My next state in the Wyoming Rule series is Indiana. Republicans currently own the trifecta in this state, and I drew the districts assuming this scenario.
My overall philosophy was as follows:
1) Create Dem vote sinks in Gary and Indianapolis.
2) Due to Obama's overperformance in Indiana in 2008, any district that is 53% McCain is about 60% Bush and thus pretty safe Republican. Note: Obama's overperformance here causes some of the CPVIs to seem "high". A 52% McCain district in IN is usually around R+9 to R+10, while other 52% McCain districts like FL-09, FL-13, or WA-05 are in the R+6 ro R+7 range. Then in states where McCain overperformed, like Arizona, 52% McCain AZ-08 is only R+4.
3) Split South Bend in half and create two Republican leaning districts.
4) Split up the districts such that there is a single Democratic leaning city that gets overwhelmed by the surrounding Republican areas (ie, you won't see two cities like Terre Haute and Evansville in the same district).
Previous diaries:
FL, ID, NM, NC, NY, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA
Current seat count: 67D-110R
IN-01 Peter Visclosky (D-Merrillville)
Rep. Visclosky gets a very safe district in the northwestern part of the state. It takes in most of the Democratic areas here, including Gary, Merrillville, Portage, Michigan City, and La Porte.
71% Obama 29% McCain
D+17
IN-02 Open
This is Joe Donnelly's old district. It now covers much of the rural parts of northwestern Indiana and it splits South Bend with IN-03. 2010 Republican candidate Jackie Walorski lives here and would probably win this district. It is about 7 points more Republican than before.
47% Obama 52% McCain
R+9
IN-03 Marlin Stutzman (R-Howe)
Rep. Stutzman's district is radically different. It no longer contains Fort Wayne, but does contain Elkhart and part of South Bend. It is a few points less Republican, but he still should be able to hold it.
47% Obama 52% McCain
R+10
IN-04 Open
This district covers much of the same territory as the current IN-04, but incumbent Todd Rokita does not live here, so it is an open district. Lafayette is the big city here, with many other small cities: Crawfordsville, Logansport, Wabash, and part of Kokomo. A Republican should do well here.
46% Obama 54% McCain
R+12
IN-05 Dan Burton (R-Indianapolis)
Rep. Burton's new district is pretty similar to what it is now, but is solely north of Indianapolis. It includes the northern Indianapolis suburbs, Anderson, and parts of Marion and Kokomo. It becomes a few points more Democratic.
44% Obama 56% McCain
R+14
IN-06 Open
This district covers much of the area of Mike Pence's current IN-06. But this is an open race for two reasons: he is running for governor and his home in Columbus is in my new 10th district. The district is in the eastern part of the state and includes Muncie and the eastern Indianapolis suburbs.
46% Obama 53% McCain
R+10
IN-07 Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis)
Due to smaller district sizes, Rep. Carson's Indianapolis district gets more compact and no longer has to reach into the redder parts of Marion County. As a result, it gets a few points more Democratic.
77% Obama 23% McCain
D+20
IN-08 Larry Bucshon (R-Newburgh)
My new IN-08 fits neatly into the southwest corner of the state. It contains the major city of Evansville, but Terre Haute is removed from the district, making it safer for Rep. Bucshon.
46% Obama 53% McCain
R+10
IN-09 Todd Young (R-Bloomington)
Rep. Young's district is no longer the southeastern part of the state. It contains the Democratic bastion of Bloomington along with very red Morgan, Johnson, and Shelby counties. He should be safe here for a while.
46% Obama 53% McCain
R+9
And now for the new districts:
IN-10 Open
IN-10 is now the southeastern part of the state. The major city areas here are Columbus and the Louisville suburbs of Clarksville and New Albany. This is a very safe Republican district.
43% Obama 56% McCain
R+12
IN-11 Todd Rokita (R-Clermont)
Rep. Rokita is in this new district which contains western Indianapolis suburbs and Terre Haute. It is a little less Republican than his old district, but he should be fine here.
46% Obama 53% McCain
R+10
IN-12 Open
Fort Wayne is the anchor for this new district in the eastern part of the state. It is safe Republican.
45% Obama 54% McCain
R+12
It's pretty safe to say that going to the Wyoming Rule in Indiana while under Republican control would be devastating to Democrats. This map draws 10 fairly safe Republican districts to only 2 Democratic districts. There are only 2 districts which are less than 52% McCain - both of the Democratic vote sinks (with Indiana's current 9-seat map, there are 5 districts which are less than 52% McCain). Going to the Wyoming Rule lets Republicans "spread the wealth".