First the grey elephant in the room: The NYT not only released a ridiculous poll this week, but then they milked it with follow up stories on why Biden is losing so badly and why everyone is abandoning him.
Look, I don't know if this is because the NYT is pissed that Biden won’t give them an exclusive interview, the NYT wants panic inducing headlines so they get more clicks, or the NYT genuinely wants Trump to win because he sells more papers, but way smarter people than me have pointed out that this is horseshit.
It is nuts that it was followed up with a more favorable poll which they pretty much buried:
NYT Releases A Second Poll, This One Has Biden Up 3
In the you have to be kidding me category yesterday the NYT released a second national poll conducted with a different pollster, Ipsos. This poll did not find the kind of structural weakness for Biden their big Monday poll did. In this poll Biden leads 45.5% to 42.5% (+3) in their initial head to heads between the two candidates.
To understand what an outlier Monday’s NYT battleground states poll was let’s look at the other national and state polls released in recent days (Biden-Trump):
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NPR/Marist 51%-46% (+5) likely voters
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ABC News 49%-45% (+4) likely voters
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NYT/Ipsos 45.5%-42.5% (+3)
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RMG 44%-42% (+2) likely voters
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TIPP 42%-40% (+2)
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Big Village 42%-41% (+1) likely voters
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Data For Progress 47%-46% (+1)
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Economist/YouGov 43%-43% (tied)
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Yahoo/YouGov 45%-45% (tied)
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USA/Suffolk 37%-37% (tied)
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Morning Consult 43%-44% (-1) and 43%-43% (tied)
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Quinnipiac Wisconsin 50%-44% (+6)
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Orbital Digital Arizona 39%-38% (+1)
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CBS News MI 51%-49% PA 49%-50% WI 49%-50%
12 national polls. Biden leads in 7, 4 are tied, Trump leads in 1. State polls by serious credible pollsters showing Biden in far better shape than the NYT polls. All of these polls, with the exception of Data For Progress are independent polls, not controlled or paid for left of center organizations. I include DfP because historically their polling has not been favorable to Democrats.
Part of the reason I got the 2022 election right when so many got it wrong was that I broke out independent polls like these from polling averages which had been influenced by a flood of Republican aligned polls. These Republican funded polls often produced results 3-4 more points more Republican than independent polling. I think we are starting to see something similar happen in this election, with most independent polls finding a close competitive election, perhaps one now where we have a slight advantage; and R funded polling (and NYT/Siena) finding it much more Republican. It’s clear Trump and Republicans think they are seeing a new red wave, and that they lead. I don’t think it's a fair read of the data, just as I didn’t think the red wave was a fair read of the data in 2022.
And some people see some bad intent on this poll.
Scarborough Accuses NYT/Sienna of Intentionally Manipulating Polls to Mold Reality. He's Not Alone.
Joe Scarborough on MSNBC completely destroyed the swing state polling by NYT/Sienna this morning — and his factual points and the ones referring to the trend in how they report them, were cogent — but more importantly, he shared quotes from multiple polling experts who are also calling out their methodology — especially of the most recent one — and in the end, he directly accuses NYT/Sienna of manipulating their results.
This really is a must-see, as Scarborough is directly accusing NYT/Sienna of creating false, outlier results that when dug into, make zero sense (“likely voters” — who have NEVER voted before is just one example) and appear designed to manipulate reality and drive a false narrative for a week in the news — as the cross tabs are so absurdly and nakedly bewildering that there appears to just be no other explanation.
Scarborough, himself saying it is one thing — but polling experts across the board, as Scarborough shows, are also tweeting a smörgåsbord of WTF’s at the NYT’s methodology.
The beginning of his rant is about the fact that the national poll from NYT/Sienna shows Biden leading by 4 points — and yet, the NYT has no articles on it or headlines to promote that result, which, in the world of social media, means it may as well not exist — but instead, has MULTIPLE articles and headlines about their absurd swing state polling — (Trump leading Biden with young voters by 27 points is….quite a pill to swallow, for example; Trump *has* gained with young voters, but if he’s leading by almost 30 points with them, I’m Captain Crunch) — which would almost make sense, considering the importance of state-by-state polling vs. national...*if* it wasn’t for the fact that they ONLY seem to promote the state polling that a) shows Trump winning and that b) have methodology problems that are not only glaringly obvious and resulting in experts calling them to the mat, but increasingly suspicious.
look, polling is flawed and we shouldn’t live and die by polls. The fact is this is a close race, but we are in a good position and we can pull this out. Instead of tearing our your hair about this (or other) polls, remind yourself that this was actually a good week for Biden and then DO SOMETHING to help us win.
