The race in North Dakota get like one of more danger make feel the people, between the races with long time democratic incumbent like we can see in this link.
Only was out H Reid in this poll and North Dakota race get in second place. Well, cause of that, i write this diary about this race.
Seems republicans are trying recruit incumbent popular governor for this race. J Hoeven must not run for reelection in 2010 and that let a race without high risk for him. He is the longest time serving governor in all state, and remain popular, but the polls for senate are goods for incumbent democratic senator B Dorgan, who serve at statewide or federal level in North Dakota since 1969, since he has 26 years old, the youngest constitutional officer in North Dakota history. B Dorgan lead last poll 57%-35% over J Hoeven.
North Dakota is considered a red state, but all congressional delegation for congress and senate is democratic. This is a weak point for republicans. While, democrats have only a statewide office in North Dakota for seven the republicans (including governor and Lieutenant governor).
Some of these statewide officers, including the governor can run for senate without lose their office, because they must not run for reelection in 2010. Republicans can challenge democratic senators (B Dorgan in 2010) with low risk for their offices, but the problem for they are the polls. No-one like lose. That can make J Hoeven finally not run. We can tell democratic incumbents are strongs in this state.
Of course, i don't expect democratic challengers for B Dorgan, but for we can have a good overview about democrats in North Dakota i will include for this state the list of possible candidates make with same criteries:
- Byron Leslie Dorgan: ND 1942 Senator from North Dakota 92- . USHRep 81-92. ND Tax Commissioner 69-80. Lost for House 74.
- Earl Pomeroy: ND 1952 USHRep 93- . ND Insurance Commissioner 85-92.
- Roger Johnson: ND 19?? ND Agriculture Commissioner 97- .
The list is short. In last years seems more difficult for democrats win elections for statewide offices.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:
HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 76%. Biggest danger (low): L Lingle (R-1953).
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%. Without danger.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 71%. Biggest danger (low): J Douglas (R-1951).
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%. Without danger.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%. Without danger.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 56%. Biggest danger (low): M Huckabee (R-1955).
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 62%. Biggest danger (low): M Daniels (R-1949).
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? after 25 votes = 08,600 Safe Dem
IL-Sen: open R vs open D ? after 24 votes = 08,264 => Likely Democratic
CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 32 votes = 08,073 => Likely Democratic
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? after 66 votes = 07,854 => Likely Democr
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 34 votes = 07,843 => Likely Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 13 votes = 07,436 => Likely Democr
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
ND-Sen: J Hoeven (R-1957) vs B Dorgan (D-1942) ? after 14 votes = 07,262 => Likely Democr
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 45 votes = 07,222 => Likely Democratic
2 CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 33 votes = 06,869 => Leans Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 11 votes = 06,818 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? after 31 votes = 06,344 => Leans Democr
2 OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 20 votes = 05,917 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 36 votes = 05,602 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,101 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 40 votes = 04,875 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 56 votes = 03,661 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 17 votes = 01,176 => Safe Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.