If you are like me, this election season is a bit of rollercoaster. There are days when you feel optimistic and hopeful and then you see the results of some crazy poll or hear about some group of disaffected democrats OR remember how truly nuts Trump is and you get scared.
If that is you — I feel you. I am you. I know. This is tough.
But here is the thing, when I look at all of this logically, I am actually pretty hopeful. I would MUCH rather be us than them.
And this isn’t based on feelings or instinct or some other wishy-washy rubric. This is based on facts.
Here are 10 things that make me hopeful for November:
1. The victory in Alabama this week was ANOTHER example of how we are outperforming polls and expectations in the post-Roe environment.
People sure love polls, but the best predictor for the last few years was special election performance. And you guys, we are continuing to do really well there.
just this past week:
Alabama Democrat flips GOP seat after campaigning against threats to IVF
Democrat Marilyn Lands defeated Republican Teddy Powell on Tuesday in a 62-37 landslide, easily prevailing in a nationally watched special election for a GOP-held seat in the Alabama House of Representatives.
Lands outperformed the 10th District's normal lean by wide margins: Donald Trump carried the district by a 49-48 spread in 2020, according to Dave's Redistricting App, while voters favored Republican David Cole over Lands 52-45 two years later.
Powell, a member of the City Council in Madison, adopted a very different strategy. He instead focused on issues like infrastructure and downplayed the importance of reproductive rights. "It's certainly an issue that needs to be dealt with," he told Politico, "but not our top issue. I don't think that this is the issue that wins or loses the race."
That calculus turned out to be wrong, and Lands just gave Democrats good reason to believe that Powell will be only the first of many Republicans to pay the price at the ballot box this year.
more on this → Marilyn Lands Achieves Stunning 33-Point Swing for Democrats in Alabama
Democrat Marilyn Lands won an upset victory in Alabama on Tuesday when she defeated Republican and Madison City Council member Teddy Powell in a special election for the Alabama state House that represents a 33-point swing for Democrats.
Lands won the election with 63 percent of the vote to Powell's 37 percent with all precincts reporting in the race for House District 10. The Democrat made abortion rights and access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) major themes of her campaign.
This is the first election in Alabama since the state Supreme Court's ruling in February that threatened access to IVF and a major win for Democrats in a deep red state.
DLCC President Heather Williams called Lands' victory "a political earthquake in Alabama."
"This special election is a harbinger of things to come. Republicans across the country have been put on notice that there are consequences to attacks on IVF – from the bluest blue state to the reddest red, voters are choosing to fight for their fundamental freedoms by electing Democrats across the country," Williams went on.
2. I am skeptical of polling this far out (and generally, in this era) but it is still nice to see it trending better.
Big money, better polling: Democrats' electoral odds are improving
Last week, The Economist's presidential polling average set in motion a reevaluation of the general election when President Joe Biden pulled ahead of Donald Trump for the first time since September 2023.
To be clear, Biden isn't suddenly the odds-on favorite to win in November, but the fundamentals of the Biden-Trump contest do appear to be shifting in a slightly more favorable direction for Biden.
Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing state poll hints at Biden comeback
President Biden made significant gains against Donald Trump during the past month in six of seven 2024 swing states, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll out Tuesday.
Why it matters: It's the first time in months that the swing state poll has Biden within striking distance of Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.
- The poll measured a period in which Biden followed his impassioned State of the Union address with a swing state tour and a series of sharp attacks on Trump.
Zoom in: Biden performed best in the Rust Belt swing states, where both candidates have been arguing they are the best to resuscitate American industry.
3. People are finally getting happier about the economy
US Consumer Sentiment Jumps to Highest Level Since July 2021
US consumer sentiment rose markedly toward the end of March, supported by strong stock-market gains and expectations that inflation will continue to ease.
The University of Michigan’s sentiment index climbed to 79.4 from 76.5 earlier in the month, reaching the highest since mid-2021, according to the final March reading issued Thursday. The 2.9-point gain from the preliminary reading was the biggest intramonth increase since August 2022.