What can you do?
First DONATE!!!!!
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How was this a good week?
1. There was great economic news
First this:
America is in the midst of an extraordinary startup boom
Although America has a deserved reputation as a country at the cutting-edge of innovation, fuelled by entrepreneurial vim, in recent years some economists have worried that this reputation no longer holds true. Startups have formed a smaller and smaller portion of the business landscape: in 1982 some 38% of American firms were less than five years old; by 2018, 29% were that young. The share of Americans working for startups likewise fell. Silicon Valley sizzled with high-tech wizardry, but its giant companies hoarded the best researchers, leading to a slower spread of new ideas throughout the country. Researchers, including at the Federal Reserve, pointed to this decline in dynamism as a cause of weaker productivity growth.
Suddenly, what was old appears to be new. An array of data indicate that Americans are rediscovering their go-getting spirit. The most striking evidence comes from applications to form businesses, a proxy for startup activity. These soared in mid-2020, when America was still in the grip of covid-19. The initial surge was easy to dismiss: some of the new firms were scams, trying to profit from the government’s financial assistance for small businesses; others reflected the strangeness of the moment, with companies set up to import face masks or flog hand sanitiser.
But now, well after the pandemic has faded away, the surge continues. Last year applications to form businesses reached 5.5m, a record. Although they have slowed a touch this year, the monthly average is still about 80% higher than during the decade prior to covid, compared with just a 20% rise in Europe. Startups normally play an outsized role in creating employment in America, as elsewhere. By definition, every startup job counts as new, whereas mature companies have more churn. That difference has become even starker. In the four years before the pandemic, established firms added one net job for every four created by startups; in the four years since the pandemic, established firms have actually lost one job for every four created by startups.
Perhaps even more important than the numbers is the kind of ventures that are being created. In 2020 and 2021 many startups catered to the working-from-home revolution. These included online retailers, small trucking firms and landscapers. Since mid-2022, however, the baton has been passed to technology firms, according to Ryan Decker of the Fed and John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland. A paper published in March by the Census Bureau found a particularly sharp increase last year in business applications based around artificial intelligence (AI). For researchers, this carries echoes of the 1990s, when computers and the internet took off. “It feels like a step-change increase across the economy in entrepreneurial potential,” says Kenan Fikri of Economic Innovation Group, a think-tank. “You never know which firm is going to be the next growth firm. So the more shots on goal you have, the better.”
ICYMI: "The Great American Innovation Engine Is Firing Again"
This weekend, Americans are reading about how President Biden's CHIPS and Science Act has catapulted the U.S. tech manufacturing ecosystem forward and restored America's leadership in critical industries of the future. Less than two years after President Biden signed the bill into law, companies like TSMC, Intel, and Microsoft are building semiconductor fabs and data centers on American soil that will employ thousands of hard-working, middle-class Americans. According to Financial Times, "The US has both the intent and the capability to reassert global technological leadership." Shoring up American supply chains, driving American competitiveness, and creating job opportunities in communities across the country — the President's economic agenda is delivering for American workers and businesses.
and then this:
Inflation Cooled Slightly, Offering Some Relief for Consumers and the Fed
A closely watched measure of inflation eased last month, an encouraging sign for the economy after three straight months of uncomfortably rapid price increases.
The Consumer Price Index climbed 3.4 percent in April, down from 3.5 percent in March, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The “core” index — which strips out volatile food and fuel prices in order to give a sense of the underlying trend — rose 3.6 percent last month, down from 3.8 percent a month earlier. It was the lowest annual increase in core inflation since early 2021.
US inflation eased last month in the first slowdown of 2024
Led by lower food and auto prices, inflation in the United States cooled slightly last month after three elevated readings, likely offering a tentative sigh of relief for officials at the Federal Reserve as well as President Joe Biden’s re-election team.
