Texas specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on humoungounggoungougngous 222 delegate allocation. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Texas has many allocation districts with odd number of delegates thereby providing an opportunity for an advantage break.
Basic Data: Texas has 222 delegates available. This being Texas and their unique way of doing things, the delegate allocation is based on Texas State Senate district. Unlike previous years there is no Texas-Two-Step either.
There are 31 Senatorial Districts (SD). So including state-wide allocations, there are 32 different delegate allocation units. The delegates are in the usual 3,4,5,6, sets with a couple of unusual 2, 8 and 10. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 2 from SD28 SD31 ::: 3 from SD1 SD3 SD24 SD30 ::: 4 from SD2 SD4 SD6 SD7 SD9 SD11 SD12 SD18 SD22 SD27 SD29 ::: 5 from SD5 SD8 SD16 SD17 SD19 SD20 SD 21 ::: 6 from SD10 SD15 SD25 SD26 ::: 8 from SD13 SD23 ::: 10 from SD14. Additional 29 PLEOs and 48 at-large delegates are allocated based on state-wide results.
Primary Election Information: Presidential preference primary is on 1st March 2016. Early voting period 16feb — 26feb.
Voter ID Laws: One of the strict voter ID laws in place. Voter ID laws in effect, so photo ID is required to vote.
Here is a list of the acceptable forms of photo ID:
- Texas driver license issued by the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS)
- Texas Election Identification Certificate issued by DPS
- Texas personal identification card issued by DPS
- Texas license to carry a handgun issued by DPS
- United States military identification card containing the person’s photograph
- United States citizenship certificate containing the person’s photograph
- United States passport
With the exception of the U.S. citizenship certificate, the identification must be current or have expired no more than 60 days before being presented for voter qualification at the polling place.
Exceptions To Photo ID: If a voter does not have a permanent disability exemption (addressed below) indicated on his or her voter registration certificate AND the voter does not have any of the photo identifications indicated above at the time of voting, the voter may cast a provisional ballot at the polls. However, in order to have the provisional ballot counted, the voter will be required to visit the voter registrar’s office within six calendar days of the date of the election to either present one of the above forms of photo ID OR submit one of the temporary affidavits addressed below (e.g., religious objection or natural disaster) in the presence of the county voter registrar while attesting to the fact that he or she does not have any of the required photo IDs.
If in doubt turn up and vote. You can still vote and deal with it later.
more information here http://www.votetexas.gov/register-to-vote/need-id/
{On a personal level, I suspect that this has an extremely adverse effect of Democratic Party voter turn out and has been implemented for that purpose. Early ballot casting numbers maybe indicative of this issue}
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. I have grouped the Congressional Districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them
I have grouped the Districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them. The thresholds %s are relative to each other. For example, this means that a vote results of 49-48-2 is effectively, 50.5 — 49.5. This is derived from 49/(49+48) vs 48/(49+48)
delegates
acquired
|
2 del
sd28 sd31
|
3 del
sd1 sd3
sd24 sd30
|
4 del
|
5 del
sd8 sd16
sd17 sd19
sd20 sd21
|
6 del
sd10 sd15
sd25 sd26
|
8 del
sd13 sd23
|
10 del
sd14
|
Delegate Allocation Threshholds/Triggers
1 del |
25 |
16.7 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
75 |
50 |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
18.8 |
15 |
3 del |
|
83.3 |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
31.3 |
25 |
4 del |
|
|
85 |
70 |
58.3 |
43.8 |
35 |
5 del |
|
|
|
85 |
75 |
56.3 |
45 |
6 del |
|
|
|
|
85 |
68.8 |
55 |
7 del |
|
|
|
|
|
81.3 |
65 |
8 del |
|
|
|
|
|
85 |
75 |
9 del |
|
|
|
|
|
|
85 |
For 2 Delegates at SD28 SD31: The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 25% votes. Second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 75% votes. These are most likely to break (1-1)
For 3 Delegates at SD1 SD3 SD24 SD30: The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. Unless the poll numbers are literally hovering around 50% marker, this place is unlikely to see much action. These will break 2-1 giving one candidate advantage.
