a lot of circling the wagons around him" since he first expressed interest.
Abraham, who is seeking re-election to his safely red seat this fall, said last year that he would decide on a bid in the first half of 2018. That deadline passed a month ago without any word from the congressman, and Landry sounds inpatient. He told USA Today that, while he didn't retract his comment in support of Abraham, "we're getting into a kind of critical decision making time. If we're going to have a candidate we need to find one and soon." Abraham's team reiterated in response that the congressman is still considering and would "make that decision as the appropriate time."
Sen. John Kennedy has also shown plenty of interest in running, though he hasn't said when he expects to decide. Landry didn't rule out deferring to him, saying he wanted to talk to Kennedy about his plans and "if that's what he wants to do let's get on with it." He added that he just wants to have the GOP united around one gubernatorial candidate, adding that "[i]t doesn't have to be me, but it may be me."
Finally, it seems to be a state law that every election cycle, wealthy businessman and former state Democratic Party chair Jim Bernhard needs to consider running for office. LAPolitics' Jeremy Alford writes that there have been rumors that Bernhard is eyeing a bid against Edwards and meeting with conservative politicos, though he hasn't said anything publicly. Alford adds that while most of the chatter seems to be idle speculation, Edwards allies have quietly reached out to Bernhard to "advise against the move or to simply question his motives."
It's not at all clear what beef Bernhard has with his fellow Democrat, or if he's just restless. However, Alford writes that some unnamed Republicans hope he'd run as one of them to try and stop Kennedy. Friends of the businessman say that this kind of party switch "would be a monumental undertaking."
● MI-Gov: Former Detroit Health Commissioner Abdul El-Sayed is out with a poll from Change Research of next week's Democratic primary that gives former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer a 33-27 lead over him, with wealthy businessman Shri Thanedar at 14. We've only seen two other polls of this contest in the last month, and while they've agreed Whitmer is ahead, there's been little consensus on anything else. Marist found Whitmer edging Thanedar just 31-27, with El-Sayed at 22. However, EPIC-MRA found Whitmer decisively leading Thanedar 49-22, while El-Sayed took 19.
● MN-Gov: With just two weeks left before the GOP primary, 2014 nominee Jeff Johnson is out with his first TV spot. Johnson argues that the race is a choice between former Gov. Tim Pawlenty and his legacy of higher spending and fees, as well as "green energy mandates, light rail, [and] Common Core." Johnson then argues he'll bring about limited government. Meanwhile, Pawlenty is out with another spot where he pledges to "make sure that people who get government benefits actually qualify for them, and that they're here legally."
● RI-Gov: Campaign finance reports are out for all the candidates covering the second quarter of 2018. On the Democratic side, Gov. Gina Raimondo hauled in $1.2 million and ended June with a hefty $3.9 million war chest. Former Secretary of State Matt Brown, her main challenger in the Sept. 12 primary, raised $77,000 from donors and loaned himself another $60,000, but he had only $41,000 left. Former state Rep. Spencer Dickinson ended June with a small $10,000 war chest.
On the GOP side, Cranston Mayor and 2014 nominee Allan Fung raised $242,000 and ended with $438,000 in the bank. State House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan raised just $18,000 and loaned herself another $40,000, and she had $138,000 left to spend. Still, that's better than businessman Giovanni Feroce, who raised only $14,000 plus a $6,000 loan and ended with all of $82 in the bank. Finally, conservative independent Joe Trillo, who has been mostly self-funding his race, had $86,000 on-hand.
House
● CT-05: The state SEIU, which the Hartford Courant says is the state's largest union, has thrown its support behind teacher Jahana Hayes in the Aug. 14 Democratic primary.
● FL-17: CLA Inc. (The CLA! The CLA is our master! The CLA chooses who will go and who will stay!) is once again taking the opposite side of the Club for Growth in a GOP primary. The super PAC, which stands for the Conservative Leadership Alliance, has launched a $200,000 ad buy against state Sen. Greg Steube ahead of his Aug. 28 contest with state Rep. Julio Gonzalez for this safely red seat. Last month, the Club announced that they'd reserved $400,000 in air time to aid Steube.
● KS-02: Rep. Roger Marshall, who represents a neighboring seat, has endorsed Army veteran Steve Watkins a week ahead of the crowded GOP primary.
● MI-11: EPIC-MRA takes a look at next week's primaries for this competitive open seat (as usual, they did not poll cell phones.) On the Democratic side, once learners have been pushed to make a decision, state Rep. Tim Greimel posts a 25-21 lead over Haley Stevens, the former chief of staff to Barack Obama's Auto Task Force. Businessman Suneel Gupta and former Detroit Director of Immigration Affairs Fayrouz Saad are at 19 and 13 percent, respectively. The only other poll we've seen here in months was a July poll from Target-Insyght that found Stevens leading Gupta 21-15, with Greimel at 14 and Saad at 7.
On the GOP side (with leaners pushed), EPIC-MRA gives wealthy businesswoman Lena Epstein a 29-22 lead over former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski. State Rep. Klint Kesto and state Sen. Mike Kowall are at 15 and 10, respectively. Former Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, who accidentally represented this seat in 2013 and 2014, takes just 9.
Epstein has decisively been outspending all her primary rivals, so it makes sense that she leads here. From July 1 to July 18, the time the FEC defines as the pre-primary period, Epstein deployed $389,000, while Kesto was a distant second with $67,000 spent.
