While most of us South Carolinians are sizzling in the summer heat, our legislative races are just beginning to fire up. South Carolina is fed up with a do-nothing legislature, which has caused many insurgent primary challengers in various House and Senate races to gain some momentum. In this entry, I will examine the state of the most competitive races 2 weeks out from the primary on June 14th, and whether South Carolinians are really going to take a scorched-earth approach towards many apathetic legislators.
Since South Carolina held its presidential primaries separate from state primaries, election officials are predicting a low turnout in the single digit range, which can cause some unpredictability and has these longtime incumbents nervous. Thus, campaigns are trying to turn out as many of their base voters as they can.
To understand the dynamics of these races, one must first understand the dynamics of the state government. The Senate and House Republican caucuses are divided into three categories. Longtime establishment Republicans who rarely support Governor Nikki Haley’s agenda. Haley loyalists, who hail from establishment and Tea Party wings alike, and the far-right obstructionists, who are loyal to themselves and do nothing meaningful. As for the Democrats, they are the minority but they are an important voting bloc when it comes to which side of the Republicans can get bills passed, usually the establishment. Haley has pledged to campaign against lawmakers who have not supported her agenda.
While most incumbents are either unopposed or are expected to cruise to re-election, there are a few instances of intra-party challenges that could rattle Columbia.
First, the Senate, which is showcasing far more intriguing races than the House and really highlight party divide.
Senate District 2: GOP Senator Larry Martin has occupied this Pickens County-area seat since 1996 and has never faced much primary opposition. Martin is a poster child for the South Carolina Republican establishment. He has angered Tea Party conservatives after voting for numerous legislation that has been co-sponsored by Senate Democrats, including voting to remove the Confederate Flag last summer. After a weak primary win in 2012 against former State Rep. Rex Rice, conservatives are smelling blood. Rice is back for a rematch against Martin. Army veteran Don Joslyn and rodeo owner Allan Quinn are also in the mix, but there presence and lack of funds only leads me to believe a runoff could be forced between Martin and Rice. I predict a Martin v. Rice runoff, with the winner being whomever turns out their key voters. I'm venturing to guess Martin.
Senate District 3: GOP Senator Kevin Bryant has represented this Anderson County-area seat with ease since 2004. This year, Bryant faces his first top-tier challenger in years in Anderson County United Way head and former Pendleton mayor Carol Burdette. Burdette has outraised Bryant in fundraising, but Bryant has more cash on hand. Burdette has campaigned for term limits for state legislators, and has criticized Bryant for beating around the bush on fixing the state’s crumbling infrastructure. Burdette also has a built-in voter base in Pendleton, the largest town in this district, which could put her over the edge in a low-turnout election. There are no other candidates in this race, so there won’t be a runoff. For now, I predict a narrow Bryant win.
Senate District 4: GOP Senator Mike Gambrell just won the special election for this Anderson County-area seat a few weeks ago, but he already faces a rematch against his previous opponent, Williamston town councilman and former police officer Rockey Burgess. Gambrell defeated Burgess 57-42 in the previous runoff, and since there are no other candidates to keep Gambrell from getting 50%, there will be no runoff this time around. Burgess has already had two chances to obtain a majority in this seat, and he has failed to do so, therefore I predict a modest win by Gambrell who is still new to the voters in this district but seems to be able to turn his base out.
Senate District 5: GOP Senator Tom Corbin has served since 2012 and has given voters plenty of reasons not to vote for him. You may remember Corbin as being the guy who referred to women as a “lesser cut of meat”, which garnered national attention from media and backlash from his fellow Senate colleagues. Corbin faces attorney John B. White Jr., son of the late John B. White Sr., who owned the famous Beacon Drive-In housed in Spartanburg. White also served on the financial committees of George H. W. Bush and John McCain for their presidential bids. White has largely self-funded his campaign, which has outpaced Corbin. White, campaigning as a political outsider, is criticizing Corbin for missing many important committee hearings and votes, along with his degrading remarks towards women. As both candidates tend to agree on most issues, I believe this race will largely come down to geography. The district encompasses most of northern Greenville and Spartanburg counties. Corbin is relying on larger turnout in his home of Greenville while White is counting on the voters in his turf of Spartanburg. Being as this is my home district, I am hoping for a White win here as he would be an upgrade to the absent Corbin, but this race is truly a tossup.
