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Todays diary will be about Vermont. In this state republicans have J Douglas like incumbent governor, and he his one of more important political figures what they have in blue states.

The incumbent senator P Leahy (D-1940) seems very popular and strong in his home state. Seems he will not have problems in no-one case. Seems he can defeat so easily all possible republican candidates. We can see about that in this diary.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Safe democratic incumbents?

Until now the polls let P Leahy leading very clearly over J Douglas (58%-36%), who likely will decide run for reelection. I think J Douglas strongness is not real. I tell that because we can see like democrats if have the rigth candidate can defeat J Douglas in the gubernatorial race. We can see that in this diaries:

VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up

What chance of win can have J Douglas against P Leahy, B Sanders or H Dean? I think very low. We see against H Dean in the diary about this option. They are three high level "democrats" for three first level offices in Vermont.

Republican party seems very poor in Vermont, and they have governor and lieutenant governor's offices (J Douglas and B Dubie). This like tell republicans are taking advantage. I think democratic party must try defeat this republican incumbent. For me would be very good new see a really serious bid in Vermont with H Dean or B Sanders (and H Dean for his senate seat). I like encourage they for bid defeat J Douglas. Why let chance of win to a republican in Vermont?

Coming back, to this senate race, i think if democratic party make this serious bid for win the governors office, can be more easy J Douglas run for senate. And Leahy will defeat him by second time (first was in 1992). If J Douglas not run, republicans will not have a decent candidate.

In democratic side is very unlikely see any challenger in primaries against P Leahy, but like i make for all states, i will include the list of possible candidates:

  1. Patrick Joseph Leahy: VT 1940 Senator from Vermont 75- .
  1. Howard Brush Dean III: NY VT 1948 Governor of Vermont 91-03. Lieutenant Governor of VT 87-91. Lost for President in 04.
  1. Peter F Welch: MA VT 1947 USHRep 07- . Lost for Governor 90. Lost for House 88.
  1. Douglas A Racine: VT 1952 Lieutenant Governor of Vermont 97-03. Lost for Governor 02.
  1. Deborah Markowitz: NY VT 1961 VT Secretary of State 99- .
  1. Thomas M Salmon: VT 1963 VT Auditor of Accounts 07- .
  1. William H Sorrell: VT 1947 VT Attorney General 97- .
  1. George B Spaulding: MA VT 1952 VT State Treasurer 03- .

Without P Leahy, is the same list what for gubernatorial race. Any of they are running for governor. We can see in the list like they are more young possible candidates for the future, but maybe in this moment, they can not defeat J Douglas.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Safe democratic incumbents?

NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%.

HI-Sen: L Lingle (R-1953) vs D Inouye (D-1924) ? after 18 votes = 09,444 => Safe Democratic
VT-Sen: J Douglas (R-1951) vs P Leahy (D-1940) ? after 24 votes = 09,097 => Safe Democratic
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? af 28 votes = 08,750 Safe Democr
AR-Sen: open R vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? after 16 votes = 08,646 => Safe Democratic
IN-Sen: M Daniels (R-1949) vs E Bayh (D-1955) ? after 20 votes = 08,500 => Likely Democratic
IL-Sen: open R vs open D ? after 26 votes = 08,269 => Likely Democratic
CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 38 votes = 07,851 => Likely Democratic
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 34 votes = 07,843 => Likely Democratic
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? af 67 votes = 07,811 => Likely Democrat
ND-Sen: J Hoeven (R-1957) vs B Dorgan (D-1942) ? af 17 votes = 07,745 => Likely Democratic
N NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs J Lynch (D-1952) ? af 20 votes = 07,583 => Likely Democratic
N? OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 14 votes = 07,381 => Likely Dem
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 47 votes = 07,234 => Likely Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 12 votes = 06,944 => Leans Democratic
N? CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 34 votes = 06,765 => Leans Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? af 32 votes = 06,146 => Leans Democratic
N? AR-Sen: M Huckabee (R-1955) vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? af 24 votes = 05,972 => Leans Democ
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 21 votes = 05,952 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 37 votes = 05,631 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 34 votes = 05,098 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 44 votes = 04,924 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 58 votes = 03,678 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
2 FL-Sen: C Crist (R-1956) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,283 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 20 votes = 01,250 => Safe Republican

*: The diary about Florida with an * is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate

And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?

AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.

All the polls are open.

PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.

Originally posted to abgin on Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 12:55 AM PDT.

Poll

VT-Sen: J Douglas (R-1951) vs P Leahy (D-1940) ?

84%21 votes
8%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
4%1 votes
4%1 votes

| 25 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Racine, Markowitz, and Spaulding (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kestrel9000, abgin

    Are running for Governor.

    No democrat will running against Leahy. There will be a candidate from another party, probably Liberty Union and/or Progressive, for senate, but they'll get next to no votes. Douglas is getting old and his popularity is waning. If he's going to run for higher office, he's looking at 2010 or 2012 on the outside, but only if he's out of office in 2010 (so his reputation can't take any more beating).

    None of the existing national-officeholders will be threatened by a Doesless run. So it will all depend on how much his ambition outweighs his common sense. My bet is he'll run for gov again, and this time he'll lose. People whose jobs were cut unnecessarily will remember his role in forcing those cuts. People whose benefits were cut because he blew $46 million dollars in federal matching funds for Medicaid will remember his blunder. His defense of Entergy's attempt to avoid funding the decommissioning costs for Vt Yankee power plant, combined with multiple failures and leaks at the plant in the last 18 months have hurt him, too. ... I finally feel that his days are numbered. The "Mr. Nice Guy" image has finally lost its sheen, and the "Mr. Can't Get Anything Right" flower has started to bloom.

    Hey guys! There's a word for bad assets, they're called liabilities!

    by mataliandy on Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 01:14:52 AM PDT

    •  very interesting comment (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mataliandy

      I think democratic party need fastly good polls about gubernatorial race in Vermont for see if these mid level possible candidates for governor can defeat Douglas in 2010.

      If is not enough with they for assure the victory, H Dean can be an option. For me the last option is let continue J Douglas unnecessarily.

      •  I want to draft Dean (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin

        But he's not interested. Which is sad, because having him in office would give the state party some breathing room to grow a crop of candidates to follow in his footsteps.

        I know a couple of people who want to spend a few years in the legislature, then run, but none of them are at a point where they could run now. A placeholder until they're ready would be very helpful.

        I do think Markowitz and Racine both have a decent chance. If we can get the primaries changed to June (currently in September, leaving no time to gather a broad base of support post-primary), I think the winner between the two has a solid shot at the seat.

        We already know that the Progressives will run a candidate - they have no choice, they need to run candidates for offices at certain levels, and receive a certain percentage of the vote in order to remain an official party in the state.

        Hey guys! There's a word for bad assets, they're called liabilities!

        by mataliandy on Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 10:39:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          I think you are rigth. If progressives get low than 10% they are chance of defeat J Douglas. And a good poll, including Dean would be very interesting now. Make a poll don't like tell he must run, we can see with the poll of J Douglas against P Leahy. That would show J Douglas real weakness.

          In this diary, J Douglas appear like the more weak republican incumbent (only against Dean) for next electoral round in all the country. Arlen Specter (only against Rendell) is the second, J Gibbons is the third and J Bunning is the fourth.

          Is bad new read Dean is not interested. I think H Dean can help very much in Vermont.

  •  leahy will die in office (0+ / 0-)

    Leahey is one of those senators for life, he will probably die in office. I lived in Vermont when he was elected years ago. I remember Vermont always voted republican but they were progressive republicans, new England types.
    They no longer exist in the GOP except maybe Olympia Snowe.I don`t know much about Douglas but I assume he must be pretty moderate to be elected in Vermont.

    •  god I hope not. (0+ / 0-)

      I love Pat Leahy but I really hope that he doesn't stay on until he dies.  In fact, I think one more term would be just fine.  Yes, we'd lose seniority in the Senate but 40+ years is long enough.

      As for Douglas, in many states he'd be considered a moderate dem, but he's still a terrible gov.  

      two cheers for democracy

      by ClaryinVT on Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 05:31:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Leahy is the only Democrat to be elected (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    to the US Senate from Vermont since the founding of the modern Democratic party in the 1820s. Why would anyone run against him?

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