4. Our organization efforts are amazing and theirs are shit.
Biden campaign opening 10 field offices in North Carolina
President Biden's North Carolina campaign is ramping up efforts to mobilize Democratic voters and reach out to suburban swing voters by opening 10 new field offices across the state.
Why it matters: The Biden campaign has named North Carolina as one of its key battleground investments for the 2024 election. The president has already visited the state twice this year.
Zoom in: In addition to its headquarters in Raleigh, the Biden campaign is opening field offices in Forsyth, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Cumberland, Johnston, Orange, New Hanover, Buncombe, Cabarrus and Alamance counties.
- The locations highlight the campaign's belief that the state could be flipped by getting better turnout in larger cities like Charlotte and Greensboro.
- But it's also focusing on reaching out to Republican and unaffiliated voters in suburban counties, like Cabarrus (northeast of Charlotte), Johnston (southeast of Raleigh) and Alamance (wedged between Durham and Greensboro).
The big picture: North Carolina has been elusive for Democrats since 2008, but it's one of the few states where the presidential campaign is playing offense, NBC News reported.
- A senior Biden official told Axios' Sophia Cai the campaign this month has opened 44 offices in Wisconsin, 12 to 14 offices in Pennsylvania and 20 offices in Michigan.
Meanwhile, on the evil side of the street → Trump's RNC struggles in swing states as Biden's team grows
The Trump-led Republican National Committee is scrambling to boost staffs and give loyalty tests in seven battleground states at a time when several GOP state parties are plagued by dysfunction and disarray.
Why it matters: Less than eight months before the Nov. 5 election, significant parts of the RNC's get-out-the-vote operation in states likely to decide the election are playing catch-up after Trump's team ousted 60 staffers in its recent takeover.
- About a third of those ousted staffers were state directors and regional political directors, jobs that are key to recruiting, training and mobilizing volunteers far ahead of Election Day.
- They've been in limbo for two weeks, after receiving an email telling them they were being laid off but could reapply for their jobs.
Zoom in: Some have reapplied, and have been asked to participate in virtual interviews with less than a day's notice, a person familiar with the situation told Axios.
- One RNC staffer on the payroll through the end of this month was kicked out of their office by a Trump campaign aide, who also locked the staffer out of the data server the RNC has used to assist local campaigns.
- In the interviews, Trump's team has asked some candidates whether they believe the 2020 election was stolen, the Washington Post first reported.
- Trump's RNC initially cut the party's community centers for minority voters and a program to encourage early voting, but reinstated them after a backlash within the party.
The big picture: Many Republicans fear the RNC upheaval — and unrelated chaos in state parties, particularly in swing states Michigan and Arizona — is a setback for a party that for years has tried to get more volunteers to recruit support in their neighborhoods.
5. Their finances are crap
The RNC’s Fundraising Hole Is Even Deeper Than It Looks
The Republican National Committee is already way behind in the money wars for the 2024 election. But it’s even worse than almost anyone knows.
On the surface, the RNC currently has more than $11 million on hand for this upcoming election cycle. While that’s less than half of what the Democratic National Committee has in the bank at the moment—and far less than the $77 million the RNC had on hand at this point in the 2020 cycle—the RNC has pointed to fundraising numbers in recent months to suggest the party has turned a corner after a historically bad stretch last year.
However, a close examination of the RNC’s recent financial statements reveals that those numbers are hiding some holes. A lot of the RNC’s recent fundraising—millions of dollars of it—is unusable for political spending. Instead, that money can only support a limited range of activities.
National parties like the RNC and DNC don’t just have one bank account; they also maintain segregated funds for specially designated expenses—conventions, buildings and maintenance, and legal or recount expenses—which can also be funded by donors. Those accounts, sometimes called “Cromnibus” accounts, are subject to a separate set of rules, and while many of those regulations are still not set in stone, one of them is crystal clear: That money cannot be spent on political activity.
The Daily Beast’s analysis of Federal Election Commission filings found that, of the roughly $22.3 million that the RNC has reported raising this year, more than $8 million of it—about 36 percent—cannot be used for political expenses. (At this same point in 2020, the money in the RNC’s Cromnibus accounts accounted for less than 10 percent—$7.5 million—of the total $77 million cash on hand.)
