Tennessee specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on 67 delegate allocation. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Tennessee has few congressional districts with odd number of delegates thereby providing an opportunity for an advantage break. Thus advantages can be accrued fast.
Basic Data: Tennessee has 67 delegates available. There are 9 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations, there are 11different delegate allocation units. The delegates are in the usual 4,5,6,7 sets. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 4 from CD1 CD2 CD4 CD6 ::: 5 from CD3 CD7 CD8 ::: 6 from CD5 ::: 7 from CD9. Additional 9 PLEOs and 14 At-large delegates are allocated based on state-wide results.
Tennessee operates an open primary. Democratic preference ballot is available to all who request. Presidential preference primary is on 1st March 2016.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. I have grouped the Congressional districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them. The thresholds %s are relative to each other. For example, this means that a vote results of 49-48-2 is effectively, 50.5 — 49.5. This is derived from 49/(49+48) vs 48/(49+48).
delegates acquired
out of available
|
4 del
cd1 cd2 cd4 cd6
|
5 del
cd3 cd7 cd8
|
6 del
cd5
|
7 del
cd9
|
Delegate Allocation Threshhold/Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
21.4 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
35.7 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.3 |
50 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
6 del |
|
|
85 |
78.6 |
For 4 Delegates at CD1 CD2 CD4 CD6: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. To gain a definitive advantage a candidate needs to cross 62.5% trigger resulting in a delegate split of 3-1. Most likely splits are (2-2)
For 5 Delegates at CD3 CD7 CD8: First delegate acquird at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems a bit too much of a demand on any campaign. These 3 districts becomes very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour.
For 6 Delegates at CD5: First two delegates at 15%and 25% respectively are fairly cheap. Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level. Even in candidates home states and districts we have not yet seen this kind of support. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes.
For 7 Delegates at CD9: First two delegates are fairly cheap at 15% and 21.4%. Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. It seems quite high. Either candidates breaking through 64.3% support and achieve 5-2 split seems very distant.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 9 PLEOs and 14 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
For 9 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): (See table below.) First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 16.7%, third at 27.8% and fourth at 38.9%. Each delegate needs roughly 11% shift in support. The tipping point is again at 50% for the advantageous break with 5-4 split. Additional delegates acquired at 61.2% and 72.3%. Table shows triggers for PLEOs. At-large delegates corresponding those triggers are also listed. There is a separate table further down focused on at-large delegate triggers.
Vote Share% |
15 |
16.7 |
27.8 |
38.9 |
50 |
61.2 |
72.3 |
83.4 |
85 |
State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share - PLEOs
PLEOs (9) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Corresponding
At-Large Del(14)
|
2 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
For 14 Statewide (at-large) delegates: (See table below). Because of a small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly chunky. Some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 7.1% votes translates to 1 delegate. Reaching 15% threshold gives a starting point of 2 delegates. Third delegate is cheap at 17.9%. Subsequently every 7.1% gives an extra delegate. Between 46.5%-53.6% delegates split even (7-7). A small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. Crossing 53.6% results in (9-7) split. In the table below, only some interesting trigger range is listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison.
Vote Share% |
15 |
17.9 |
25 |
32.2 |
39.3 |
46.5 |
53.6 |
60.8 |
67.9 |
State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share - At-Large
At-Large Del (14) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Corresponding
PLEO Del(9)
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Next bit is my personal opinion only: Most of the contest is likely to be getting statewide share around 60% region for those extra triggers all over that 50-60% section. I suspect every odd delegate break will go on Clinton favour. with mostly breaking at 2-2, 3-2, 4-2, 4-3 and 14-9. Overall delegates splitting 39-28.
Previously covered states: Arkansas and Alabama and South-Carolina and Virginia and Massachusetts and New-Hampshire and Vermont and Georgia and Oklahoma
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
Meanwhile for a break or an inspiration I suggest President Jimmy Carters Inauguration speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PBAL5LmnsU
of course if you prefer more politics then by our own Angela Marx http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/2/6/1480779/-Help-Progressives-Win-Roundup-Edition-AL-CA-FL-IA-MD-MI-NC-NJ-NH-NY-OK-PA-TX-WA