Consumer prices rose 0.3% from March to April, the Labor Department said Wednesday, down slightly from 0.4% the previous month. Measured year-over-year, inflation ticked down from 3.5% to 3.4%. And a gauge of underlying inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, reached its lowest level in three years…..
……Wednesday’s report provides a dose of reassurance that the pace of price increases may be resuming its slowdown. While the latest figures show inflation still well above the Fed’s 2% target, it’s the first time this year that the year-over-year figure has declined. And price increases cooled in some service industries, such as hotels, health care and auto repairs, that had previously kept inflation elevated.
The report “was a tiny step in the right direction,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “The fight against inflation is not yet over, but the worsening trend observed in the first quarter of 2024 may have ended……
…..Among individual items in April, grocery prices slipped, providing a break to shoppers. Egg prices, which have been volatile after a bout of avian flu, fell 7.3%. New and used car prices also dropped. By contrast, prices for gas and clothing both jumped.
and this: The Stock Market Is Back in Rally Mode
Investors seized on the latest inflation report as another sign that interest rates could be cut this year, helping push the S&P 500 past its March record.
Wall Street is back in rally mode, with investors seizing on the latest sign that interest rates could begin to fall this year.
The S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent on Wednesday, adding to three straight weeks of gains and climbing above its previous record, set on March 28.
2. Biden is doing GREAT things!
Biden Makes Historic Marijuana Rescheduling Announcement, Applauding ‘Monumental’ Move To Reverse ‘Longstanding Inequities’
President Joe Biden has announced that his administration is officially moving to reschedule marijuana under federal law, applauding the “monumental” action that follows an extensive administrative review that he directed.
The Justice Department will soon post its proposed rule to move cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) in the Federal Register, a senior administration official said on Thursday. There will then be a 60-day public comment period before the rule is potentially finalized.
“This is monumental,” Biden said in a video announcing the rescheduling news. “Today my administration took a major step to reclassify marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III drug. It’s an important move towards reversing longstanding inequities.”
President Joe Biden has announced that his administration is officially moving to reschedule marijuana under federal law, applauding the “monumental” action that follows an extensive administrative review that he directed.
The Justice Department will soon post its proposed rule to move cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) in the Federal Register, a senior administration official said on Thursday. There will then be a 60-day public comment period before the rule is potentially finalized.
“This is monumental,” Biden said in a video announcing the rescheduling news. “Today my administration took a major step to reclassify marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III drug. It’s an important move towards reversing longstanding inequities.”
“Today’s announcement builds on the work we’ve already done to pardon a record number of federal offenses for simple possession of marijuana,” he said. “It adds to the action we’ve taken to lift barriers to housing, employment, small business loans, and so more for tens of thousands of Americans.”
“Look folks no one should be in jail for merely using or possessing marijuana. Period,” the president said, echoing a point he’s made repeatedly in recent months. “Far too many lives have been upended because of a failed approach to marijuana and I’m committed to righting those wrongs. You have my word on it.”
Biden-Harris Administration Kicks Off Infrastructure Week by Highlighting Historic Results Spurred by President Biden’s Investing in America Agenda
When President Biden signed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in November 2021, he committed to delivering once-in-a-generation investments to rebuild America’s infrastructure and competitiveness. Today, his Administration is cutting ribbons and breaking ground on projects across the country to rebuild our roads and bridges, deliver clean and safe water, tackle legacy pollution, expand access to high-speed internet, and build a clean energy economy for all Americans. While “Infrastructure Week” became an empty punchline during the prior Administration, President Biden is delivering an “Infrastructure Decade” that will benefit communities for generations to come. As this year’s Infrastructure Week kicks off, the Administration celebrates the historic progress of President Biden’s Investing in America agenda, which continues to unlock economic opportunity, create good-paying jobs, boost domestic manufacturing, strengthen supply chains, and grow the economy from the middle out and the bottom up.
To date, the Administration has announced nearly $454 billion in Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding, including over 56,000 specific projects and awards, across over 4,500 communities in all 50 states, D.C., the territories, and for Tribes.
