North Carolina Senate redistricting

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Thursday July 07, 2011 · 12:36 PM PDT

2011/07/07 · 12:36

Earlier today, a question was brought up concerning what NC legislative redistricting would look like.

My initial thought was that it would end up as bad as the congressional redistricting, since we are going from a Dem gerrymandered map to a Rep gerrymandered map. What I ended up drawing confirmed this.

Starting with the NC Senate proposed VRA districts, I put together a [very] rough map. The biggest problem is that you can't split precincts in DRA and NC Senate districts are allowed large population deviations. The Senate-drawn SD-03 is -9,175 people. I don't come anywhere close to that kind of deviation, but who knows what the legislature will actually do.

I'm not going to discuss every district; I will just give the numbers. The only district that completely changed was the 29th, which moves from Asheboro in the center of the state, to the northwestern corner. All other districts maintain at least part of their current shape, although I can't begin to tell you which Senators live in their new district and which don't. So without further ado:

elucas730

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Thursday July 07, 2011 · 7:42 AM PDT

2011/07/07 · 07:42

In a previous diary, roguemapper details why he thinks the proposed NC-01 and NC-12 are illegal.

The issue with NC-01 is that it pulls out of the Section 5-protected counties of Beaufort, Craven, Gates, Wayne, and Washington. Roguemapper then goes on to propose a map that goes into those 5 counties but pulls out of Raleigh and goes into Durham instead.

So I've been thinking about what would happen if Republicans were told that NC-01 had to go into those 5 counties and if they were told that the I-85 gerrymander had to go away. In this diary, I present what I think they would do, including a NC-01 that both goes into the 5 counties AND goes into Raleigh instead of Durham. The result is an even worse map than what is currently proposed. It's not pretty, but no map of North Carolina ever will be.

elucas730

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Wednesday July 06, 2011 · 5:10 PM PDT

2011/07/06 · 17:10

This installment of the Wyoming Rule series looks at Tennessee, which would get 11 congressional seats under the rule.

It should come as no surprise that with Republicans owning the trifecta in Tennessee, they would only draw 2 Democratic seats, one in Memphis and one in Nashville.

Previous diaries:
FL, GA, ID, IN, MI, MN, NV, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA

Current seat count: 94D-165R

elucas730

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Friday July 01, 2011 · 10:14 AM PDT

2011/07/01 · 10:14

Until David gets something up on the home page...

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/...

elucas730

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Friday July 01, 2011 · 8:27 AM PDT

2011/07/01 · 08:27

There are some states, say Missouri, Indiana, or Oklahoma, where one can make a reasonable approximation of what redistricting will look like. There are others, such as California, New York, or Florida, where one guess is as good as any other. For me, New Jersey falls into this latter category. I really have no clue.

New Jersey redistricts by commission. If you think that means they are completely blind to incumbency or partisanship, all it takes is one look at the current map to tell you that you are wrong. NJ has to be one of the ugliest-drawn states.

Since this commission could literally do anything, I took three main philosophies that I wanted to apply to this map and went from there:

1. Create two minority-majority districts in north Jersey.
2. Put Leonard Lance from NJ-07 and Rush Holt from NJ-12 together in a fair fight district with a CPVI as close to even as possible. Due to population losses and the closeness of these two incumbents, I think that only makes sense.
3. Draw incumbent protection maps for everybody else. Not every incumbent can be protected, but a few can be helped.

The result is below.

elucas730

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Wednesday June 29, 2011 · 5:56 PM PDT

2011/06/29 · 17:56

Thanks to Dave and crew for getting election data into DRA. While the Volunteer State won't see the massive changes of an Illinois or North Carolina, there are still some interesting nuances. First and foremost, Republicans have the trifecta here for the first time since Reconstruction.

As I see it, Republicans have two questions they need to answer. The first is what to do with Jim Cooper. Do they give him his own district, or do they try to crack it? The second is, what do they do with Rutherford County? It is no secret that state Sen. Bill Ketron has aspirations for higher office. Rumor is, Republicans would rather have him try and primary Scott DesJarlais in the 4th rather than Diane Black in the 6th, where he currently resides.

I present two maps to answer these questions.

elucas730

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Wednesday June 29, 2011 · 4:28 AM PDT

2011/06/29 · 04:28

This installment of the Wyoming Rule series looks at Ohio, which instead of losing two seats would go up to 21 under the rule.