Senate District 6: GOP Senator Mike Fair has served this Greenville County-area seat since 1995 and has made a name for himself in Columbia as being only concerned with social issues and ignoring the state’s financial woes. Fair has largely focused on passing legislation involving teaching creationism in schools, abstinence-only sex education, and conversion therapy for LGBT individuals. Pragmatic Republicans in this area are looking for an upgrade, and they believe their guy is Solicitor William Timmons. Timmons is campaigning as the more productive candidate who will focus on creating jobs in the area. He is also another one of the many challengers calling for term limits. Former state Highway Commissioner Johnny Edwards is also in the mix, but he is expected to be a non-factor, but could take enough votes from the other two to force this race into a runoff, which will only benefit Timmons in this scenario. I predict a Fair v. Timmons runoff, with hopefully what will be a Timmons victory.
Senate District 7: Democratic Senator Karl Allen has been a rising star in the state party since he was elected to this Greenville County-area seat in 2012, but longtime Greenville City Councilor Lillian Brock Flemming is hoping to capitalize on what is expected to be low Democratic voter turnout. Allen defeated Flemming in the Democratic primary for this open seat in 2012 just 55-45, so if Flemming can turn out enough of her base she has the potential to upset Allen. I am skeptical of her chances as she has barely raised any money and seems to be running a passive campaign. Therefore, I predict a modest win here for Allen.
Senate District 12: The infamous GOP Senator Lee Bright, who is known for some out-there policy positions, is facing the race of his life in this Spartanburg County-area district. Bright has supported citizens obtaining guns without permits, the display of the Confederate Flag, and most recently supported a bill that would allow discrimination towards transgender individuals when using a public restroom. Bright has also been prone to introduce do-nothing legislation at his constituents' expense. Because of this, he faces three credible Republican primary challengers in former State Rep. Scott Talley, businessman David McCraw, and Duncan mayor Lisa Scott, with a runoff being likely. All three are running as pragmatic conservatives who wish to make real change for the district, and any of the three would be an upgrade to Bright. Talley has the most cash on hand and actually lost the runoff to Bright here in 2008, so he is hoping he can score a comeback bid. McCraw is using his business background to campaign as a political outsider, while Scott is relying on the constituency she represents to give her the number two spot for the runoff. McCraw and Scott lack the sufficient funds needed to take down Bright, so Talley is the best bet for Republicans here. I predict a Bright v. Talley runoff with hopefully a Talley victory.
Senate District 15: GOP Senator Wes Hayes has represented this York County-area seat with ease since 1992. He received a surprising challenge from York County GOP Chair Wes Climer, who has the support of Governor Nikki Haley. Climer is campaigning as a fresh face against the 25-year incumbent. Climer supports term limits and ethics reform, along with fixing the roads. Climer is portraying Hayes as a creature of the Republican establishment, and promises to bring about real change if elected. Unfortunately for Climer, no other candidates filed which means no runoff, and I do not believe he can upend the longtime incumbent on his own accord. I predict a narrow Hayes win.
Senate District 17: Democratic Senator Creighton Coleman has represented this ancestrally Democratic seat, which includes Fairfield County, Chester County and part of York County, since 2008. Coleman has been criticized for not spending enough time in the district, and for casting some conservative votes in the legislature despite representing a reliably Democratic district. He faces two challengers, educator Mike Fanning and perennial candidate Morgan Reeves. Of these two, only Fanning is serious. Fanning has criticized Coleman and the legislature for failing to fix the roads and for allocating dollars elsewhere that needed to be dedicated to the rural schools in the district. Fanning seems to be running an aggressive grassroots campaign against Coleman, and in a low-turnout election anything can happen. For now, I predict a narrow Coleman victory. I don’t believe Reeves will gain many votes to cause a runoff between the other two.
Senate District 19: Democratic Senator John Scott has represented this Richland County-area seat since 2008. Scott hasn’t made many waves in the legislature, and is regarded as somewhat of a backbencher when it comes to passing bills. This has gained him a primary challenge from Richland County Council Chair Torrey Rush. Rush claims the legislature needs new voices with different solutions to issues, like fixing the roads, and he doesn’t believe Scott has been the fighter the area needs. However, the County Council Rush presides over has been under a microscope by the Department of Revenue looking into the county’s penny tax program and a former councilor getting arrested for failing to pay taxes and a felony DUI. Because of this, and with Rush not seeming to be running an aggressive campaign, I have to believe Scott will win modestly.
Senate District 31: Longtime GOP Senator Hugh Leatherman, who has represented this Florence County-area seat for almost 40 years, is facing his toughest opponent in decades. Florence County GOP Chair Richard Skipper is running here, and has the support of Governor Nikki Haley. Leatherman has been a thorn in Haley’s side as she has tried to pass her agenda in the legislature, and the two have exchanged unfriendly remarks towards each other in interviews and social media. For his part, Leatherman has a crazy $2 million dollars at his disposal, while Skipper is getting an assist from Haley’s Super PAC which has almost $500,000 in the bank. This will likely be the most expensive primary race here, even though turnout will likely be abysmal. A third candidate, Florence County Treasurer Dean Fowler, is non-serious but could take enough votes away from the other two so that a runoff is forced. For now, I predict a Leatherman v. Skipper runoff with Leatherman prevailing due to pure name recognition and entrenchment.
