Oklahoma specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on 38 delegate allocation. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Oklahoma has few congressional districts with odd number of delegates thereby providing an advantage. Thus advantages can be accrued fast.
Basic Data: Oklahoma has 38 delegates available. There are 5 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations, there are 6 different delegate allocation units. The delegates are in the usual 4,5,6 sets. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 4 from CD3 ::: 5 from CD1 CD2 CD4 ::: 6 from CD5. Additional 13 are allocated based on state-wide results. Oklahoma operates a open primary.
Presidential preference primary is on 1st March2016. Voter registration/amendment/party affiliation deadline was 5th Feb. Participation is open to all Democrats and independents.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. I have grouped the Congressional districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them.The thresholds %s are relative to each other. For example, this means that a vote results of 49-48-2 is effectively, 50.5 — 49.5. This is derived from 49/(49+48) vs 48/(49+48)
Delegates Acquired
Out of available
|
4 Del
CD3
|
5 del
cd1 cd2 cd4
|
6 del
cd5
|
Delegate Allocation Thresholds/Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.3 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
For 4 Delegates at CD3: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. To gain a definitive advantage a candidate needs to cross 62.5% trigger resulting in a delegate split of 3-1.
For 5 Delegates at CD1 CD2 CD4: First delegate acquird at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems a bit too much of a demand on any campaign. These districts becomes very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour.
For 6 Delegates at CD5: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level. Even in candidates home states and districts we have not yet seen this kind of support. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: State-wide results work towards two different category of delegates; 8 At-Large delegates and 5 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, the odd number allocations would reward state-wide winner with overall at least two delegate advantages.
For 5 PLEO Delegates: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. available. Both campaigns probably have that 30% support needed for 2 delegates. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. One again the state-wide winner gets an extra delegate advantage in this category.
Delegates |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
Vote % 5 PLEO |
15 |
30 |
50 |
70 |
85 |
— |
— |
__ |
Vote % 8 At-Large |
15 |
18.8 |
31.3 |
43.8 |
56.3 |
68.8 |
81.3 |
85 |
For 8 At-Large Delegates (State-wide): First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 18.8% and third at 31.3%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. For Sanders the goal will be to achieve 43.8% target to make the districts break even (4-4). For Clinton the target would be to score higher than 56.3%. The extra delegates achieving triggers are listed above.
Next bit is my personal opinion only: Most of the contest is likely to be getting statewide share around 60% region for those extra triggers all over that 50-60% section. I suspect every odd delegate break will go on Clinton favour. with mostly breaking at 2-2, 3-2, 4-2. Since new registration deadline for primary has expired, I am expecting that Clinton will have an advantage with around 60% vote support. Overall delegates splitting 23-15.
If you forgot the deadline for registration for primary, there is still time to register for the General.
Previously covered states: Arkansas and Alabama and South-Carolina and Virginia and Massachusetts and New-Hampshire and Vermont and Georgia
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
Meanwhile for a break I suggest reading our own guavaboy diaries with some news about optimistic changes in Nepal economic blockade by India.http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/05/1480305/-Feb-5th-the-Nepal-BLOCKADE-in-Birgunj-is-LIFTED-after-135-days