As shown by the 2008 and 2010 elections, Ohio is currently one of the swingiest states in the country. Republicans gained a full 5 seats in 2010. They now also control the trifecta in the state, and this map reflects that.

Previous diaries:
FL, GA, ID, IN, MI, MN, NV, NM, NY, NC, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA

Current seat count: 88D-150R

elucas730

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Thursday June 23, 2011 · 4:21 AM PDT

2011/06/23 · 04:21

This installment of the Wyoming Rule series looks at Michigan, which instead of losing a seat would go up to 18 under the rule.

Michigan has long been a Democratic stronghold, but much of that strength is concentrated in Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint in the eastern part of the state. This enables Democrats to be packed into a few districts, which Republicans (with the trifecta) no doubt will do. John McCain didn't contest MI in 2008, so many of the districts are more Republican than the Obama/McCain numbers reflect. The CPVIs are probably are better reflection for each district.

Previous diaries:
FL, GA, ID, IN, MN, NV, NM, NY, NC, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA

Current seat count: 82D-138R

elucas730

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Tuesday June 21, 2011 · 5:27 AM PDT

2011/06/21 · 05:27

This installment of the Wyoming Rule series looks at Georgia, a state which would go up to 17 seats while under Republican control.

My first cut at Georgia drew a 13-4 Republican map with 4 AA-majority Democratic districts. This left a couple Republican seats in the 56% McCain range. So I redrew the state and added another AA-majority seat in the Atlanta area. This left me with a 12-5 Republican map (with 5 AA-majority Democratic seats) and the Republican seats are all pretty darn safe.

Previous diaries:
FL, ID, IN, MN, NV, NM, NY, NC, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA

Current seat count: 77D-126R

elucas730

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Monday June 20, 2011 · 12:56 PM PDT

2011/06/20 · 12:56

David posted a little nugget about West Virginia redistricting this morning, and it begs the question, what exactly are the Democratic Party's options in the state?

elucas730

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Friday June 17, 2011 · 11:38 AM PDT

2011/06/17 · 11:38

State lawmakers today unveiled plans for Michigan’s new state House, state Senate and U.S. House districts, maps that could influence elections for the next decade.

The plans, which must still survive committee hearings and a legislative vote, would move all of Calhoun County into Michigan’s Third Congressional District, a seat currently held by Justin Amash, R-Cascade Township. The county would be in the same congressional district as Grand Rapids, if the plan in ultimately adopted.
The state Senate map keeps Calhoun County fully in the 19th District, currently held by Mike Nofs, R-Battle Creek, but instead of also covering territory in Jackson County, the district shifts north to include all of Barry and Ionia counties.

And for the State House, Calhoun County residents would remain in either District 62 or 63, but the districts boundaries change some. Battle Creek would remain in District 62, held by Battle Creek Democrat Kate Segal, and the city of Marshall would remain in District 63, held by Michigan House Speaker Jase Bolger, R-Marshall.

elucas730

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Friday June 17, 2011 · 10:22 AM PDT

2011/06/17 · 10:22

This installment of the Wyoming Rule series looks at two states which will end up having maps drawn by the courts this year, Minnesota and Nevada.

First up is Minnesota. MN would go from 8 to 9 districts under the Wyoming Rule. We already pretty much have a blueprint for how court-ordered redistricting in MN would go, so this map doesn't look too dissimilar from the current map. It maintains the Iron Range/Red River Valley split and ends up with 2 Minneapolis/St. Paul districts and 4 collar districts.

Next is NV, which has already had maps vetoed by Gov. Sandoval. NV would be going up to 5 seats under the Wyoming Rule. First job was to create a Hispanic-influenced district in Las Vegas. LV then ends up with 3 districts with 1 Washoe County based district and the Joe Heck LV-to-Reno district.

Previous diaries:
FL, ID, IN, NM, NC, NY, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA

Current seat count: 69D-120R

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North Carolina Senate redistricting

Republican redraw of NC-01 and NC-12

Wyoming Rule: Tennessee

North Carolina congressional map out

New Jersey redistricting

Tennessee Redistricting

Wyoming Rule: Ohio

Wyoming Rule: Michigan

Wyoming Rule: Georgia

West Virginia redistricting

Michigan redistricting maps unveiled

Wyoming Rule: Court drawn MN & NV