Senate District 33: GOP Senator Luke Rankin has represented this Horry County-area seat since 1992. Rankin has been another establishment Republican reluctant to support Nikki Haley’s agenda, so she has endorsed his challenger, financial planner Scott Pyle. Pyle is campaigning on term limits, ethics reform, and fixing roads, which is a big issue in this district that houses Myrtle Beach and is a destination for vacationers both in and out of the state. Pyle has been running an aggressive campaign and has had financial assistance from Haley, but since there are no other candidates to force a runoff, it makes his job much more difficult to take down the longtime incumbent. I predict Rankin wins narrowly, but the low-turnout could cause Pyle to pull off an upset here.
Senate District 34: This seat is being vacated by GOP Senator Ray Cleary, but the intra-party war is raging on. Four Republicans are vying for this open Georgetown County-area coastal seat. State Rep. Stephen Goldfinch has served in the House since 2012, and has a built-in voter base which leads me to believe he is the frontrunner. Goldfinch’s former law partner, attorney Reese Boyd is the other candidate I predict will take the number 2 spot. Boyd has been endorsed by Nikki Haley and has her financial support, while Goldfinch is getting help from the political establishment in the Senate. Two other candidates, construction company owner Joe Ford and businessman Dick Withington are non-factors but will cause a runoff between Goldfinch and Boyd since no one is likely to get 50%. I predict a Goldfinch win in the runoff due to his voter base.
Senate District 41: This Charleston County-area seat is being vacated by GOP Senator Paul Thurmond, and 5 Republicans are running to succeed him. The candidates are prosecutor Culver Kidd, real estate broker and former Charleston City Council member Tim Mallard, Charleston County Councilman Joe Qualey, and attorneys Roy Maybank and Sandy Senn. No one is likely to gain 50% here. Kidd is a young rising star who is campaigning on repeated themes of ethics reform and repairing infrastructure, but he is also one of the few candidates calling for criminal justice reform for first-time offenders. I believe he will gain one of the top two spots with the other going to Mallard, who seems to have lots of connections and money from his previous service on the city council. It is a pure tossup from who will win there, but if I had to guess I would predict a Kidd victory.
The state House is surprisingly more sleepy, but there are a few races worth watching.
House District 8: GOP Rep. Jonathon Hill defeated former Rep. Don Bowen in this Anderson County-area seat back in 2014 in a true Tea Party v. Establishment head to head battle. Bowen is back for a rematch to reclaim his old seat he had held since 2006. Hill defeated Bowen 57-42, so there is no reason to think Hill is in any danger now that he is the incumbent. The only hope for Bowen is that the third non-serious candidate, Albert Howard, can peel enough votes away from Hill to force a runoff and Bowen can then turnout his base. But the likelihood of that happening is very low, so I predict Hill will win comfortably.
House District 22: GOP Rep. Wendy Nanney has represented this Greenville County-area seat since 2008. She faces an intra-party challenge from attorney Jason Elliott, who is a former district director for former U.S. Senator Jim DeMint. Elliott has been running an aggressive campaign against Nanney, accusing her of missing almost 50% of legislative votes and for voting against removal of the Confederate Flag. I give Nanney the edge here due to her connections to Republicans in this district after being a former party county head, but Elliott can’t be counted out. There will be no runoff in this race.
House District 37: GOP Rep. Donna Hicks has represented this Spartanburg County-area seat since 2012. Hicks has suffered from some messy headlines after her nasty public divorce, and even beat back a primary challenge from her stepdaughter in 2014. This year she faces 21 year old insurance agent Steven Long, who is campaigning as an alternative to Hicks who has been an embarrassment to the district and hasn’t brought much change to Columbia. I give Hicks the edge here because Long’s campaign lacks visibility, but she is definitely someone who could go down eventually.
House District 40: Longtime Democratic Rep. Walt McLeod is vacating this Newberry County-area seat, which will be competitive in the general. Both sides have primaries. The Democrats vying to hold this seat are former Newberry College student body president Carlton Kinard and farmer Craig Kesler. Neither candidate has had much visibility, but if I had to guess I would suggest Kesler probably fits this district’s constituency best. Republicans are running fire marshal David Koon and Newberry Battery Outlet owner Rick Martin. Martin appears to be the frontrunner as Koon has barely campaigned.
