This installment of the Wyoming Rule series looks at Tennessee, which would get 11 congressional seats under the rule.
It should come as no surprise that with Republicans owning the trifecta in Tennessee, they would only draw 2 Democratic seats, one in Memphis and one in Nashville.
Previous diaries:
FL, GA, ID, IN, MI, MN, NV, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA
Current seat count: 94D-165R
Tennessee
TN-01 Phil Roe (R-Johnson City)
Not much to see here. Rep. Roe's highly Republican Johnson City-based district in the northeastern corner of the state.
29% Obama 71% McCain
R+21
TN-02 Jimmy Duncan (R-Knoxville)
Rep. Duncan's Knoxville district is down to 3 counties: Knox, Jefferson, and Sevier.
36% Obama 64% McCain
R+15
TN-03 Open
This is a new district in the eastern third of the state that is made up of the leftovers of the old 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. It would be a sure Republican pick up.
31% Obama 69% McCain
R+19
TN-04 Chuck Fleischmann (R-Chattanooga)
Rep. Fleischmann's districts shrinks a bit in the southeastern part of the state. It becomes 5-6 points safer for the Republican.
32% Obama 68% McCain
R+18
TN-05 Scott DesJarlais (R-South Pittsburg)
Rep. DesJarlais keeps the core of his district and just loses some counties on the eastern and western edges. It becomes a couple points more Democratic, but still should be a Republican hold.
37% Obama 63% McCain
R+11
TN-06 Diane Black (R-Gallatin)
Rep. Black loses the southern part of TN-06 but maintains the northern part. It is a little more Nashville-centric than the current district.
35% Obama 65% McCain
R+15
TN-07 Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood)
Rep. Blackburn gets a compact Nashville suburbs-based district. It should be completely safe for the foreseeable future.
37% Obama 63% McCain
R+16
TN-08 Jim Cooper (D-Nashville)
Rep. Cooper survives this redistricting and gets a much more Democratic district, which could cause primary problems for the Blue Dog. The new district is based in Nashville but has an arm that shoots up to the Democratic areas of Montgomery County.
67% Obama 33% McCain
D+13
TN-09 Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County)
Rep. Fincher's district gets pushed eastward and he no longer has to worry about a primary from a Memphis-based Republican. He will also be happy with the much safer district.
38% Obama 62% McCain
R+12
TN-10 Open
This is a new western Tennessee district that should be dominated by a Memphis Republican. The ancestral Democratic areas on the Mississippi river get overwhelmed by the Republican Memphis suburbs so this district should easily elect a Republican.
35% Obama 65% McCain
R+14
TN-11 Steve Cohen (D-Memphis)
Rep. Cohen once again has a highly Democratic, highly African American Memphis city district. I tried drawing two 50% VAP AA districts here, but it couldn't be done. If Democrats are ever in charge, it IS possible to draw two 60% Obama districts based in Memphis. However, neither would be over 50% AA by VAP. To get one district up to 50%, the other one would be down around 56%-57% Obama. Not great, but much better than what this map presents.
85% Obama 15% McCain
D+30
So there we have Tennessee. Republicans end up with a 9-2 advantage and every district in the state has a double digit CPVI. It's doubtful that any district would be competitive over the next decade.