That means that one of every three dollars the RNC has raised this year went into its auxiliary accounts, with the “legal” account alone receiving more than $4 million. By way of comparison, the DNC has reported about $34 million in receipts this year, with roughly $4 million of it—less than 12 percent—directed into its segregated Cromnibus accounts.
6. we have great people working with us who know how and when to campaign →
The Biden Campaign Is Quietly Preparing a Trump Ambush
The tide is turning, a Biden adviser argued to The Daily Beast, and although they aren’t putting too much stock into any recent polling upticks, the president’s team is ready to seize upon April and May as a crucial time to ambush a wounded Trump campaign.
“It’s aggressive,” a source within the Biden campaign said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly of the mood inside the re-election team. “There’s a lot of travel, there’s a lot of work. It’s all exciting. We’re heading into this final fundraiser of the month with the former presidents [Obama and Clinton], but it’s aggressive.”
Taking advantage of a substantial fundraising lead, the Biden campaign is focusing on two key areas: travel and organizing.
Since his State of the Union, Biden has visited every major battleground state—typically pairing official White House stops with separate private campaign events—in an effort to demonstrate his ability to keep an energetic schedule.
Trump, on the other hand, has only done a rally in Ohio and another in the battleground state of Georgia since Super Tuesday. Otherwise, he’s mostly been confined to his Mar-a-Lago estate as he prepares to spend the second half of April and most of May stuck in a Manhattan court four days a week for the upcoming Stormy Daniels hush money trial.
Second, the Biden campaign is going full steam ahead on hiring in the battleground states, approaching 100 field offices with more than 130 staffers spread across eight major battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, as well as North Carolina and New Hampshire.
Such investments mean that Biden can begin the crucial work of mobilizing voters early. The Trump campaign, by comparison, could not tell The Daily Beast whether they have made any additional hires or opened any field offices in the battleground states, beyond shifting over the same team focused on early primary and Super Tuesday states.
In an election which will likely be decided by less than tens of thousands of votes in a handful of battlegrounds, the Biden campaign is focusing on gaining as much as they can at the margins now to catch up to Trump.
Ramping up their field organizing, along with getting Biden on the road and in front of cameras to show he still has the energy to campaign at full throttle, is an opportunity they can’t afford to miss while Trump remains mired in legal and financial problems.
“I think the president is beginning to do the very important work that wins elections, which is travel the country, set the tone for what this election will be about, and build a coalition and build an operation that builds a winning coalition,” Kevin Munoz, Biden’s national campaign spokesperson, told The Daily Beast in a phone interview.
“At the same time that Donald Trump has very real infrastructure issues, has no interest in building a winning coalition and is actively attacking the voters that will decide this election, ultimately this will come down to those voters,” Munoz said.
7. Biden's case for re-election is improving
The economy is improving, inflation is falling, joblessness is down, and the stock market is hitting record highs. Crime is dropping. U.S. crude oil production is at an all-time high. A special counsel declined to bring charges against President Joe Biden for mishandling classified information, and the Republican impeachment inquiry is flailing.
Biden's case for re-election is strengthening, but he still enters the general election in a weaker position than he did in 2020, when he consistently led Donald Trump in national and swing state surveys, often by wide margins. His struggles come despite Trump’s mounting legal bills and four criminal cases, with one trial set to begin next month.
Democrats offer a variety of theories as to why.
“Because we haven’t made our argument yet,” Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, said in an interview.
“Democrats’ record on the economy, on crime, on making prescription drugs less expensive, on climate action, on civil rights, on human rights, on gun safety — our record is strong, and [Trump’s] record was catastrophically bad," he said. "But we haven’t spent any money and any time making that argument because we’ve been too busy doing the work. As we move into a different season, we’re going to be making that argument. Once people hear it, the votes move.”
8. Trump Has a Big Problem With GOP Voters
Donald Trump may believe the 2024 Republican presidential primary is done—but clearly, it’s not done with him.
In a series of state primary elections held after Nikki Haley became the last Trump challenger to drop out, stubborn and sizable minorities of Republicans have continued to cast ballots against the former president.
