This installment of the Wyoming Rule series looks at Michigan, which instead of losing a seat would go up to 18 under the rule.
Michigan has long been a Democratic stronghold, but much of that strength is concentrated in Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint in the eastern part of the state. This enables Democrats to be packed into a few districts, which Republicans (with the trifecta) no doubt will do. John McCain didn't contest MI in 2008, so many of the districts are more Republican than the Obama/McCain numbers reflect. The CPVIs are probably are better reflection for each district.
Previous diaries:
FL, GA, ID, IN, MN, NV, NM, NY, NC, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA
Current seat count: 82D-138R
Upper Michigan
MI-01 Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls)
Due to geographical considerations, there's not all that much that can be done with MI-01. It's the UP plus some counties from northern Michigan. My Wyoming Rule district ends up with the same partisanship as the current district.
50% Obama 48% McCain
R+3
MI-04 Open
This is the rural northern district previously occupied by Dave Camp. I actually put him just outside of this district so this ends up being an open district. It too keeps the same partisanship as the current MI-04.
50% Obama 48% McCain
R+3
Lower Michigan
MI-02 Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland)
Rep. Huizenga's district contains the Lake Michigan shore counties of Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, and Ottawa. Again, the district maintains the same partisan breakdown, making it the most Republican district in the state.
48% Obama 51% McCain
R+7
MI-03 Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township)
Kent County gets a district entirely within its borders. This makes Rep. Amash about a point more vulnerable. As an example of how Republican this district is, Dem/Rep here is 38/62.
50% Obama 48% McCain
R+5
MI-17 Dave Camp (R-Midland)
The new 17th district is a large part of the southern portion of the old MI-04. Dave Camp is in the district now. It is more Democratic than Rep. Camp's old district, but it still should be winnable for him.
52% Obama 46% McCain
R+1
MI-05 Dale Kildee (D-Flint)
Rep. Kildee's district is now just Genessee County (Flint) and the city of Saginaw. It should be pretty safely Democratic.
65% Obama 34% McCain
D+12
MI-10 Open
This is most of Candice Miller's thumb district, but she no longer lives here. It flips from a slight McCain district to a slight Obama district; however, I would expect Republicans to win here most years (41.5/58.5 Dem/Rep).
50% Obama 49% McCain
R+4
MI-16 Open
This is the area I struggled in. Kalamazoo and Lansing can't really be connected to make a Dem vote sink. So there were two options: Put Kalamazoo in with Allegan County to create two Rep-leaning swing districts, or split Kalamazoo and Allegan and make one Dem-leaning swing district and one Rep-leaning swing district. Since Republicans are in charge of redistricting, I went with the former.
This is a new district based in Kalamazoo. The Democratic Kalamazoo area is balanced by the more Republican Allegan and Barry counties. Partisan breakdown is the same as the current MI-06. It's a tossup, with the Dem/Rep breakdown at 43/57.
53% Obama 46% McCain
EVEN
MI-06 Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph)
Rep. Upton's district loses Kalamazoo and extends further east. It becomes a bit safer for the incumbent, but he is pretty well entrenched anyway.
51% Obama 47% McCain
R+3
MI-17 Tim Walberg (R-Tipton)
Rep. Walberg gets pushed further to the east. Most of the southeastern part of the state is in this district. It is ever so slightly more Republican than the current MI-07. Still a swing district.
52% Obama 47% McCain
R+2
MI-08 Mike Rogers (R-Brighton)
Rep. Rogers' district is very similar to what it is now. It loses its parts in Clinton and Shiawassee counties. Other than that, it remains in Ingham, Livingston, and northern Oakland counties.
51% Obama 47% McCain
R+3
Detroit
MI-15 John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Rep. Dingell's district becomes southern Wayne County and Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti from Washtenaw County. As would be expected, it is highly Democratic. And yes, Dingell isn't exactly in this district anymore.
70% Obama 28% McCain
D+18
MI-11 Thad McCotter (R-Livonia)
Rep. McCotter stays pretty well the same. It still straddles Wayne and Oakland counties. It loses Romulus and Westland and adds Dearborn Heights.
51% Obama 47% McCain
R+2
MI-13 Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit)
Rep. Clarke's district is the first all-Wayne County AA-majority district. It is the most Democratic district in the state.
66% AA
91% Obama 9% McCain
D+37
MI-14 John Conyers (D-Detroit)
This is the second Detroit based AA-majority district, although this one isn't quite as packed as MI-13. Still safe Democratic, though.
51% AA
79% Obama 20% McCain
D+28
MI-12 Sandy Levin (D-Royal Oak)
Rep. Levin's district remains one that straddles Oakland and Macomb counties. It takes in Pontiac in much the same way as the proposed Wayne-Oakland minority district does.
72% Obama 26% McCain
D+19
MI-09 Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township)
Rep. Peters gets to keep his district, although it becomes a lot less friendly. It is still an Oakland County only district.
51% Obama 47% McCain
R+3
MI-18 Candice Miller (R-Harrison Township)
Rep. Miller gets a new district entirely within Macomb County. It should be considered a Republican-leaning swing district, although Miller should be safe here for awhile.
50% Obama 48% McCain
R+3
So there we have Michigan. I'm calling it a 12-6 map (Dem seats are the 3 Wayne County seats, Levin, Kildee, and the Kalamazoo seat). However, there are 12 seats with CPVIs between EVEN and R+5, making for a lot of swinginess in the state.