This will be the diary for mix the results of the series of diaries about senate and gubernatorial races. The structure of polls let we mix the results. It can be interesting see the relative positions what let our series.
In this diary i will make the next ranks with the results of these series:
- Tie points and Minimum Target Point.
- Rank of the most vulnerable republican senate seats and governors.
- Rank of the most vulnerable republican incumbents.
- Rank of the most weak democratic senate seats and governors.
- Rank of the most weak democratic incumbents.
- Bad polls in races in the Minimum Target Zone.
- Good polls in races out the Minimum Target Zone.
This ranks come from next series:
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
1. TIE POINTS AND MINIMUM TARGET POINT.
In a mix of all races we can try see where get the Tie Points, what are the points where democrats get like now after the next electoral round, (with 57+2 in senate and 28 governors) and Minimun Target Point, what is the point where the miminum objetives for this electoral round are completed succesful.
I think the minimum objectives for this electoral round can be win until 61 senators in the senate and keep the number of governors.
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%.
NH-Gov: Incumbent J Lynch (D-1952) win in 2008 with 70%.
CO-Gov: Incumbent W Ritter (D-1956) win in 2006 with 56%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent C Culver (D-1966) win in 2006 with 54%.
WI-Gov: Incumbent J Doyle (D-1945) win in 2006 with 53%.
MA-Gov: Incumbent D Patrick (D-1956) win in 2006 with 55%.
HI-Sen: L Lingle (R-1953) vs D Inouye (D-1924) ? after 20 votes = 09,417 => Safe Democratic
AR-Gov: Open R vs M Beebe (D-1946) ? after 14 votes = 09,286 => Safe Democratic
VT-Sen: J Douglas (R-1951) vs P Leahy (D-1940) ? after 25 votes = 09,133 => Safe Democratic
MD-Gov: R Ehrlich (R-1957) vs M O'Malley (D-1963) ? af 17 votes = 08,824 => Safe Democratic
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? af 30 votes = 08,722 Safe Democr
AR-Sen: open R vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? after 17 votes = 08,725 => Safe Democratic
IN-Sen: M Daniels (R-1949) vs E Bayh (D-1955) ? after 20 votes = 08,500 => Likely Democratic
IL-Gov: Open R vs P Quinn (D-1948) ? after 27 votes = 08,395 => Likely Democratic
IL-Sen: open R vs ? after 26 votes = 08,269 => Likely Democratic
OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ? af 12 votes = 08,194 => Likely Democratic
NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs A Cuomo (D-1957) ? af 20 votes = 08,083 => Likely Democratic
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 36 votes = 07,963 => Likely Democratic
HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs N Abercrombie (D-1938) ? af 19 votes = 07,895 => Likely Democr
ND-Sen: J Hoeven (R-1957) vs B Dorgan (D-1942) ? af 18 votes = 07,870 => Likely Democratic
WY-Gov: Open R vs D Freudenthal (D-1950) ? after 20 votes = 07,833 => Likely Democratic
OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 16 votes = 07,813 => Likely Democr
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? af 67 votes = 07,811 => Likely Democrat
CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 39 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
ME-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 35 votes = 07,762 => Likely Democratic
VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs ? after 07 votes = 07,619 => Likely Democratic
N NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs J Lynch (D-1952) ? af 20 votes = 07,583 => Likely Democratic
2 HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs ? after 17 votes = 07,396 => Likely Democratic
N? OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 14 votes = 07,381 => Likely Dem
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
NM-Gov: Open R vs D Denish (D-1949) ? after 23 votes = 07,319 => Likely Democratic
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 50 votes = 07,067 => Leans Democratic
SENATE TIE POINT = 57+2S (with E Rendell, and without J Lynch, T Strickland, J Rell and M Huckabee)
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,957 => Leans Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 12 votes = 06,944 => Leans Democratic
2 OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs ? after 13 votes = 06,923 => Leans Democratic
2 NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs D Paterson (D-1954) ? af 35 votes = 06,905 => Leans Democr
N? CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 06,714 => Leans Democratic
NJ-Gov: C Christie (R-1962) vs J Corzine (D- 1947) ? af 22 votes = 06,667 => Likely Democratic
RI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 13 votes = 06,538 => Leans Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? af 32 votes = 06,146 => Leans Democratic
PA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 15 votes = 06,000 => Leans Democratic
N? AR-Sen: M Huckabee (R-1955) vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? af 24 votes = 05,972 => Leans Democ
GUBERNATORIAL TIE POINT = 28G (with D Freudenthal and H Dean)
MINIMUM TARGET POINT = 60+2S + 28G (with D Freudenthal, H Dean and E Rendell, and without J Lynch)
N? KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 21 votes = 05,952 => Leans Democr
MI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 33 votes = 05,758 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 37 votes = 05,631 => Toss-Up
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 11 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ? after 27 votes = 05,494 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 34 votes = 05,098 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 45 votes = 04,926 => Toss-Up
AZ-Gov: J Brewer (R-1944) vs ? after 19 votes = 04,912 => Toss-Up
MN-Gov: T Pawlenty (R-1960) vs M Dayton (D-1947) ? after 41 votes = 04,512 => Toss-Up
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 59 votes = 03,616 => Leans Republican
FL-Gov: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? after 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
2 FL-Sen: C Crist (R-1956) vs ? after 34 votes = 03,480 => Leans Republican
N? IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? af 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republic
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 34 votes = 03,137 => Leans Republican
AK-Sen: L Murkowski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ? af 17 votes = 02,451 => Likely Republ
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs ? after 23 votes = 02,319 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 20 votes = 01,250 => Safe Republican
TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
*: The diary about Florida with an * is for gubernatorial race, but i include the same option for senate because we don't know what can decide C Crist. Now seem likely he run for senate. This will be one of biggest weak points of all analisis.
