For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.
First, a haiku.
Andrew Cuomo
You wanted Republicans?
You got 'em, asshole
Exhibit A in "Why Andrew Cuomo Should Never be a Democratic Nominee for President" will be the redistricting fuckover he gave us. Originally threatening to veto any congressional and legislative maps that weren't drawn by an independent redistricting panel, he instead allowed a horrendous Republican gerrymander of the State Senate, including a brand-new 63rd seat, and once the legislature had that, they didn't give a shit about congressional redistricting, they let a court-appointed "special master" draw it. Cuomo apparently doesn't mind working with a Republican branch of the legislature.
The congressional map we got isn't all that bad, it eliminates two seats: Bob Turner's (R) seat in NYC and an open Dem seat, in favor of a compact, CoI map. That resulted in us likely to lose Rep. Kathy Hochul, but two Republican incumbents (Hayworth and Gibson) were also weakened. But Dems should still be outraged at these shenanigans.
Anyway, I wanted to draw a Dem-friendly map, but Doubled.
Link to the adopted plan.
Previous Doubling Diaries: AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
New York
New York gets 55 districts.
The Dem average is "All 2010 Statewide races", presumably including both Senate races. Both Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, as well as then-Attorney General Andrew Cuomo faced token opposition. Eric Schneiderman won the open Attorney General race by 13 points, and appointed Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli winning his first election by only 4 points. So a pretty Dem-friendly sample.
Long Island
1
VAP: 78.7 White, 5 Black, 11.4 Hispanic
53.9 Obama, 56.6 Dem
Tim Bishop (D-Southampton) lives here. Suffolk County, including the Hamptons. Bishop, it would appear, represents all of these constituents, as well as getting a 2% bump in Obama performance. If Bishop can survive his current district in 2010, he'll be invincible this November in a presidential year. Safe D
2
VAP: 81.4 W, 11.2 H
49.6 Obama (Obama win by 272 votes), 52.3 Dem
Open. Suffolk County, including the Patchogues, the Islips and Holbrook. Very closely divided, I would probably give the edge to a Republican state Senator trying to move up. Lean R
3
VAP: 61 W, 8.2 B, 25.9 H
53.6 Obama, 55.7 Dem
Open. More Suffolk County, centered on Smithtown. Without any other information, I'd call this Lean D
4
VAP: 70.2 W, 10.6 B, 14 H
54.6 Obama, 56.6 Dem
Steve Israel (D-Dix Hills), the Chairman of the DCCC, lives here. The last district contained entirely in Suffolk County, this district encompasses Huntington Station, West Islip and West Babylon. Israel takes a little bit of a hit, but he should be fine. Likely D
5
VAP: 81.9 W, 7.7 H, 7.5 Asian
51 Obama, 52.7 Dem
Open. Suffolk and Nassau Counties, including most of the hometown of singer Billy Joel, Oyster Bay. That's all I really have to say, and I'm taking a stab and saying Swing
6
VAP: 71.1 W, 6 B, 11.4 H, 10.1 A
50.6 Obama, 53.1 Dem
This is what I get for drawing maps without incumbents in mind. This district takes in the homes of Peter King (R-Seaford), Carolyn Maloney (D-Mineola) and Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights). Hoo boy. Of course, Ackerman just announced that he's retiring, so no big deal. Maloney probably inches south to the 7th, which better resembles her district anyway. King runs here. Better for him than the special master-drawn map, but still worse than his current one, he's slightly more vulnerable. Likely R with King
7
VAP: 57.2 W, 17.5 B, 19 H, 5 A
57.4 Obama, 58.3 Dem
Open, though Carolyn Maloney likely runs here. Southern Nassau County, taking in Hempstead, Garden City, Merrick and part of Levittown. Obama's performance takes a small hit, but Maloney will be fine. Safe D
8
VAP: 67.3 W, 12.3 B, 13.2 H, 5.7 A
54 Obama, 56.1 Dem
Open. Southwestern Nassau County, including Rockaway, Long Beach and Oceanside. I'd shoot for Lean D here.
