Colorado specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 66 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Colorado has some odd number of delegates per district. Thus advantage is accrued by a candidate.
Basic Data: Colorado has 66 delegates available. There are 7 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO and at-large delegates, there are 9 different delegate allocation units. The delegates are mostly in 5,6,7,8 range. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 5 from CD4 CD5; 6 from CD3 CD6 CD7; 7 from CD2; 8 from CD1. Additionally 9PLEOs and 14 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results.
Colorado operates a closed caucus. Participation is open to all Democrats. Qualifying conditions apply.
Residency condition: must have been resident in participating precinct from before 30 Jan. Registration condition: must have been registered for not less than 29 days. (by 1st Feb). Affiliation condition: must have been a democrat for at least two months before caucus. Exemption for nearly 18 year olds. Anyone who turned 18 or was naturalized in the last two months are exempt from the affiliation condition. Exemption from residency condition for people who moved here recently provided that they have been a democrat elsewhere.
The general format of caucus (listed here only as a reminder to myself, and lest I forget. Occasionally this is referred to as three-tier caucus because there are three stages of the process)
First stage (aka first determining stage): 1st March 2016 held at precinct level, elects delegates to county convention. Usual rules of viability thresholds and triggers apply.
Second stage (aka county convention/assembly): held between 2nd and 26th of March , elects delegates to Congressional District/State conventions. Again usual rules of viability and thresholds apply here too.
Third stage (aka District convention/assembly): held between 1 April and 15th April. {seriously? first of April?}. elects 43 district level delegates.
Fourth Stage (aka State convention/assembly): held on 16 April. Elects Statewide delegates.
Colorado has a party organization and state election nominations process coinciding with the process. Due to minimum guaranteed delegates at precinct/county levels, rural and sparsely populated precincts/counties have proportionally higher representation.
This being caucus the final numbers of delegates from districts and state-wide awarded while can be estimated are they are estimates only. usually they might go up or down by upto 15% on county levels and 7.5% on district/state level. Usually means the actual DNC delegate numbers might go up or down by 1 delegate than estimated.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. I have grouped the Congressional districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them. The thresholds %s are relative to each other. For example, this means that a vote results of 49-48-2 is effectively, 50.5 — 49.5. This is derived from 49/(49+48) vs 48/(49+48).
Delegates Acquired
out of Available
|
5 del
cd4 cd5
|
6 del
cd3 cd6 cd7
|
7 del
cd2
|
8 del
cd1
|
Delegate Allocation Threshholds/Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
30 |
25 |
21.4 |
18.8 |
3 del |
50 |
41.7 |
35.7 |
31.3 |
4 del |
70 |
58.3 |
50 |
43.8 |
5 del |
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
56.3 |
6 del |
|
85 |
78.6 |
68.8 |
For 5 Delegates at CD4 CD5: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems a bit too much of a demand on any campaign. This district very crucial as they break in favour with just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. A campaign that wants to maintain parity needs to achieve at least 30% support needed for 2 delegates. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour.
For 6 Delegates at CD3 CD6 CD7: First two delegates are achieved at 15% and 25% respectively. Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level. Even in candidates home states and districts we have not yet seen this kind of support. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split with 58.3% votes. To maintain parity only 41.7% is needed giving 3-3 split.
For 7 Delegates at CD11: First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 21.4%. Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. Either candidates breaking through 64.3% support and achieve 5-2 split seems very distant. Each campaign should be aiming to maintain at least 35.7% vote share and retain a 3 delegates and then slug it out for final odd delegate for an advantage.
For 8 Delegates at CD6: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 18.8% and third at 31.3%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. To maintain parity goal will be to achieve 43.8% target to make the districts break even (4-4). To gain an advantage the target would be to score higher than 56.3%.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 9 PLEOs and 14 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
For 9 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): (See table below.) First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 16.7%, third at 27.8% and fourth at 38.9%. Each delegate needs roughly 11% shift in support. The tipping point is again at 50% for the advantageous break with 5-4 split. Additional delegates acquired at 61.2% and 72.3%. Table shows triggers for PLEOs. At-large delegates corresponding those triggers are also listed. There is a separate table further down focused on at-large delegate triggers.
Vote Share% |
15 |
16.7 |
27.8 |
38.9 |
50 |
61.2 |
72.3 |
83.4 |
85 |
State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share - PLEOs
PLEOs (9) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Corresponding
At-Large Del(14)
|
2 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
For 14 Statewide (at-large) delegates: (See table below). Because of a small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly chunky. Some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 7.1% votes translates to 1 delegate. Reaching 15% threshold gives a starting point of 2 delegates. Third delegate is cheap at 17.9%. Subsequently every 7.1% gives an extra delegate. Between 46.5%-53.6% delegates split even (7-7). A small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. Crossing 53.6% results in (9-7) split. In the table below, only some interesting trigger range is listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison.
Vote Share% |
15 |
17.9 |
25 |
32.2 |
39.3 |
46.5 |
53.6 |
60.8 |
67.9 |
State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share - At-Large
At-Large Del (14) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Corresponding
PLEO Del(9)
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Next bit is my personal opinion: Most of the contest is likely to be at the three triggers between 53% — 59%. Any extra push would always be beneficial. Due to the residential and party affiliation criteria used in Colorado, new injection of last minute voters and independents is not possible. The 2 month affiliation condition practically means that without the state party support a candidate will be hard pushed to gain an advantage of any kind. Party officials and activists who are very local to state and have local staff or infrastructure for their own elections will have influential role to play in the presidential preference caucus. Given that Colorado current and both former Governors, the current Lt governor, former secretary of state, and most of the usual democratic party activists are backing and campaigning for Clinton, I expect Clinton to safely cross 65% threshold. Expected split (44-22) Clinton advantage.
Previously covered states: Arkansas and Alabama and South-Carolina and Virginia and Massachusetts and New-Hampshire and Vermont and Georgia and Oklahoma and Tennessee and Texas and Nevada
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a your particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
Today's shout outs are to Angela Marx who has been busy promoting and encouraging people to get involved in running for office. And here is their latest bulletin http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/06/1480779/-Help-Progressives-Win-Roundup-Edition-AL-CA-FL-IA-MD-MI-NC-NJ-NH-NY-OK-PA-TX-WA