Here's comes one of the big states that a lot of you have probably been waiting for. A purple state heavily rigged by Republicans, and we're going to un-rig it today.
Previous states, in publishing order: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Kansas, West Virginia, Mississippi, Iowa, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Kentucky, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona, Indiana, Massachusetts, Washington, Virginia, New Jersey
This is only the second state where I couldn't get every district within 500 of the ideal average population. Again, you can blame the North Carolina politicians on creating voting precincts with several thousands of people.
1st District (blue): Mark Meadows (R-Cashiers). Murphy, Franklin, Hendersonville, and Columbus. 61% McCain. Safe R.
2d District (green): Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk). Asheville and the Smoky Mountains. 51.7% Obama. Foxx will be pissed with her new district, which could allow for the return of former congressman Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville). He was a hard-line conservative Democrat in the years that he was in the House, but he can afford to move to the center here. Tossup.
3d District (purple): Open. Hickory, Wilkesboro, and Mount Airy. 64.2% McCain, the reddest part of the Tar Heel State. Foxx may carpetbag here to save her ass. Safe R.
4th District (red): Patrick McHenry (R-Cherryville). Gastonia, Shelby, and Lincolnton. 62.5% McCain. Safe R.
5th District (gold): Open. Thankfully, we've undone that pornographic Charlotte-to-Greensboro 12th district. Not only does Charlotte get its own district, it gets two exclusive districts. This one has most of the minority precincts. 77.8% Obama, the bluest district in this state. 64.7% Black/Hispanic district. Safe D.
6th District (teal): Robert Pittenger (R-Charlotte). Mostly white precincts of Charlotte. 49.5%-49.5% split. It doesn't get any more even than this. Tossup.
7th District (dark gray): Open. Salisbury, Statesville, and some of the Winston-Salem outskirts. 62.7% McCain. Safe R.
8th District (slate blue): Open. Winston-Salem, Reidsville, Yanceyville, and Roxboro. 53.2% Obama. Anywhere from 3-5 points to the left of the state, so this has to be Lean D.
9th District (cyan): Alma Adams (D-Greensboro) and/or Mark Walker (R-Greensboro). Greensboro gets its own district, too! 60.6% Obama. Adams is safe. Walker has to walk to another district if he wants to stay in Congress. Safe D.
10th District (deep pink): Open. Lexington, Asheboro, Pittsboro, and Sanford. 62.3% McCain. Probably the most likely spot for Walker to carpetbag. Safe R.
11th District (chartreuse): Richard Hudson (R-Concord). Concord, Monroe, and Albemarle. 62% McCain. Safe R.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open. Rockingham, Laurinburg, Lumberton, and Fort Bragg. 51.1% Obama. 50% racial clusterfuck. Former representative Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton) could come out of retirement, if he wanted. Lean D with McIntyre, Tossup without McIntyre.
13th District (dark salmon): Open. Wilmington. 54.6% McCain. Safe R.
14th District (olive): The God-awful Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn). Fayetteville and Clinton. 55.3% Obama. Ellmers is going to steer clear of this district. We might allow Clay Aiken to run again, only if he promises to act like an actual Democrat. Lean D.
15th District (dark orange): David Rouzer (R-Benson). I'm not really thrilled with the borders of this district. It's just a bunch of leftovers centered around Goldsboro. 58% McCain. Rouzer may not have the Republican field to himself. Ellmers lives within walking distance of this district. She could slide over here and challenge him for the nomination. Safe R no matter who the nominee is.
16th District (lime): Open. Raleigh and Cary. 54.3% Obama. Brad Miller (D-Raleigh), yet another N.C. Democrat who retired after Republican redistricting, could make a comeback in this new district. Safe D with Miller, Lean D without Miller.
17th District (dark slate blue): Open. Raleigh and Durham. 77.6% Obama. 54.1% Black/Hispanic district. Safe D.
18th District (yellow): David Price (D-Chapel Hill). Chapel Hill, Burlington, Hillsborough, and Henderson. 56.6% Obama. Safe D.
19th District (yellow green): George Holding (R-Raleigh). Another leftovers district. Raleigh, Rocky Mount, and Roanoke Rapids. 52.2% Obama. Holding won't be happy with his new district. He could take a chance here and possibly lose to a moderate-to-conservative Democrat... or skip down to the new 15th, which would already have a Rouzer-Ellmers primary. Tossup with Holding, Lean D without Holding.
20th District (pink): G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson) and/or Walter Jones (R-Farmville). Wilson, Greenville, and Elizabeth City. 56.3% Obama. Butterfield is safe. Jones would be forced to move to another district. More than likely, he would try his luck in the 21st. He lives next door to the new 15th, but there could already be up to three incumbent Republicans fighting for that seat. If Jones ran there, the 15th would live up to the term "Republican clown car". Safe D.
21st District (maroon): Open. Kitty Hawk, Washington, New Bern, Jacksonville, and Camp Lejeune. 59.2% McCain. Safe R.
So how do you like that? North Carolina would go from a solid 10-3 Republican advantage to, at worst, a 9-8 Republican advantage with 4 swing seats.
23 Electoral Votes: Tossup.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 115 (added NC-5, NC-9, NC-16, NC-17, NC-18, NC-20)
Lean D: 60 (added NC-8, NC-12, NC-14, NC-19)
Tossup: 24 (added NC-2, NC-6)
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 125 (added NC-1, NC-3, NC-4, NC-7, NC-10, NC-11, NC-13, NC-15, NC-21)
Total: 175 D, 24 Toss, 132 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 110 (added NC-5, NC-9, NC-17, NC-18, NC-20)
Lean D: 38 (added NC-8, NC-14, NC-16)
Tossup: 41 (added NC-2, NC-6, NC-12, NC-19)
Lean R: 11
Safe R: 131 (added NC-1, NC-3, NC-4, NC-7, NC-10, NC-11, NC-13, NC-15, NC-21)
Total: 148 D, 41 Toss, 142 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), VA (20), WI (14) = 79
Tossup: CO (13), MO (15), NC (23), NE (1) = 52
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 188 D, 52 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), WI (14) = 42
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NC (23), NV (8), VA (20) = 88
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 49
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 151 D, 88 Toss, 174 R