Another weak point will be in Pennsylvania with A Specter. Today we know the first poll in months and is so bad for A Specter in republican primaries.
These series let a very interesting result. All that tell can be more difficult keep the current number of governors what up until 60 or more senate seats. That is logical because this senate seats come from 2004 elections, and gubernatorial races come from 2006 elections, more favourables for democrats. The objetive of keep the number of governors tell where will be really the Minimum target point.
They are any possible candidates what can make very high influence in the races in his home state. Of course all democratic incumbents must run, but not only they. With the strongest democratic candidates, the efforts (included economics) for win races will down. J Kitzhaber and A Cuomo can help in OR-Gov and NY-Gov races, but they are three names very decisive now. They are D Freudenthal (incumbent but affected by WY term limits isssue), H Dean and E Rendell.
If H Dean not run, the chance of win VT-Gov race down much, and Democratic Party will need win MI-Gov race for keep the number of governors. If H Dean and D Freudenthal not run, Democratic Party will need win MI-Gov and VA-Gov races for keep the number of governors. If any of they not run, the Gubernatorial Tie Point will move, and that will make move too the Minimum Target Point to the same point.
Ed Rendell can make sure democrats win PA-Sen race over all possible candidates. If he not run, will make move the Senate Tie Point, but not the Minimum Target Point, because it is more determined by Gubernatorial Tie Point. If E Rendell not run, the only change in the Minimum Target Point will be this point would get with 59+2Sen + 28Gov. I think a senate seat more is important.
Is very interesting too, and very good new, see like in this moment the Minimum Target Point is in "Leans Democratic" territory. That make think Democratic Party must be few more ambitious for next electoral round and must try win more Toss-Up races.
2. RANK OF THE MOST VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SENATE SEATS AND GOVERNORS.
In this list i will include the races for seats with republican incumbent (maybe the incumbent not run) with more favourable rates for Democratic Party.
- CA-Gov: 07,963 LiD with J Brown.
- HI-Gov: 07,895 LiD with N Abercrombie.
- VT-Gov: 07,667 LiD with H Dean.
- N NH-Sen: 07,583 LiD with J Lynch. Not possible.
- N? OH-Sen: 07,381 LiD with T Strickland. Not possible?.
- PA-Sen: 07,350 LiD with E Rendell.
- NV-Gov: 06,957 LeD Mid level generic D.
- MO-Sen: 06,944 LeD with R Carnahan.
- RI-Gov: 06,538 LeD Mid level generic D.
- OH-Sen: 06,304 LeD Mid level generic D.
Here is the Minimum Target Point.
- N? KY-Sen: 05,952 LeD with S Beshear. Not possible?.
- KY-Sen: 05,631 T-U Mid level generic D.
- NH-Sen: 05,606 T-U with P Hodes.
- LA-Sen: 05,463 T-U with J Breaux.
- NC-Sen: 05,375 T-U High or Mid level generic D.
- 2 PA-Sen: 05,098 T-U Mid level generic D.
- 2 LA-Sen: 04,926 T-U with M Landrieu.
- MN-Gov: 04,512 T-U with M Dayton.
- 2 VT-Gov: 04,352 T-U Mid level generic D.
- OK-Sen: 03,616 LeR with B Henry.
Here is the Middle Point of Leans Republican zone. When C Crist governor tell if will run for senate or for governor, maybe we must include one of the races in Florida in this group.
3. RANK OF THE MOST VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS.
If we assume J Gregg is out of NH-Sen race, the most vulnerable republican incumbents are:
- VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) if H Dean run.
- PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) if E Rendell run.
- NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944).
Here is the Minimum Target Point.
- N? KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) if S Beshear run. Not possible?.
- KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931).
- LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) if J Breaux run.
- NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955).
- 2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930).
- 2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) if M Landrieu run.
- MN-Sen: T Pawlenty (R-1960) if M Dayton run.
- 2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951).
- OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) if B Henry run.
Here is the Middle Point of Leans Republican zone.
4. RANK OF THE MOST WEAK DEMOCRATIC SENATE SEATS AND GOVERNORS.
In this two series we can see the relative position of the most weak current democratic seats and governors offices.