● MI-13: For the first time since 1962, there will not be a John Conyers on the ballot in the Detroit area. John Conyers III, the son and chosen successor of former Rep. John Conyers, tried to run as an independent after he failed to turn in enough signatures to make the Aug. 7 Democratic primary ballot. However, Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett said that state law prohibits an individual from filing as an independent in the same calendar year that they filed to run in a primary for the same office.
● MN-01: The NRA has endorsed state Sen. Carla Nelson ahead of her Aug. 14 GOP primary against businessman Jim Hagedorn.
● PA-15 (old), PA-07 (old): On Tuesday, Republicans finally picked a nominee for the special election for Pennsylvania's old 15th Congressional District, and the choice was obvious: Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein, who's also running in the regular election for the new 7th District. Democrats, by contrast, named their choice, Susan Wild, all the way back in May, right after the state's primaries.
Wild is also running in both races, which will take place simultaneously in November, so the special is only for the last two months of former Rep. Charlie Dent's term. However, the GOP's dithering hurt them in one important way: Because Wild is running in two elections at once, she's been able to raise double the normal federal limit of $2,700 from donors. And indeed, Wild smashed Nothstein in fundraising in the second quarter, taking in $863,000 to his $234,000. And though both faced hotly competitive primaries, Wild also finished with $700,000 in her campaign account, compared to just $178,000 for Nothstein.
Meanwhile, in the special election for the old 7th District, which is the predecessor to the new 5th and is likewise vacant thanks to disgraced former GOP Rep. Pat Meehan's resignation, Republicans still don't appear to have chosen a candidate, even though they nominated attorney Pearl Kim for the regular election in the spring. Meanwhile, as they did in the old 15th, Democrats long ago tapped their primary winner for the new 5th, Mary Gay Scanlon, for both races. Kim, however, faces a largely hopeless task, as the new 5th is solidly blue (we rate the race Safe Democratic, which would constitute an automatic pickup). Nothstein, however, is in a Tossup race, so this unforced error is inexplicable.
● TX-32: You'd think that by now, Republicans would have learned to just stop talking about women altogether, because nothing good ever comes out of their mouths when they do. Yet here we are, with a message from GOP Rep. Pete Sessions that just astounds:
"Dallas County, a few years ago, went through a number of terrible shootings. And I gathered together, they were at the time Republican district judges, and I said, 'Guys, men, women, we've now had I think four or five shootings.' One of them was from a big-time guy in Highland Park who went and killed his wife, just gunned her down. And that was because the judge was unfair, and the woman was unfair. And she demanded something, and he was out. And it was frustration. So now we go through the court system. And unfortunately lives have to be lost and there has to be tragedy—there now is a better system."
This sound like the worst sort of mashup of Trump ramblings offered up as an excuse for murder. Talking Points Memo's Cameron Joseph, who first reported the remarks, says that it's not clear what incident Sessions is even talking about, though, and his campaign has declined to elaborate. What's more, the conservative activist who recorded Sessions making these statements in June says that his staff asked him to take down the video—not that it matters now.
Joseph adds that Sessions is known in D.C. for his "difficult-to-decipher comments" and "frequent use of tangents." What he sounds like is a politician who's badly out of practice talking to voters, which is the sort of thing that happens when you haven't faced a competitive race since 2004.
This year is different, though, because Sessions' traditionally Republican district turned sharply against Trump, and as a consequence, he's drawn a stiff challenge from former NFL linebacker turned civil rights attorney Colin Allred. If Sessions keeps running his mouth, he's going to regret it—if he hasn't already.
● WA-05: GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers and the state GOP recently sent out inflammatory mailers claiming that Democrat Lisa Brown "chose to protect dangerous sex offenders instead of our children" in the legislature. The Spokesman-Review quickly produced a fact-check that said the mailers relied on "selective interpretations of bills" that ended up failing or changing, and Brown herself is also taking to the airwaves with a response.
Brown's narrator declares that "hundreds of doctors and community members" told McMorris Rodgers to stop sending out "disturbing false ads with images of children and sex offenders." He then says that the mailers call Brown "dangerous," but continues, "to a 14-year DC insider desperate to hold onto her job and the special interests who have her in their pocket, maybe Lisa Brown is a little dangerous."
● House: The DCCC has added four more candidates to their Red to Blue list: Lucy McBath (GA-06); Kara Eastman (NE-02); Dana Balter (NY-24); and MJ Hegar (TX-31). Both Eastman and Balter won their primaries by beating candidates who were on Red to Blue: Eastman defeated former Rep. Brad Ashford in mid-May, while Balter beat Juanita Perez Williams at the end of June.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Former Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego is well on his way towards a comeback. Johnny Longtorso brings us Tuesday's results:
Texas SD-19: This will go on to an as-yet-unscheduled runoff between two Petes: Republican Pete Flores led the pack with 34 percent of the vote, while Democrat Pete Gallego came in second with 29 percent. Democrat Roland Gutierrez was third with 24 percent, and the other five candidates split the remaining 12 percent.
The four Democrats in the race took a combined 59 percent of the vote compared to 40 percent for the three Republicans in a seat that went 54-42 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 55-44 for Barack Obama in 2012, which bodes well for Gallego's chances in the runoff.
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