Todays diary will be about Vermont. In this state republicans have J Douglas like incumbent governor, and he his one of more important political figures what they have in blue states.
The incumbent senator P Leahy (D-1940) seems very popular and strong in his home state. Seems he will not have problems in no-one case. Seems he can defeat so easily all possible republican candidates. We can see about that in this diary.
Until now the polls let P Leahy leading very clearly over J Douglas (58%-36%), who likely will decide run for reelection. I think J Douglas strongness is not real. I tell that because we can see like democrats if have the rigth candidate can defeat J Douglas in the gubernatorial race. We can see that in this diaries:
What chance of win can have J Douglas against P Leahy, B Sanders or H Dean? I think very low. We see against H Dean in the diary about this option. They are three high level "democrats" for three first level offices in Vermont.
Republican party seems very poor in Vermont, and they have governor and lieutenant governor's offices (J Douglas and B Dubie). This like tell republicans are taking advantage. I think democratic party must try defeat this republican incumbent. For me would be very good new see a really serious bid in Vermont with H Dean or B Sanders (and H Dean for his senate seat). I like encourage they for bid defeat J Douglas. Why let chance of win to a republican in Vermont?
Coming back, to this senate race, i think if democratic party make this serious bid for win the governors office, can be more easy J Douglas run for senate. And Leahy will defeat him by second time (first was in 1992). If J Douglas not run, republicans will not have a decent candidate.
In democratic side is very unlikely see any challenger in primaries against P Leahy, but like i make for all states, i will include the list of possible candidates:
- Patrick Joseph Leahy: VT 1940 Senator from Vermont 75- .
- Howard Brush Dean III: NY VT 1948 Governor of Vermont 91-03. Lieutenant Governor of VT 87-91. Lost for President in 04.
- Peter F Welch: MA VT 1947 USHRep 07- . Lost for Governor 90. Lost for House 88.
- Douglas A Racine: VT 1952 Lieutenant Governor of Vermont 97-03. Lost for Governor 02.
- Deborah Markowitz: NY VT 1961 VT Secretary of State 99- .
- Thomas M Salmon: VT 1963 VT Auditor of Accounts 07- .
- William H Sorrell: VT 1947 VT Attorney General 97- .
- George B Spaulding: MA VT 1952 VT State Treasurer 03- .
Without P Leahy, is the same list what for gubernatorial race. Any of they are running for governor. We can see in the list like they are more young possible candidates for the future, but maybe in this moment, they can not defeat J Douglas.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%.
HI-Sen: L Lingle (R-1953) vs D Inouye (D-1924) ? after 18 votes = 09,444 => Safe Democratic
VT-Sen: J Douglas (R-1951) vs P Leahy (D-1940) ? after 24 votes = 09,097 => Safe Democratic
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? af 28 votes = 08,750 Safe Democr
AR-Sen: open R vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? after 16 votes = 08,646 => Safe Democratic
IN-Sen: M Daniels (R-1949) vs E Bayh (D-1955) ? after 20 votes = 08,500 => Likely Democratic
IL-Sen: open R vs open D ? after 26 votes = 08,269 => Likely Democratic
CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 38 votes = 07,851 => Likely Democratic
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 34 votes = 07,843 => Likely Democratic
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? af 67 votes = 07,811 => Likely Democrat
ND-Sen: J Hoeven (R-1957) vs B Dorgan (D-1942) ? af 17 votes = 07,745 => Likely Democratic
N NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs J Lynch (D-1952) ? af 20 votes = 07,583 => Likely Democratic
N? OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 14 votes = 07,381 => Likely Dem
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 47 votes = 07,234 => Likely Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 12 votes = 06,944 => Leans Democratic
N? CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 34 votes = 06,765 => Leans Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? af 32 votes = 06,146 => Leans Democratic
N? AR-Sen: M Huckabee (R-1955) vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? af 24 votes = 05,972 => Leans Democ
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 21 votes = 05,952 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 37 votes = 05,631 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 34 votes = 05,098 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 44 votes = 04,924 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 58 votes = 03,678 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
2 FL-Sen: C Crist (R-1956) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,283 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 20 votes = 01,250 => Safe Republican
*: The diary about Florida with an * is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.