The next installment in the Wyoming Rule series looks at Florida. This state is very similar in population and congressional districts to the last state I looked at, New York. But these two seats are nearly polar opposites in redistricting results under the Wyoming Rule.
My initial goal with Florida was to get rid of the egregious gerrymanders of FL-03, FL-22, and FL-23. I still had in mind, however, that Republicans hold the trifecta in Florida and would draw themselves a favorable map. To that end, I split Jacksonville 3 ways and paid tribute to Republican gerrymandering abilities by drawing in a new odd district for Allen West.
Previous diaries:
ID, NM, NC, NY, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA
Current seat count: 58D-86R
Florida state map
North Florida
FL-01 Jeff Miller (R-Chumuckla)
Rep. Miller has an extremely conservative district in the western panhandle. The most Republican voting district in the country may be here: Pensacola Christian College. 4000+ population, 93.6% McCain. Are there any other districts with as many people with a higher McCain?
33% Obama 67% McCain
R+20
FL-02 Steve Southerland (R-Panama City)
In 2010, FL-02 went Republican for the first time since Reconstruction. In this configuration, it won't be going back any time soon. Tallahassee is now split between the 2nd and the 4th.
40% Obama 60% McCain
R+11
FL-03 Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville)
Rep. Brown's district has changed considerably and she most likely can't win here. The district is no longer the Jacksonville to Orlando vote sink. It is now one of three districts helping Republicans split Jacksonville.
46% Obama 54% McCain
R+10
FL-04 Ander Crenshaw (R-Jacksonville)
Rep. Crenshaw's district is still a Tallahassee to Jacksonville district, but it takes in a bit more of both and therefore becomes quite a bit less Republican. It still should be pretty safe.
46% Obama 54% McCain
R+10
FL-26 Open
This would be a new district in Jacksonville and St. Johns County. It is very Republican and would be a safe GOP pickup.
38% Obama 62% McCain
R+18
FL-06 Cliff Stearns (R-Ocala)
Rep. Stearns' district shifts westward and becomes more of a Gainesville-based district. It becomes more Democratic and could go that way in a good Dem year.
48% Obama 52% McCain
R+6
Orlando
FL-07 John Mica (R-Winter Park)
This is the successor to Rep. Mica's old district. He doesn't live here, but he's actually closer to this district than he is to his current district. It becomes about a point more Democratic than before.
48% Obama 52% McCain
R+6
FL-24 Sandy Adams (R-Orlando)
This is the successor to Rep. Adams' district. It gets pushed a little east and a little north, but in the end, the partisan breakdown remains exactly the same.
49% Obama 51% McCain
R+4
FL-27 Open
This is a new district based in Citrus County that takes in much of the old FL-05. The district reaches up to Ocala and east into Sumter and Lake counties. It is a safe Republican district.
42% Obama 58% McCain
R+12
FL-28 Open
This is the first of two Orlando-based Democratic districts. No incumbent is here, so it would be an open seat. The district starts in Orlando then goes north into Seminole County. It is 50% white, 28% black, 16% Hispanic.
64% Obama 36% McCain
D+9
FL-08 Daniel Webster (R-Orlando)
This is the second Orlando-based Democratic district. Incumbent Republican Daniel Webster could not win here. It is just short of a Hispanic majority. At 45% Hispanic and 10% black, it is a coalition district.
64% Obama 36% McCain
D+9
FL-29 Open
This is a new district in the fast growing middle part of the state. It picks up the leftovers from the surrounding districts, so it ends up with parts of 5 counties: Sumter, Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Polk. It would be expected to go Republican.
47% Obama 53% McCain
R+7
FL-05 Rich Nugent (R-Spring Hill)
Rep. Nugent's district condenses into just Hernando and Pasco counties. It also becomes quite a bit more Democratic.
49% Obama 51% McCain
R+5
FL-15 Bill Posey (R-Rockledge)
Rep. Posey's Brevard County based district loses Democratic Kissimmee to the new 8th, making this district much safer for the sophomore congressman.
45% Obama 55% McCain
R+9
Tampa
FL-09 Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor)
Rep. Bilirakis' district becomes more compact and is now in northern Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. It becomes a smidge more Democratic.
48% Obama 52% McCain
R+6
FL-10 Bill Young (R-Indian Shores)
There's only so much Republicans can do to help Rep. Young's St. Petersburg-based district. I manage to move it maybe a point to the right.