New York City
Apologies for the small pictures, but I didn't want to be taking 6,000 screenshots. I can make any zooms available.
9
VAP: 27.5 W, 14.5 H, 51.7 A
65.4 Obama, 70.2 Dem
Open; Asian majority. Northern Queens. Assemblywoman Grace Meng (D) who is already running for Gary Ackerman's open seat, would run here and win in a walk. Safe D, Asian pickup
10
VAP: 30.1 W, 27.3 H, 35.6 A
70.8 Obama, 74.1 Dem
Joe Crowley (D-Woodside) lives here; racial clusterfuck with an Asian plurality. More Queens. Crowley, who is also the boss of the Queens Democratic Party, could probably survive a primary in this district, but he takes at least a 15-point hit in white population. He might want to move to the neighboring 23rd, where it's plurality white and even more Democratic. But who knows. Safe D, Asian opportunity if open
11
VAP: 11.9 W, 45.7 B, 19.3 H, 15.8 A
87.9 Obama, 88.8 Dem
Gregory Meeks (D-St. Albans) lives here; plurality black. Hey, Queens! As well as a slice of leftover Nassau County. Meeks would probably be very unhappy at losing a black majority district, but blacks are more than double any other racial group, so he'd only be vulnerable in a primary from another black politician, which wouldn't be any different from before. Safe D, black hold
12
VAP: 21.6 W, 48.7 B, 15.3 H, 7.4 A
81.6 Obama, 83.2 Dem
Bob Turner (R-Breezy Point) lives here; plurality black. Southern Queens, including JFK Airport. Turner doesn't have a prayer in this district, or any other district in NYC. So he continues his suicidal run at the Senate. Come to think of it, Gregory Meeks might actually want to move here; it's slightly more black than the 11th, and that matters to members of the CBC. Safe D, black pickup/hold
13
VAP: 25.8 W, 8.4 B, 51.1 H, 10.8 A
79.3 Obama, 80.7 Dem
Ed Towns (D-East New York) lives here; majority Hispanic. Parts of Brooklyn and Queens. Towns will likely inch south to the 18th. This is actually a perfect district for Nydia Velazquez (D-Red Hook); she doesn't live in her current district anyway, and doesn't live in this one either, but it's more Hispanic than her current one, and she already represents part if not most of it. Safe D, Hispanic hold
14
VAP: 44.3 W, 38.3 B, 10.9 H
70.9 Obama, 74.5 Dem
Open; plurality white. This is the fun part where I start to crack heavily Republican South Brooklyn. Because a fair number of the whites in this district will vote Republican, the Democratic primary will probably be more black than white, and whoever makes it out of that will easily win the general election. Safe D, black opportunity
15
VAP: 37.6 W, 21.4 H, 38.4 A
59.7 Obama, 65.4 Dem
Open; racial clusterfuck with an Asian plurality. South Brooklyn. The least Democratic district in New York City, not counting the Staten Island-based 20th (and really, who does?). Asians don't have much of a bench in the area, so the Democratic primary would probably favor whites, but whoever wins would be favored in the general election. Safe D, Asian opportunity
16
VAP: 34 W, 50.7 B, 8.2 H, 5.1 A
73.8 Obama, 78.1 Dem
Open; black majority. Continuing to crack South Brooklyn. Safe D, black pickup
17
VAP: 27.9 W, 49.7 B, 13.6 H
79.3 Obama, 81.2 Dem
Yvette Clark (D-Flatbrush) lives here; plurality black. More cracking. A shocker I just noticed as I was writing this; this district is actually getting less black. An African-American is still virtually assured to win the primary, regardless of whether or not it's Congresswoman Clark. Safe D, black hold
18
VAP: 17.6 W, 52 B, 23.5 H
92.8 Obama, 94.5 Dem
Open; majority black. North Brooklyn. As I mentioned above, Ed Towns will want to run here, his home was just barely drawn into the 13th. Safe D, black hold
19
VAP: 38.9 W, 27.4 B, 13.4 H, 18 A
89.5 Obama, 89.3 Dem
Open; racial clusterfuck with a white plurality. Brooklyn and heading onto the Island of Manhattan. I could not possibly handicap a primary for you, but it's Safe D, minority opportunity
