John McCain (left) answers the question, "How many Americans would benefit from having a Republican president?"
Previous states, in publishing order: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Kansas, West Virginia, Mississippi, Iowa, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Kentucky, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee
Depending on how SCOTUS rules, Arizona may or may not be another state heavily gerrymandered by Republicans soon. So we better do a fair Arizona gerrymander while we can.
1st District (blue): Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff). Flagstaff, Grand Canyon, and the Fort Apache Indian Reservation. Narrow white-majority district (47.6% Hispanic/Native American). 51.1% Obama. Not much different from her current district, which the Republicans desperately want to change, so she should still be considered the favorite in this one. Lean D.
2d District (green): Paul Gosar (R-Prescott). Yuma, Lake Havasu, Kingman, and Prescott. 61.7% McCain. Safe R.
3d District (purple): David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills). Prescott suburbs, Globe, and northern Maricopa County. 65.2% McCain. Safe R.
4th District (red): Open. Southwestern Maricopa County and Sun City. 60.5% McCain. Safe R.
Phoenix close-up:
5th District (gold): Open. Northern Phoenix suburbs, including Paradise Valley. 58.2% McCain. Safe R.
6th District (teal): Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix). Phoenix, Scottsdale, northern Tempe, and the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation. 52.5% Obama. Comparable to her current district, but Republicans want to do something about that, as well. Lean D.
7th District (dark gray): Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) and/or Trent Franks (R-Glendale). Phoenix and Glendale. 51.4% Hispanic. 56.1% Obama. Don't know if Gallego lives here or in the 8th, but he would be the clear favorite in either district. Franks would likely move to the more R-friendly 4th whether Gallego runs here or not. Safe D.
8th District (slate blue): Open or Gallego. Western Phoenix, Surprise, Avondale, and Goodyear. 66.5% Hispanic. 60.5% Obama. Safe D.
9th District (cyan): Open or Matt Salmon (R-Mesa). Southern Tempe, Chandler, and parts of Mesa. 52.2% Obama. This district is probably too purple for Salmon, so he would likely swim upstream to the deep pink 10th. Tossup.
10th District (deep pink): Salmon. Parts of Mesa and Gilbert. 62.9% McCain. Safe R.
11th District (chartreuse): Open. Parts of Chandler and Gilbert, and northwestern Pinal County. 60.7% McCain. Safe R.
12th District (cornflower blue): Martha McSally (R-Tucson). Casa Grande, Tucson suburbs, and Davis-Monthan Air Force Base. 58.3% McCain. There are three Tucson districts, but this is the only one in which McSally would dare run. Safe R.
13th District (dark salmon): Open or Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson). Southwestern Tucson suburns, Nogales, and Douglas. 53.3% Hispanic. 52.8% Obama. This Tucson district is Hispanic majority, but PVI EVEN. The 14th is white-majority, but D+5. If Grijalva runs here, he'll likely draw a strong GOP challenger. If he runs in the 14th, he'll likely draw a primary challenger. Tossup.
14th District (olive): Open or Grijalva. Tucson city limits. 57.1% Obama. Safe D, whether or not it's Grijalva.
16 Electoral Votes: One day, Arizona will be a purple state. 2016 will not be that day. Lean R.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VT, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 71 (added AZ-8, AZ-14)
Lean D: 41 (added AZ-1, AZ-6, AZ-7)
Tossup: 13 (added AZ-9, AZ-13)
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 98 (added AZ-2, AZ-3, AZ-4, AZ-5, AZ-10, AZ-11, AZ-12)
Total: 112 D, 13 Toss, 105 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 66 (added AZ-8, AZ-14)
Lean D: 27 (added AZ-1, AZ-6, AZ-7)
Tossup: 23 (added AZ-9, AZ-13)
Lean R: 10
Safe R: 104 (added AZ-2, AZ-3, AZ-4, AZ-5, AZ-10, AZ-11, AZ-12)
Total: 93 D, 23 Toss, 114 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VT, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MD (15), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 55
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), WI (14) = 59
Tossup: CO (13), MO (15), NE (1) = 29
Lean R: AZ (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 32
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 114 D, 29 Toss, 157 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MD (15), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 55
Lean D: ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), WI (14) = 42
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NV (8) = 45
Lean R: AZ (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 33
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 97 D, 45 Toss, 158 R