For 4 Delegates at SD2 SD4 SD6 SD7 SD9 SD11 SD12 SD18 SD22 SD27 SD29: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. So again the sheer level of change in support levels required to flip districts it indicates not much activity here. Without a spectacular success this is just going to play at 2-2
For 5 Delegates at SD5 SD8 SD16 SD17 SD19 SD20 SD21: First delegate at 15% and second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. These districts becomes very crucial as they break even with small % advantage, a whole delegate is available. Most likely to be fought over tooth and nail to get that 3-2 split in favour. 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems a bit too much of a demand on any campaign. All these 7 districts will definitely add to the delegate advantage to whoever achieves 3-2 favourable split.
For 6 Delegates at SD10 SD15 SD25 SD26: First two delegates acquired at 15% and 25%. Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort of 58.3% would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level. Even in candidates home states and districts we have not yet seen this kind of support.
For 8 Delegates at SD13 SD23: First two delegates achieved cheaply at 15% and 18.3%. Third at 31.3%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%.
For 10 Delegates at SD14: First two delegates achieved cheaply at 15%. Subsequently every extra 10% gives an additional delegates. Any vote share between 45% and just under 55% will result in a 5-5 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 55% results in two delegate advantage 6-4. The next trigger at 65% for 7-3 split. Unless there is some major event 75% is quite a huge barrier for 8-2 split. 85% will give all 10 delegates.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 22 At-Large delegates and 13 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, the odd number of PLEO allocations would reward state-wide winner with overall at least one delegate advantages.
For 29 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): (See table below) Once again due to large number of delegates in this category support level movements are more rewarding. Roughly 3.4% votes translate to 1 delegate. Obtaining 15% viability threshold awards 4 delegates. Fifth delegate available at 15.6%. Each subsequent 3.4% awards an extra delegate. Advantageous break occurs at 50% awarding (15-14) split. The table below shows the PLEO specific triggers points in interesting range. The at large delegates listed here are corresponding numbers at PLEO percentages. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote Share% |
15 |
15.6 |
32.8 |
36.3 |
39.7 |
43.2 |
46.5 |
50 |
53.5 |
56.9 |
60.4 |
63.8 |
67.3 |
70.7 |
Delegate Allocation Triggers - PLEOs
PLEOs (29) |
4 |
5 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
Corresponding
At-Large(48)
|
7 |
7 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
31 |
32 |
34 |
36 |
For 48 Delegates State-wide: (See table below) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Roughly 2.2% votes translates to 1 delegate. So overall statewide share of votes will reward quite a lot of delegates. Crossing 15% viability awards 7 delegates, Eighth delegate very cheap at 15.7%. Subsequently each 2.2% gives an extra delegate. This is where a bulk of delegate advantage will be accumulated. Between 49% and 51.1% an even split of (24-24) occurs. Depending on the margin of vote% the overall delegate advantage has the potential to give a long term advantage over rest of the primary season.
Vote Share% |
15 |
15.6 |
30.3 |
40.7 |
42.8 |
44.8 |
46.9 |
49 |
51.1 |
53.2 |
55.3 |
57.3 |
59.4 |
61.5 |
Delegate Allocation Triggers - At-Large
At-Large (48) |
7 |
8 |
15 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
Corresponding
PLEO (29)
|
4 |
5 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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Taking into account 6, 8 and 10 delegate district triggers combined with statewide trigger, quite a few of them fall in 50-60% area. Any advantage would definitely show up with a large difference. As mentioned before there is no longer the old “Texas Two-Step”, so vote share will reflect the actual delegates awarded.
Next bit is my personal opinion only: Most of the contest is likely to be getting statewide share around 60% region for those extra triggers all over that 50-65% section. Taking into account the large base of Clinton support in Texas, Clinton is likely to perform well except maybe in Austin. With popular Castro brothers actively campaigning for Clinton a comfortable margin would be expected. However I am being cautious and only assuming overall roughly around 60% vote. I suspect every odd delegate break will go on Clinton favour. with mostly breaking at 2-1, 2-2, 3-2, 4-2, 6-2 and 6-4. With statewide around 45-32. Overall total delegates splitting 129-93. I would not be surprised if the vote% breaks through 65%-70% regions. In the senate district 13 and 23 with 8 delegates, 6-2 split at 68.8%.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Previously covered states: Arkansas and Alabama and South-Carolina and Virginia and Massachusetts and New-Hampshire and Vermont and Georgia and Oklahoma and Tennessee
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
Meanwhile, a shout out to our http://www.dailykos.com/user/guavaboy whoose posts about Nepal are much appreciated