20
VAP: 79 W, 10 H, 7.5 A
39.3 Obama, 43.9 Dem
Michael Grimm (R-Willowbrook) lives here. The majority of Richmond County, better known as Staten Island. Interestingly, the most Republican district in the state by Obama numbers. Grimm, assuming he survives his multiple ethics scandals, would be fine here, as would any Republican. Safe R
21
VAP: 49.6 W, 14.8 B, 23.4 H, 10 A
73 Obama, 73.4 Dem
Nydia Velazquez (D-Red Hook) lives here; plurality white. Northern Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn. Velazquez, as I mentioned above, runs in the majority-Hispanic 13th instead. This district, though I didn't plan it this way, looks almost exactly like the district of State Senator Diane Savino (D). And she would probably leap out of her seat to run here before her brain even fully thought it through. Safe D
22
VAP: 64.5 W, 17.6 H, 11.4 A
86.9 Obama, 85 Obama
Open. Lower Manhattan, including Greenwich village, SoHo and the Financial District, as well as part of Brooklyn. Absurdly Democratic. Safe D
23
VAP: 45.7 W, 5.2 B, 33.6 H, 13.3 A
74.2 Obama, 75.2 Dem
Open. Queens, including Astoria Heights and Middle Village. As I mentioned above, Joe Crowley may want to run here instead of the plurality-Asian 10th that contains his home, but as Queens Democratic boss, he could probably survive no matter what. Safe D
24
VAP: 14 W, 15.5 B, 60.4 H, 8.6 A
86.4 Obama, 87.8 Dem
Open; supermajority Hispanic. Parts of Queens, Manhattan and the Bronx, all heavily Hispanic. Includes Rikers Island and LaGuardia Airport. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
26
VAP: 70.3 W, 9.8 H, 13.5 A
79.7 Obama, 76.4 Dem
Open. Middle Manhattan, including Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen and the Theatre District, plus Roosevelt Island. Carolyn Maloney would probably move out of the 28th where she was drawn together with Jerrold Nadler to run here. Safe D
27
VAP: 8.7 W, 48.3 B, 38.5 H
96.8 Obama, 96.7 Dem
Charlie Rangel (D-Harlem) and José Serrano (D-South Bronx) both live here; plurality black. Even though it would keep Rangel in office for as long as he wanted (not that he needed any help from me), I thought that Harlem should have a black Representative, so I drew this district. It would only work for so long though; Hispanics are growing. Serrano, whose home is just on the border of this district and the 30th, would run there instead. This would probably be the best Obama district in the county, by the way. Safe D, black hold
28
VAP: 74.6 W, 10 H, 8.8 A
82.1 Obama, 78.4 Dem
Jerrold Nadler (D-Upper West Side) and Carolyn Maloney (D-Upper East Side) both live here. Upper Manhattan, including both the West and East Sides, as well as Central Park. Come to think of it, contrary to what I said above, both this district and the 26th contain about half of Nadler's and Maloney's Manhattan territory. I think they could just flip a coin to see who runs where. Safe D
29
VAP: 16.1 W, 14.2 B, 64.6 H
92 Obama, 92.3 Dem
Open; supermajority Hispanic. Hispanic parts of Manhattan and into the Bronx. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
30
VAP: 28.9 B, 63.1 H
94 Obama, 95.3 Dem
Open; supermajority Hispanic. The Bronx, possibly the least white district in the country at less than 5%. As I mentioned above, this is where José Serrano would run. Safe D, Hispanic hold
The Bronx/Westchester
25
VAP: 42.5 W, 12.9 B, 31.8 H, 11 A
68.3 Obama, 69.2 Dem
Open; plurality white. Queens, the Bronx and part of Pelham in Westchester. There's an opportunity for a Hispanic in the primary, but whites would probably have the upper hand. Safe D, Hispanic opportunity
31
VAP: 14.1 W, 53.4 B, 26.7 H
90.1 Obama, 90.7 Dem
Open; majority black. Bronx and Westchester. I was surprised there was a black majority district to be had outside of Brooklyn. Safe D, black pickup
32