- KS-Gov: ??,??? LiD or SR with S Brownback.
- OK-Gov: ??,??? LiR or SR High or Mid level generic R.
- TN-Gov: ??,??? LiR or SR High or Mid level generic R.
- VA-Gov: 05,494 T-U with R McDonnell.
- MI-Gov: 05,758 LeD High or Mid level generic R.
Here is the Minimum Target Point.
- N? AR-Sen: 05,972 LeD with M Huckabee. Not possible?.
- PA-Gov: 06,000 LeD High or Mid level generic R.
- CO-Sen: 06,146 LeD with W Owens.
Here is the Middle Point of Leans Democratic zone.
5. RANK OF THE MOST WEAK DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENTS.
Here is too the Minimum Target Point. No-one democratic incumbent appear in high risk zone.
- N? AR-Sen: B Lincoln (D-1960) if M Huckabee run. Not possible?.
- CO-Sen: M Bennet (D-1964) if W Owens run.
Here is the Middle Point of Leans Democratic zone.
6. BAD POLLS IN RACES IN THE MINIMUM TARGET ZONE.
In any of the races in the zone of Minimum Target Point, democratic possible candidates have bad polls, what can let in risk this objetive:
- - 23% D Paterson vs R Giuliani for NY-Gov.
- - 16% C Dodd vs R Simmons for CT-Sen (without J Rell).
- - 15% J Corzine vs C Christie for NJ-Gov. (pro-republican poll from Rasmussen Reports)
- - 8% B Biden vs M Castle for DE-Sen.
- - 3% M Bennet vs W Owens for CO-Sen.
- = 0% K Gillibrand vs G Pataki for NY-Sen.
- + 3% R Carnahan vs R Blunt for MO-Sen.
- + 6% H Reid vs J Porter for NV-Sen (without K Guinn).
- + 8% B Lincoln vs T Griffin for AR-Sen (without M Huckabee).
D Paterson down very much in last time. I think he can retire finally becaus A Cuomo appear much more strong, but in all other cases, democratic possible candidates need all the help for win. Lose any of this races can be very dangerous for democratic party, would be the way for bad results in next electoral round.
7. GOOD POLLS IN RACES OUT THE MINIMUM TARGET ZONE.
In any of the races out the zone of Minimum Target Point, democratic possible candidates have polls what make think in try win any race more:
- + 6% P Hodes vs J Sununu for NH-Sen.
- + 3% R Cooper vs R Burr for NC-Sen.
- = 0% J Rex vs H McNaster for SC-Gov.
- - 1% R Barnes vs C Cagle or J Oxendine for GA-Gov.
- - 3% B Moran vs R McDonnell for VA-Gov.
- - 3% B Chandler vs J Bunning for KY-Sen.
- - 6% T Baker vs J Isakson for GA-Sen.
- - 7% J Cherry vs M Cox for MI-Gov.
- - 7% C Melancon vs D Vitter for LA-Sen.
- - 8% T Knowles vs L Murkowski for AK-Sen.
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In next electoral round the Minimun Target Point Zone would be the zone where democratic party win 3 senate seats (PA-Sen, MO-Sen and OH-Sen), win 5 new gubernatorial races (CA-Gov, HI-Gov, VT-Gov, NV-Gov and RI-Gov), and lose another 5 gubernatorial races in states where the current gobernor is democrat (MI-Gov, VA-Gov, TN-Gov, OK-Gov and KS-Gov).
All democratic incumbents who can run again for same office must keep their office, D Freudenthal included, with the exception of M Parkinson and maybe of D Paterson, because A Cuomo appear so strong, for Democratic Party can complet succesfully this minimum target. Win NJ-Gov race this year will be very important, because seems this will be the hardest race for a democratic incumbent in next electoral round.
The polls show 3 republican incumbents very weak. J Gibbons by scandals, and E Rendell and H Dean make weak A Specter and J Douglas too. Defeat these republican incumbents can make more easy complet succesfully this target.
Over this minimun target they are more elections where democratic party can make competitive races. MI-Gov, VA-Gov (2009), KY-Sen, NH-Sen, NC-Sen, or LA-Sen, seems the bests options, and they are more where we don't have polls like, AZ-Gov, MN-Gov or OK-Sen. Any possible surprises can be CT-Gov, SC-Gov, GA-Gov, or OK-Gov races.
It would be very interesting know new poll. All democratic weak points are over the table, but seems they are few polls finding republican weak points. I like propose new likely interesting and likely good polls for democratic party:
HI-Gov with N Abercrombie
VT-Gov with H Dean
PA-Sen with E Rendell
NV-Gov with the bests Dems
RI-Gov with F Caprio
PA-Gov with the bests Dems
LA-Sen with J Breaux
AZ-Gov with the bests Dems
MN-Gov with M Dayton and more Dems
OK-Sen with B Henry
OK-Gov with the bests Dems
FL-Gov with the bests Dems and without C Crist