In Kansas’ primary on March 19, for instance, Trump secured 75 percent of the vote—impressive if he were facing active competition, but troubling given the competition had all withdrawn. Haley got 16 percent of the vote in Kansas, while 5 percent voted for “none of the names shown.”
and don’t forget about the Senate!
Given that Trump seemed tepid at best about the prospect of bringing Haley voters into the fold and truly persuading holdouts to support him, though, the results may not be especially surprising. And Haley herself has declined to endorse Trump so far.
“What you’ve seen since then is Trump has done next to nothing to earn their vote, so there’s still a lot of hostility among the people we’ve been talking to about Trump’s lack of outreach,” said Robert Schwartz, who is running a PAC focused on persuading Haley voters to support Biden.
9. Trump has made basics of getting elected harder for himself
GOP scrambles to organize early and mail voting despite Trump’s attacks
Republican officials privately say that whether Republican voters adapt to early in-person and mail voting could swing the 2024 election in closely contested states. But those efforts remain in tension with the fraud claims that animate Trump and the grass-roots MAGA movement.
Essentially, they are trying to persuade Trump voters to participate in voting methods that he falsely says are responsible for rampant fraud and cost him the White House four years ago.
“We hear it at the doors, some Republicans are still very reluctant now to drop their ballots in the mail,” said Jon Seaton, an Arizona Republican strategist who advised the state’s Republican senator John McCain. “President Trump clearly has a great deal of influence with Republican voters, so his support of mail-in voting will have a real impact on how many Republicans ultimately return their ballots by mail.”
10. WE HAVE ALL OF YOU
None of this will happen without hard work and YOU all are doing the work. WE are doing the work. Time and time again, they count us out and we show up!!!
YOU give me hope. YOU are amazing.
One additional area WE can be focused on for 2024? THE SENATE!
The GOP shouldn’t count on retaking the Senate. Remember 2010 and 2022?
Republicans, on paper, appear to have a golden opportunity to win back the Senate majority. Down just 49-51, the party figures it will easily win the West Virginia seat left open by the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin III.
But before Republicans start measuring the drapes in the majority leader’s office, they should take a hard look at their candidates.
In Arizona, Republicans are bent on nominating MAGA maniac Kari Lake, who lost her gubernatorial bid in 2022. For their Ohio nominee, Republicans went with Bernie Moreno, the choice of four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump, who suggested his opponent was too sympathetic toward LGBTQ+ issues — and yet, according to an Associated Press report, Moreno had an account created under his email address in 2008 on a website for gay men seeking casual sex. (A former Moreno intern has said he created the account as a juvenile prank.) Republicans cleared the field in Pennsylvania for David McCormick, whose residency in Pennsylvania is in doubt — bringing back memories of Mehmet Oz, the New Jerseyan who never recovered in 2022 from gibes about his residence.
By contrast, Democrats are running some of their savviest incumbents, each with a knack for ticket-splitting, such as Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Tester, you might recall, won by four points in 2012 despite President Barack Obama losing the state by almost 14 points. Likewise, Brown won in 2018 by about seven points while a Republican won for governor by four points and House Republicans won 12 of 16 seats with 75 percent of all votes cast in House races in Ohio. And in Wisconsin, Baldwin won in 2018 by 11 points, running about six points above the Democratic governor at the top of the ticket.
In addition, Democrats have recruited for open seats rising stars well-suited to their states (such as Reps. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Ruben Gallego in Arizona). Unlike with the GOP, the most extreme elements in the Democratic Party do not dominate the Senate primaries.
With such a divergence in candidate quality, the contest for control of the Senate is taking on some 2022 vibes. Then, Republicans thought they would win the Senate going away. However, as Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) let on, they suffered from a severe “candidate quality” problem
Democrats can beat Ted Cruz and Rick Scott this year. Yes, really
Democrats are poised to make a play in Texas and Florida against two of the most reviled Republican senators nationwide: Ted Cruz and Rick Scott.