VAP: 31.7 W, 16.3 W, 44.3 H, 5.9 A
76.7 Obama, 76.5 Dem
Eliot Engel (D-Riverdale) lives here; plurality Hispanic. Part of the Bronx and Yonkers. Engel, whose entire career hinges on his visibility at State of the Union addresses, may not like the fact that his district is not plurality white as his current one is, but it's safely Democratic enough and he could probably survive a primary easily. Safe D, Hispanic opportunity when open
33
VAP: 67.6 W, 6.7 B, 17.2 H, 7.1 A
61.1 Obama, 60.3 Dem
Nita Lowey (D-Rye) lives here. Westchester County. A touch less safe than Lowey's current district, she'll still be fine. Safe D
Hudson Valley
34
VAP: 64.4 W, 12.1 B, 15.5 H, 6.7 A
57.3 Obama, 60 Dem
Open. Westchester and Rockland Counties, including the citites of Ossining and Nyack. This is getting towards the edge of absolute safety for New York Democrats, but I imagine this would be Likely D
35
VAP: 75.4 W, 5.4 B, 14.3 H
53.4 Obama, 56 Dem
Nan Hayworth (R-Mount Kisco) lives here. Westchester, Rockland and Putnam Counties. Hayworth, who only won her race by 5 points in the best Republican election in 20 years, now has to deal with a seat that's 2 points more Democratic. Swing
36
VAP: 76.8 W, 8.6 B, 9.9 H
53.6 Obama, 54.5 Dem
Open. Putnam and Dutchess Counties, along with most of the city of Kingston in Ulster County. Former Rep. John Hall (D) lives here, and if he wanted a comeback he could do very well. Likely D with Hall, Lean D otherwise
37
VAP: 70.4 W, 9.4 B, 16.1 H
52.5 Obama, 56.1 Dem
Open. Orange and Sullivan Counties, based in the cities of Newburgh and Middletown. I'm a little hesitant to rate this, but other than accidental Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, no Republican won a district that was more than 51% Obama, even in 2010. So in an open seat situation, I'll say Swing
Upstate
38
VAP: 84.8 W, 7.3 H
54.6 Obama, 54.5 Dem
Open; Maurice Hinchey (D-Hurley) is retiring. Sorry for the cut off, you can see the southern half of the district in the Hudson Valley picture. Cut off from the Democratic centers of the Binghamton and Ithaca, this is still not a bad district for whoever wants to represent this area for Team Blue. Lean D
39
VAP: 85.3 W, 5.9 B
55.6 Obama, 57 Dem
Chris Gibson (R-Kinderhook) lives here. Columbia and Renesslaer Counties, and the city of Schnectady. Gibson would be pretty much doomed here in a presidential year, so I think he'd rather run to the north in the neighboring 41st. Likely D
40
VAP: 80.2 W, 10.1 B
61.6 Obama, 63.3 Dem
Open. Albany County, as well as Rotterdam in Schenectady County and a small part of Greene County. Paul Tonko is currently the Albany-area Rep, but his home of Amsterdam was drawn into a Republican vote sink. So he'd run here instead. Safe D
41
VAP: 94.9 W
50.1 Obama, 51.1 Dem
Open. Based in Saratoga Springs, this also reaches up to Elizabethtown in the North Country. As I mentioned, Chris Gibson will want to run here, it's better for him than his current district. Lean R
42
VAP: 89.1 W
56.8 Obama, 59.4 Dem
Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh) lives here. More North Country, based in Plattsburgh and Watertown. Owens becomes much safer. Safe D
43
VAP: 90 W
48.6 Obama (McCain win by >2000 votes), 53.7 Dem
Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld) lives here. The last of the North Country districts, based in Utica, Rome and Oswego. Though I didn't plan it this way, this would be a good district for former State Senator Darrel Aubertine (D) to fall up; it contains his home of St. Vincent and a good chunk of his former territory. And it's only 4000 votes worse for Obama than his old Senate district. Even though Hanna's home is here, most of the territory is new to him so I imagine he runs next door in the 46th, where even though the same is true that a lot of territory is new to him, it's also much safer than any other district he could run in.