Thanks to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law alone, the Administration has already:
- Launched improvements on over 165,000 miles of roads and launched over 9,400 bridge repair projects – making our roadways safer and reconnecting communities across the country;
- Provided funding to deploy nearly 3,000 low-and zero-emission American-made transit buses and funded over 5,000 clean school buses in 600 communities across the country, prioritizing disadvantaged areas;
- Delivered funding for over 450 port and waterway projects to strengthen supply chains, speed up the movement of goods, lower costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions;
- Deployed investments in over 300 airport terminal projects to modernize and expand terminals—over 100 of which are under construction or complete;
- Launched over 4,100 projects to help communities build resilience to threats such as the impacts of climate change and cyber-attacks;
- Financed over 1,400 drinking water and wastewater projects across the country;
- Deployed funding that will help replace up to 1.7 million toxic lead pipes;
- Removed hazardous fuel material from nearly 15 million acres of land through the Infrastructure Law and other sources to protect communities from wildfires;
- Funded nearly 500 projects for water recycling, storage, conservation, desalination, and other purposes to improve drought resilience across the West;
- Provided funding to over 200 states, Tribes, and territories and launched over 60 projects to improve the resilience and reliability of America’s electric grid and deliver cheaper and cleaner electricity—representing the largest single investment in electric transmission and distribution infrastructure in the history of the United States;
- Enabled over 23 million low-income households to access free or discounted high-speed internet service through the Affordable Connectivity Program;
- Funded 12,000 miles of middle-mile high-speed internet infrastructure across 370 counties, promoting the security, resilience, and affordability of our nation’s regional networks;
- Provided funding to more than 280 Tribal governments to connect over 65,000 Tribal households with high-speed internet;
- Implemented new rules to expose internet junk fees, enabling 300 million Americans to shop for home and mobile internet plans that best meet their needs and budget;
- Plugged nearly 8,000 orphaned oil and gas wells to address legacy pollution;
- Allocated funding to 95 previously unfunded Superfund site projects, including the longstanding backlog of projects, to clean up contaminated sites and advance environmental justice; and
- Provided funding to 180 programs that advance President Biden’s Justice40 Initiative, which set a goal that 40% of the overall benefits of certain federal clean energy, climate, and other investments flow to disadvantaged communities.
President Biden’s Investing in America Agenda is Helping American Families Across the Country Save Money
Through President Biden’s historic Investing in America agenda, the Biden-Harris Administration is cutting costs for hardworking American families in every corner of the country. President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, the largest-ever investment in clean energy and climate action, is already helping lower both the upfront cost of installing clean energy technologies and reducing housing costs by lowering monthly energy bills and increasing efficiency after installation. Tax credits that save families up to 30% off home energy technologies like heat pumps, rooftop solar, and energy efficiency improvements like insulation are currently available—and Americans were able to claim those enhanced tax credits for the first time on Tax Day in April:
- Families who install an efficient electric heat pump for heating and cooling can receive a tax credit of up to $2,000 and save an average of $500 per year on energy bills.
- Families who make other energy efficiency improvements can receive tax credits worth up to $500 for doors, $600 for windows, $150 for a home energy audit, and up to 30 percent off the cost of new insulation—a total of up to $1,200 per year in tax credits.
- Families who install rooftop solar, geothermal or battery storage at home can save up to 30 percent of the cost of the installation via a tax credit. For rooftop solar, that can save Americans an average of $7,500 off the cost of installation and nearly $400 per year on their energy bills.
3. There are great signs for a good election
Alsobrooks Makes A Statement
While votes are still be counted Angela Alsobrooks won what was supposed to be a close Democratic Senate primary in Maryland by more than 10 points last night. It was a very impressive showing for this dynamic new Democratic leader, and suggests she will be a far more formidable opponent for former Governor Larry Hogan who won the GOP primary last night. While the conventional wisdom in Washington in DC is that Alsobrooks should prevail this fall, this impressive showing certainly gives us more reasons to be optimistic about holding this vital Senate seat.
Gallego’s Arizona Senate bid gets boost from former McCain, Sinema donors
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego’s Arizona Senate bid is getting a boost from a group of donors who previously backed Republicans like the late Sen. John McCain and the independent incumbent he hopes to replace, Kyrsten Sinema.
