This installment of the Wyoming Rule series looks at two states which will end up having maps drawn by the courts this year, Minnesota and Nevada.
First up is Minnesota. MN would go from 8 to 9 districts under the Wyoming Rule. We already pretty much have a blueprint for how court-ordered redistricting in MN would go, so this map doesn't look too dissimilar from the current map. It maintains the Iron Range/Red River Valley split and ends up with 2 Minneapolis/St. Paul districts and 4 collar districts.
Next is NV, which has already had maps vetoed by Gov. Sandoval. NV would be going up to 5 seats under the Wyoming Rule. First job was to create a Hispanic-influenced district in Las Vegas. LV then ends up with 3 districts with 1 Washoe County based district and the Joe Heck LV-to-Reno district.
Previous diaries:
FL, ID, IN, NM, NC, NY, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA
Current seat count: 69D-120R
Minnesota
MN-01 Tim Walz (D-Mankato)
Rep. Walz's district sheds the 4 counties in the southwestern part of the state plus part of Cottonwood County. It becomes ever so slightly more Democratic.
51% Obama 46% McCain
R+1
MN-07 Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes)
Rep. Peterson's district picks up the southwestern counties from MN-01 and loses some of the counties in closer to Minneapolis: Meeker, McLeod, and Sibley. It too becomes ever so slightly more Democratic.
48% Obama 51% McCain
R+5
MN-08 Open
This district loses its southern portion in Isanti and Chisago counties. As a result, incumbent Chip Cravaack is cut out of the district. It also becomes a bit more Democratic.
55% Obama 43% McCain
D+5
Minneapolis/St. Paul
MN-02 John Kline (R-Lakeville)
The 2nd is still a district that takes in the suburbs south of Minneapolis/St. Paul. It becomes a point more Democratic and Obama actually won this district by 427 votes.
49% Obama 49% McCain
R+3
MN-03 Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie)
Rep. Paulsen's district picks up Carver County from the 2nd and McLeod and Sibly counties from the 7th while losing some of the northern part of Hennepin County. It becomes a couple points safer for the Republican.
50% Obama 48% McCain
R+2
MN-04 Betsy McCollum (D-St. Paul)
Rep. McCollum's district is nearly identical to what it is now: All of Ramsey County plus tiny portions of Washington and Dakota. Still solidly Democratic.
65% Obama 33% McCain
D+14
MN-05 Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis)
Rep. Ellison's district doesn't change too much either. It contains most of the Minneapolis area in Hennepin County and sneaks in to take a few precincts in Anoka. Safest seat in the state.
76% Obama 22% McCain
D+25
MN-06 Michelle Bachmann (R-Stillwater), Chip Cravaack (R-Lindstrom)
This district combines the southern parts of MN-08 in Isanti and Chisago counties with the eastern parts of MN-06 in Washington and Anoka counties. As a result, both Bachmann and Cravaack are in this district. Assuming Bachmann forgoes re-election to run for president, this ends up being Cravaack's district.
48% Obama 50% McCain
R+4
MN-09 Open
This is the new district in the state. It picks up pieces of MN-03, MN-06, and MN-07 to form a district more Republican than any that currently exists. It should be a safe Republican pick up.
45% Obama 55% McCain
R+8
Nevada
NV-02 Open
This seat is open due to Dean Heller moving up to the Senate. The new 2nd fits neatly into Washoe, Storey, Humboldt, Pershing, Churchill, Lander, Eureka, White Pine and Elko counties with a population deviation of 75. It loses some of the rural Republican counties, thus becoming an Obama district (though still Republican CPVI).
51% Obama 47% McCain
R+3
NV-03 Joe Heck (R-Henderson)
Rep. Heck's district is now the southern half of the state, minus urban Las Vegas. His hometown of Henderson still makes it in this district. With the pick up of some rural Republican counties, this district turns from an Obama district to a McCain district.
47% Obama 51% McCain
R+6
Las Vegas
NV-01 Open
The 1st is open due to Shelley Berkley running for Senate. It is now confined to the northern and western parts of the Las Vegas metro area. It becomes much less Democratic and is now a swing district.
55% Obama 43% McCain
D+1
NV-04 Open
The first new district is this one located on the southern side of Las Vegas metro. It should be expected to go Democratic most years, but on occasion could swing Republican.
59% Obama 39% McCain
D+5
NV-05 Open
The second new Las Vegas-based district attempts to build a Hispanic majority district. It doesn't quite get there, but with 48.8% Hispanic and 13.5% black by VAP, it is a coalition district and could be expected to elect a minority, most likely a Hispanic. It is safely Democratic.
73% Obama 25% McCain
D+19
For the purposes of my calculations, I'm calling Minnesota 5-4 Democratic, although many seats are tenuous at best (5 of the seats are R+1 to R+5). This is what I'd expect from a court-drawn map. I would call it 2D-1R with 3 Democratic-held swing districts and 3 Republican-held swing districts.
We have a similar situation in Nevada. I'm calling it 3-2 Democratic, but it's a map that neither party would actually draw. Democrats would like to distribute NV-05's wealth to NV-01 and NV-04 and make those all safe, over 60% Obama districts. Republicans would prefer to create 2 safe Democratic districts in Las Vegas, and make NV-03 and one of the LV districts more in their favor. As it is, this court-drawn map is 1D with 2 Democratic leaning swing districts and 2 Republican leaning swing districts. It could go 5-0 or 1-4 in any given year.