House District 50: Longtime Democratic Rep. Grady Brown is vacating this Sumter and Lee County-area seat after 16 terms. 5 Democrats are running to succeed Brown. They include former Bishopville mayor Tom Drayton, pastor Demione Kinney, attorney Will Wheeler, evangelist Crystal Cunningham, 2014 candidate Brian Alston, and businessman Keith Johnson. A runoff is likely, but this crowded field has lacked a frontrunner. The race could come down to racial lines, with Wheeler securing enough of the white vote to advance to the runoff, while it is still unknown which of the other African American candidates will advance. Alston got 42% against Brown in 2014, so maybe he will be able to consolidate that support again. I predict Wheeler will win the runoff no matter who he faces.
House District 57: Democratic Rep. Wayne George is vacating this Marion County-area seat after only two terms. Democrats have a three-way primary that includes business consultant Lucas Atkinson, who is a former aide to Senator Kent Williams, and attorneys Lee Walter Jenkins and Ryan Waller. Being as this district has a large African American population and Jenkins is the only black candidate, I see Jenkins advancing to the runoff, with Waller probably taking the 2nd spot. I predict Jenkins wins the runoff fairly easily.
House District 69: GOP Rep. Rick Quinn has represented this Lexington County-area seat since 2010. Quinn has been the subject of an ethics probe at the state house involving SLED, but no action has been taken by SLED currently. Quinn faces a challenge from attorney and Lexington Medical Center head Ryan Holt. Whether or not these bad headlines have hurt Quinn at home remains to be seen, but he and his father are something of an institution in South Carolina politics with close ties to the state Attorney General, so he won’t go down that easy. I predict a modest Quinn win.
House District 79: Democratic Rep. Mia McLeod is vacating this Richland County-area seat to run for State Senate. Three Democrats are running to succeed her, which include pastor Ivory Thigpen, Richland school board member Monica Elkins, and attorney Vannie Williams. Williams seems to be a non-factor, so the race will come down to Elkins and Thigpen. I predict a Thigpen win as he seems to have the most visibility and support.
House District 89: GOP Rep. Kenny Bingham is vacating this Lexington County-area seat. Four Republicans are running to succeed him. They are prosecutor and veteran Micah Caskey, former Lexington County Councilmen Bill Banning and Billy Oswald, and West Columbia City Councilman Tem Miles. I predict Caskey as the frontrunner in this primary, which will likely head to a runoff. I believe Banning will take the 2nd place spot given his name recognition from representing the area for so long on the county council. I believe Caskey will clinch the nod in the runoff.
House District 94: The Dorchester County-area seat is being vacated by GOP Rep. Jenny Horne, who is challenging Mark Sanford in Congress. Two Republicans are duking it out here, Dorchester County Councilor Carroll Duncan and businesswoman Katie Arrington. Arrington is aggressively campaigning as a political outsider who will fix Columbia, whereas Duncan has a lot of establishment support. For now, I predict Duncan will emerge victorious as she seems to have a voter base and support.
House District 110: GOP Rep. Chip Limehouse is vacating this Charleston County-area seat after narrowly surviving a primary challenge in 2014. Five Republicans are running to succeed him, which include real estate developer William Cogswell, Charleston tourism official Will Freeman, 2014 candidate Russell Guerard, attorney Trey Harrell, who is the son of scandal-tarred former state house Speaker Bobby Harrell, and attorney Eddie Phipps. It seems like the big players here are Guerard, Harrell, and Phipps. This race is likely to go to a runoff, and I predict Guerard and Phipps to advance. The Harrell family scandals are too fresh on voters’ minds. Guerard has support from his previous run while Phipps is extremely visible. I think Guerard probably edges Phipps in the runoff.
House District 121: Democratic Rep. Kenneth Hodges is vacating this Beaufort and Colleton County-area seat. The two Democrats running to succeed Hodges are Beaufort County school board member Michael Rivers and attorney Grahame Holmes. Both candidates don't seem to have high visibility, so it could go either way, but if I had to pick one I would pick Rivers as he has a voter base.
House District 122: Democratic Rep. Bill Bowers has represented this Jasper and Hampton County-area seat since 1996. Bowers hasn’t been a friend to Democrats lately as he has taken some conservative votes and has considered switching parties. As a result, he faces a challenge from three Democrats in the primary. Former State Rep. Curtis Brantley, who challenged Bowers in 2012 and 2014 and got 42% of the vote, Hampton County Council Chairman Shedron Williams, and tour guide John Polk. It seems that with enough anti-Bowers vote the race will advance to a Bowers and Brantley runoff yet again. Brantley has already failed twice to unseat Bowers and there is no reason to believe history won’t repeat itself.