The donors will host a fundraiser Saturday for Gallego, according to an invitation obtained by POLITICO. The event signals Gallego is making inroads in two areas GOP opponent Kari Lake is sharply focused on: money and moderates.
Democratic group starts attacking Trump with abortion rights testimonials
A Democratic super PAC will launch a $25 million, three-week ad blitz against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump on Monday, with spots airing in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that use voter testimonials to warn about reduced abortion access in a second Trump term, according to the group’s leaders.
The ads by American Bridge 21st Century target a group of about 2 million persuadable voters, including conservatives who are unhappy with Trump and people who dislike both major party nominees, said Bradley Beychok, the group’s co-founder. The spots — delivered by television, radio, digital and mail through early June — are the first wave of a promised $140 million campaign to reelect President Biden.
“We want to show people that these are real folks in your community that have concerns about Donald Trump and what a second Trump term will be,” Beychok said. “They realize that he is high-octane gasoline that will fan any fire.”
4. Trump Fell Into Biden’s Trap with the Debates!
“I hear you’re free on Wednesdays,” winked Joe Biden yesterday as he threw down the proverbial gauntlet to Donald Trump and demanded two debates outside the fusty and broken confines of the formats favored by the Commission on Presidential Debates.
It was an epic act of trolling, a sucker play, a snare for unwary travelers.
Trump accepted.
Because, of course, he did.
Trump thinks these debates are a reset for him, but they’re absolutely the opposite.
They’re a wake-up call, a reminder, a slap back to reality.
All Trump’s petty, seething rage, his overwhelming ego and malice, the greasy clown visage with his porcine eyes darting and squinting, the sniffing and snuffling, the obvious lies of Candidate Munchausen will hit Americans in the face again.
Voters see that the choice isn’t a return to some halcyon golden era but of four more years of Trump, his voice an endless whine of complaint and self-pity, his jowly countenance full-frame on every screen, his plans for America as dark and rotten as his soul.
I will make a modest prediction today: these debates will feature Joe Biden delivering the Five Point Palm Exploding Heart Technique against Donald Trump. I know it’s popular to hand-wring and panic over Biden’s acuity, but I am firmly convinced it’s Trump who will fight an uphill battle on the debate stage.
what team Biden did yesterday in forcing these debates, and moving them up, was good for our democracy and the American people, and the Biden campaign itself.
This was a bold and smart move, the kind of a move campaigns that win make.
Biden got the debates he wanted. Full stop
At a Wisconsin rally last month, Donald Trump bragged that he would debate President Joe Biden "anytime, anyplace."
"We'll do it anyway you want, Joe," he said.
Biden unexpectedly called his bluff Wednesday with a pugnacious flair that left Trump no choice but to accept.
"Donald Trump lost two debates to me in 2020," Biden said. "Now he’s acting like he wants to debate me again. Well, make my day, pal. I'll even do it twice."
Trump quickly accepted, he had no choice.
The Biden campaign bypassed the bipartisan presidential debate commission and proposed two debates, one in June and the other in September, without an audience and to be moderated by CNN and ABC News. Just two guys in a studio, making their case—a return to the original debates in 1960 between Democrat John F. Kennedy and Republican Richard Nixon.
Regardless of whether third-party spoiler Robert F. Kennedy Jr. meets the criteria to qualify, the Biden campaign has stipulated the debate must be one-on-one between Biden and Trump. The campaign also rejected Trump’s proposed third debate, which would have been moderated by Fox News.
But let's stick with what we currently know: There will be one early debate on June 27 and another on Sept. 10, both with no audience.
Debates are always fraught for candidates, but these terms are a master stroke by the Biden campaign. Many voters still aren't tuned into the contest because they don't like their choices and are putting off the reality of contending with that decision. We also know that Biden is doing better with voters who are more informed and paying attention. So the Biden campaign needs to jolt the electorate awake, and this unprecedented early debate is one of their best avenues to do it.
As Biden pollster Jefrey Pollock said of low information voters, "You have to force your way into their lives ... We have to force them to pay attention to politics."
The sooner voters acknowledge the choice they will have to make in November, the better it is for Biden.