51% Obama 49% McCain
R+2
FL-11 Kathy Castor (D-Tampa)
Rep. Castor's district is a Democratic vote sink around Tampa. It takes in the most Democratic parts of St. Petersburg, Bradenton, and Tampa. As before, it is a coalition minority-majority district, but the white percentage drops down to 41%, maybe encouraging a challenge from a minority candidate.
74% Obama 26% McCain
D+19
FL-12 Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland)
Rep. Ross' district is now contained almost entirely within Hillsborough County, with slivers into Pasco County and his home in Polk County. It becomes safely Republican in this map.
46% Obama 54% McCain
R+9
Central Florida
FL-13 Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota)
The make up of Rep. Buchanan's Bradenton-Sarasota district remains largely unchanged. As expected, the partisan breakdown also remains unchanged.
48% Obama 52% McCain
R+6
FL-16 Open
FL-16 is concentrated in the middle of the state and no longer reaches all the way across. As a result, current representative Tom Rooney does not live here and really does not live close enough to be able to run here unless he moves. I would expect any decent Republican candidate would be able to hold this district however.
45% Obama 55% McCain
R+10
FL-30 Tom Rooney (R-Tequesta)
This is a new district on the Atlantic coast that fits neatly within Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties and adds Rep. Rooney's home in Palm Beach County. It is slightly more Democratic than Rooney's current district.
49% Obama 51% McCain
R+4
FL-31 Open
This is another new seat in south Florida. It stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to western Palm Beach County. It is fairly Republican and could be expected to elect one in most years.
46% Obama 54% McCain
R+9
FL-14 Connie Mack (R-Fort Myers)
Rep. Mack retains his Naples-to-Fort Myers district with just a few minor changes. It is still safely Republican.
43% Obama 57% McCain
R+11
FL-32 Allen West (R-Plantation)
This new district is my homage to Florida Republicans' gerrymandering skills. I am not quite as skillful, but still managed to put together one odd district for Allen West that takes in some Republican strength in Naples and stretches it to Broward and Palm Beach counties. Even after all this finagling, it's still a 50/50 district.
50% Obama 50% McCain
R+3
Palm Beach/Broward
FL-22 Open
Allen West's old district becomes a northern Palm Beach County district that includes Jupiter and West Palm Beach. I would expect a Democrat to take and hold this district.
61% Obama 39% McCain
D+11
FL-19 Ted Deutch (D-Boca Raton)
Rep. Deutch's district becomes a southern Palm Beach County district that includes Lake Worth, Boynton Beach, and parts of Boca Raton.
64% Obama 36% McCain
D+14
FL-23 Alcee Hastings (D-Miramar)
I got rid of the hideously gerrymandered FL-23 and replaced it with this compact district in northern Broward County. As a result, it is no longer an AA-majority district, but both FL-23 and FL-20 end up being coalition districts. This one is 31% AA and 19% Hispanic.
74% Obama 26% McCain
D+19
FL-20 Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston)
FL-20 turns into a southern Broward County district that includes Plantation and Hollywood. It is 24% AA and 27% Hispanic.
70% Obama 30% McCain
D+15
Miami-Dade
FL-17 Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens)
I manage to maintain Rep. Wilson's AA-majority Miami area district. It is almost 60% AA.
90% Obama 10% McCain
D+36
FL-33 Open
Here I create a district which Miami-Dade currently lacks: one that is Hispanic-majority AND Democratic-leaning. This district stretches from Homestead up to North Miami. It is 57% Hispanic and 15% AA.
65% Obama 35% McCain
D+10
FL-21 Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami)
Rep. Diaz Balart is now contained to northern Miami-Dade County and includes Hialeah and Miami Lakes. It is a 74% Hispanic majority district. Partisan breakdown remains the same.
49% Obama 51% McCain
R+5
FL-25 David Rivera (R-Miami)
Rep. Rivera now gets a tremendouly compact district within Miami-Dade County. It no longer stretches up to Naples. Due to the new FL-33, it becomes radically safer. There is a Hispanic majority here, with the VAP% at 89%.
42% Obama 58% McCain
R+12
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami)
Rep. Ros-Lehtinen keeps her familiar Maimi to Key West district. It is 60% Hispanic. The new district swings two points in her favor, with the district going from an Obama district to a McCain district.
49% Obama 51% McCain
R+5
So there we have Florida. Even with getting rid of the FL-03 and FL-22 gerrymanders, it still ends up 24-9. Democratic voters are just too concentrated in Orlando, Tampa, and Palm Beach/Broward/Miami-Dade.