Swing if open with Aubertine
Lean R if Aubertine vs. Hanna
Likely R otherwise
44
VAP: 79.9 W, 11.1 B
57.6 Obama, 58.2 Dem
Accidental Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-Syracuse) lives here. Syracuse plus a little spreading out to keep from packing Dems. Dan Maffei runs, and Buerkle's short tenure is up. Likely D
45
VAP: 92.2 W
52.7 Obama, 54.8 Dem
Open. Suburban Syracuse, Auburn and part of Wayne County. A shot in the dark at Swing
46
VAP: 93.8 W
46.7 Obama, 48.1 Dem
Open; Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam) lives here, but he runs in the Albany-based 40th. Only the second true Republican vote sink. The only interesting part of this district is that is home to Cooperstown, home of the Baseball Hall of Fame. As I mentioned above, the prospect of a truly safe district would be tantalizing to Richard Hanna, who may run here despite the new territory. Safe R no matter what.
47
VAP: 86.8 W, 5 A
58.2 Obama, 56.8 Dem
Open. Ithaca and Binghamton. Not much else to say. Safe D
48
VAP: 93.1 W
48.1 Obama, 48.6 Dem
Open. Southern Tier. Another vote sink-ish district. A Blue Dog, to the extent that they exist in New York, could win this, but not much else. Likely R
Buffalo and Rochester
49
VAP: 94 W
40.6 Obama, 41.2 Dem
Tom Reed (R-Corning) lives here. More Southern Tier. The second worst district in the state for President Obama, and the worst by Dem performance. The only potential problem for Reed is that he may be susceptible to a primary challenge. Safe R
50
VAP: 91.4 W
51.6 Obama, 49 Dem
Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) lives here. Southern Tier and into Erie County. One of only a handful of districts where Obama outperforms the Dem average, which is not necessarily a good sign. Higgins would probably want to move north to the 51st. Former Erie County Executive Chris Collins, who is currently running against Kathy Hochul, may actually not mind running here.
Lean R
51
VAP: 73.1 W, 19.3 B
60.9 Obama, 55 Dem
Open. Buffalo and Erie County. Like I said, Brian Higgins would probably run here instead, but it's an open question whether he could make it out of a primary; he's used to a more lean Dem district and he's among the prime candidates for "Most Anonymous Representative". Safe D regardless.
52
VAP: 80.3 W, 10.7 B
56.7 Obama, 50.7 Dem
Kathy Hochul (D-Amherst) lives here. Amherst, plus parts of Erie and Niagara Counties. This is Hochul's reward for her amazing performance in last year's special election: a seat that she can easily hold. Likely D
53
VAP: 84.9 W, 7.9 B
54.3 Obama, 51.4 Dem
Open. The Earmuffs live! This district goes from Tonawanda to Irondequoit to get the best district possible for Dems. Lean D
54
VAP: 73.7 W, 15.6 B, 6.9 H
57.3 Obama, 57.8 Dem
Open. Most of Rochester, plus parts of Monroe and Orleans Counties. Safe D
55
VAP: 83.5 W, 7.9 B
56.2 Obama, 57.5 Dem
Louise Slaughter (D-Fairport) the Ranking Member of the Committee on Rules, lives here. Outer Rochester, including Brighton, and a small part of Livingston County. Slaughter takes quite a hit in Obama performance from 69%, but she's a tough old bird and I believe in her! Safe D
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So, from a 21-8 delegation to a map that at absolute best gives us a 23-4, to a Doubled map that is 41-8-5 (assuming Richard Hanna runs in the 46th and Darrel Aubertine runs in the 43rd, which for the purposes of this series we will). This includes three new black congressmen joining Reps. Meeks, Clarke, Towns and Rangel, two new Hispanic congressmen to join Reps. Velazquez and Serrano, and a brand new Asian representative, probably Assemblywoman Grace Meng. There are also four new open minority opportunity seats.
The Doubled House of Representatives so far stands at 317-215-51
As always, please comment!
Up next: Washington and Montana