Also, by having a debate in June, Biden will have a chance to till the political landscape before the party conventions in July and August. The September debate, which is also on the early side for a final debate, leaves cushion for the event to fade from voters' memory in case Biden has an off night—which is not uncommon for incumbent presidents. The Biden campaign doesn't want voters heading to the polls thinking about Biden; it wants voters focusing on the peril of a second Trump term and the threat of having him as a "president for life."
If Biden can reinforce that terrifying prospect during the September debate, it could haunt Trump all the way to the polls.
Another win for Team Biden is depriving Trump of an audience. Trump is a performer with a sixth sense for what an audience wants, and giving it to them animates him. A straight-up studio debate prevents Trump from getting any extra juice from playing off the live, reactive audience. He’ll only have his hand gestures, a glass of water, and his grievances to work with.
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All Signs Point to a Trump Debate Meltdown
The news that President Joe Biden and Donald Trump have agreed to two debates—one in just a few weeks’ time, in late June, and another in September—has naturally got the punditverse buzzing.
Some commentators have focused on Biden’s sharp early morning announcement that he would welcome a debate with Trump. It was just the Egg McBiden the president’s fans—like the folks on Morning Joe—needed to start their day, served as it was with a side order of feistiness. Between the “Make my day, pal” opening and the “Let’s pick a date, Donald, I hear you’re free on Wednesdays” (a reference to his current court schedule) it got sharply to the point, did so with a humorous edge, and obligated Trump to respond.
There were, of course, commentators who offered instant speculation about Biden’s motives—like Chris Cillizza, who concluded Biden was doing this because “he knows he’s behind” and because “he knows age/competence issues aren’t going away.”
Of course, Biden actually isn’t behind Trump in the polls, with most showing the race essentially tied—and several including the most recent NYT Ipsos poll showing Biden up by 3. Further, the idea that “age” is an issue for two guys who are essentially the same age, is one that does not stand up to the slightest scrutiny. But never mind all that.
No, after talking to a number of Biden administration officials, it is clear that the primary reason Joe Biden chose to debate Donald Trump is… because he can win.
The contest is so lopsided that even Trump’s pals at the WWE could not sell a ticket to it. (I know, I know. We’ve got to manage expectations. But, do we? Really? Each time Trump debated Biden in 2020 he lost.) And ever since then, as Biden pointed out in his debate announcement, Trump has avoided debating opponents.
So, he’s bad at it and out of practice. Not a good combination.
The Biden team calculus has to be based in part on the fact that it’s Trump who is actually losing his marbles. How else do you explain his recent praise for Hannibal Lecter and his noticeably slurred words during speeches?
Furthermore, in the view of those close to Biden, Trump’s got a serious problem on the issues. He’s on the wrong side of the American public on many of the policy questions most important to them.
Joltin' Joe Biden Just Mopped the Floor with Trump’s 'meticulously coiffed soufflé'
Welp, Donald Trump took the bait.
He once again let his untethered ego take him where he doesn’t want to be. Into a pair of debates with a very smart president……..on CNN! And ABC!!!
Donnie always wants to be the aggressor.
Problem for Trump is, Joe beat him to it.
Now Trump looks weak. Which he is. And stupid. And venal. And did I mention stupid?
And he’s a failure. He “won” in 2016, but he needed an FBI Director, The New York Times, and a foreign country’s help to do it.
Since then (like R-Nikki Haley says), he’s done nothing but lose. Lost congress in 2018. Lost the white house. Even lost the coup.
Then he decimated the R-congress “Red-Wave” in 2022.
He lost the TrumpOrg case, even making a complete ass of himself on the stand.
Then he lost to E. Jean Carroll. Twice.
Now, he’s an adjudicated rapist.
He owes over $600,000,000, with another $100,000,000 bill coming from the IRS.
And now he owns an entire political party. Owns the RNC. R-Congressers are coming to his criminal trial, and fawning over him…...dressed alike, and reading from his personally written script.
But he will still run his party completely and utterly into the ground.
Like a goddamned drunk Kamikazi.
It’s what he does best.
LOSE.
5. Trump was in a cold stinky courtroom all week
🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
That is all I have to say about that!
On the lighter side
What can you do to save democracy
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