“In both Texas and Florida, Republicans have unpopular and unlikable incumbents who have turned off voters of every political persuasion," Garcia told Daily Kos. Holding the seats Democrats have is paramount, but Garcia added that Democrats are working to "take advantage of the good offensive opportunities we have in Texas and Florida.”
Both Republicans have proven electoral weaknesses: Cruz held onto his seat in 2018 by just 2 points, and Scott has never won a general election by more than 1.2 points, his margin of victory in his first bid for governor back in 2010. It's been all downhill from there. In 2018, Scott secured his Senate seat by less than half a point, and he remains deeply unpopular, with approval and favorability ratings hovering around 35% among Florida voters.
Cruz's Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker and civil rights attorney, has come on strong. Allred was first elected in 2018, ousting incumbent Republican Pete Sessions from his seat in the 32nd Congressional District, which was nearly 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole.
Upon learning last year of Allred's intent to challenge Cruz, Cook Political Report downgraded the race from "solid" to "lean" Republican. When Allred officially announced his candidacy, he raised $2 million in the first 36 hours of his campaign. In the final quarter of 2023, Allred raised nearly $4.7 million, ending the year with $10.1 million in cash on hand, while Cruz raised about $2.7 million during the same period, with about $6.1 million on hand.
Allred also turned heads in the Democratic primary earlier this month, winning 59% of the vote in a nine-candidate contest, avoiding a runoff and demonstrating widespread appeal to voters across the state.
In head-to-head matchups against Cruz, several polls this year have found Allred polling even or just a couple points behind the two-term GOP incumbent.
In short, the Democratic nominee is a charismatic over-performer, while one of Cruz's most indelible images remains fleeing the state for Cancún, Mexico, in February 2021 as millions of Texans were without power amid a major winter storm.
In Florida, Democrats got the candidate they wanted in former Miami-area Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the first South American immigrant elected to Congress. Mucarsel-Powell still faces a crowded Democratic primary, but she has party backing and has posted solid fundraising numbers, raising more than $2 million in the final quarter of 2023.
In a recent head-to-head poll, Mucarsel-Powell is already giving Scott a run for his money, trailing him by just 3 points, 41% to 44%, in a Public Policy Polling survey paid for by EMILY's List. The survey also found she had plenty of room to grow, with 63% of Florida voters saying they were unsure about their opinion of her. The same poll showed 53% of Florida voters think it's time to elect someone new to the U.S. Senate.
Keeping the senate would be a game changer for us! In order to help, we here at the GNR have set up a “one stop” donation spot that will send our money to the 9 most competitive Senate races. To donate, click on:
Your donations will immediately be funneled to those 9 states along with the rest of the donations from our community. Lets help AND show the Democrats that our community stands with them!
c’mon, donate. It’ll make you feel good :)
Democrats are Doing Great things
First cars, now trucks: Biden takes aim at tailpipe pollution
Rayan Makarem worries about the air that his 2-year-old daughter breathes. More than 100 diesel-powered trucks rumble through their neighborhood every half an hour, spewing harmful pollutants linked to asthma and other health conditions.
The pollution in their community — and others like it nationwide — will be curbed under a climate change rule the Environmental Protection Agency finalized Friday. The rule will require manufacturers to slash emissions of greenhouse gases from new trucks, delivery vans and buses. Those limits, in turn, will reduce deadly particulate matter and lung-damaging nitrogen dioxide from such vehicles.
The EPA rule follows strict emissions limits for gas-powered cars aimed at accelerating the nation’s halting transition to electric vehicles. It marks the first time in more than two decades that the federal government has cracked down on pollution from diesel trucks.
Biden administration strengthens Endangered Species Act protections weakened under Trump
The Biden administration on Thursday strengthened protections of the Endangered Species Act, repealing Trump-era rules that had stripped safeguards for plants and animals that are threatened by human development and the climate crisis.
The newly finalized regulations will reinstate so-called blanket rule protections for species listed as threatened with extinction in addition to those listed as endangered. In 2019, the Trump administration removed protections for threatened species, a specification that falls below endangered.
The Biden administration rules also finalized a provision that agencies can’t consider the economic impact of listing certain species as threatened or endangered – another Trump-era provision. The new rules will also consider the threat of climate change.
“As species face new and daunting challenges, including climate change, degraded and fragmented habitat, invasive species, and wildlife disease, the Endangered Species Act is more important than ever to conserve and recover imperiled species now and for generations to come,” US Fish and Wildlife Service Director Martha Williams said in a statement.
Biden’s plans to build the economy from the bottom and middle up are working.
U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Unexpectedly Upwardly Revised To 3.4%
The U.S. economy unexpectedly grew by more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter of 2023, the Commerce Department revealed in a report released on Thursday.
Revised data showed real gross domestic product surged by 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previously reported 3.2 percent jump. Economists had expected the pace of GDP growth to be unrevised.
All major indexes rise for the fifth month in a row. Dow and S&P 500 strike new records
US markets ended Thursday little changed, but all major indexes managed to mark their fifth consecutive winning month.
The S&P 500 was up 0.1% on Thursday, reaching a new record high. The Dow gained 47 points, or 0.1% also hitting a new high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 0.1% lower.
Thursday was the final day of trading for March and the first quarter of 2024, wrapping up an outstanding quarter for US stocks.
The S&P 500 notched 22 new highs in the first three months of 2024 alone, and the Dow is just points away from reaching the key threshold of 40,000 for the first time ever.
For the quarter, the S&P 500 is about 10.2% higher, its strongest first quarter since 2019. The Dow is up 5.6% – its strongest first quarter since 2021. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, gained more than 9%.
Bad News for Bad Guys
Judge Keeps April 15 as Start of Trump Hush-Money Trial
Donald J. Trump is all but certain to become the first former American president to stand trial on criminal charges after a judge on Monday denied his effort to delay the proceeding and confirmed it would begin next month.
The trial, in which Mr. Trump will be accused of orchestrating the cover-up of a simmering sex scandal surrounding his 2016 presidential campaign, had originally been scheduled to start this week. But the judge, Juan M. Merchan, had pushed the start date to April 15 to allow Mr. Trump’s lawyers to review newly disclosed documents from a related federal investigation.
President Biden’s campaign responds to Trump’s post-hearing, post-bond-decision news conference: “Donald Trump is weak and desperate – both as a man and a candidate for president,” the four-paragraph statement said, adding that the presumptive Republican nominee was “lying about having money he definitely doesn’t have.” The statement concluded: “America deserves better than a feeble, confused and tired Donald Trump.”
Trump’s worst enemy is still Trump
Former president Trump increasingly faces threats to his campaign stemming from his past actions and contempt for the law. While the wheels of justice turn slowly, four criminal cases against him remain. The New York trial on falsification of business records will likely begin in April, now that the judge issued a slew of devastating evidentiary rulings against Trump. New polling suggests a conviction in Manhattan could significantly hurt him in November.
Trump’s most acute vulnerability remains his mouth. He continues to spew noxious views that provoke harsh media coverage and even draw rebukes from some Republicans.
Trump Gets Hit With Sweeping Gag Order in Hush Money Trial
The judge overseeing Donald Trump’s upcoming hush money trial in New York hit the former president with a gag order on Tuesday, just one day after Trump peddled a conspiracy theory about a prosecutor—and hours after the tycoon levied attacks against the judge’s daughter.
New York Supreme Court Justice Juan M. Merchan forbade Trump from speaking publicly about line prosecutors and court staff—or even their family members. He also subjected Trump to the same sorts of precautionary warnings the former president has faced from other judges in separate cases, ordering him to not even mention any prospective jurors.
Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher will resign early, leaving House majority hanging by a thread
Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., who announced last month he would not run for re-election, will resign from Congress early, he confirmed in a statement Friday.
Gallagher’s departure before the end of his term in January is another blow to Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and House Republicans, who have been struggling to govern and demonstrate stability in this Congress.
On the Lighter Side
What can you do to save democracy
Take action. Nothing makes you feel better than action.
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We have a great candidate!
I am so lucky and so proud to be in this with all of you 💓💚💛🧡✊🏻✊🏽✊🏾✊🏿✊❤️🧡💛💚
