For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.
Three states where redistricting was, on balance, kind to us! In Arizona, the Independent Redistricting Commission drafted a map that could actually make us a majority Democratic delegation. In Colorado, even though Republicans took one house of the legislature, a court picked the Democratic drawn map, which would send two Republican congressmen packing. And in Kansas, where the "moderate" and conservative wings of the state Republican party continue to hate each other, we could end up with a not-terrible map, with one Democratic-leaning district and one we could have an outside chance at! I, of course, tried to take that a little further with my Doubling.
Adopted maps in Arizona and Colorado. Kansas' redistricting process is still ongoing.
Previous Doubling Diaries: AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
Arizona
Arizona gets 18 districts.
The Dem Average is:
- 2008 President
- All statewide races in 2010
A very Republican-heavy sample, so ratings will be provided accordingly.
1
VAP: 37.1 White, 15.4 Hispanic, 42.5 Native
61.6 Obama, 63.2 Dem
Paul Gosar (R-Flagstaff) lives here; Native American plurality. All of the Native American areas of the state, plus Flagstaff. If the current Democratic primary replays itself, then Wenona Benally Baldenegro would have the advantage here, it's much more liberal and heavily Native. Gosar, the rogue dentist, who is already moving to Prescott to avoid oblivion, moves to the 3rd. Safe D, Native opportunity
2
VAP: 83.6 W, 11.4 H
33.9 Obama, 31.6 Dem
Open. Vast Republican nothingness, the most Republican in the state in fact. 1 of exactly 4 districts that doesn't enter Maricopa County at all. Safe R
3
VAP: 87 W, 7.6 H
34.8 Obama, 31.2 Dem
Open. Prescott and northern Maricopa County. Paul Gosar, who is already moving to Prescott for the current 2012 elections, will run here. And without Paul Babeu running, since this doesn't take in Pinal County at all, scandal or no, he can probably get by just fine here. Safe R
4
VAP: 78.3 W, 15.5 H
36.9 Obama, 35.7 Dem
Open. Parts of Maricopa, Gila and Pinal Counties, including a small slice of the city of Mesa. This is probably where Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu would run, if he's still delusional enough to run for Congress as a power-abusing closet case. Regardless, whatever Republican makes it out the primary will be fine here. Safe R
14
VAP: 59.1 W, 5.2 Black, 30.3 H
41.3 Obama, 39.2 Dem
Open. Maricopa and Pinal Counties, including the cities of Casa Grande and Avondale. The Hispanic population is exploding, so maybe this could be within reach for us within a decade. Safe R, for now
15
VAP: 38.4 W, 54.7 H
50.4 Obama, 50.8 Dem
Open; majority Hispanic. Basically the border district, based in Yuma County. This loses the heavily Hispanic and Democratic parts of Tuscon that made this district a sure thing for Raúl Grijalva. He wouldn't run here anyway, he'd be much more at home in the Hispanic-influence district in Tuscon. Maybe former State Senator Amanda Aguirre would run here. Adjusting for the 2010 elections and McCain's home state effect in 2008, this is Lean D, Hispanic pickup
17
VAP: 73.6 W, 19.9 H
38.6 Obama, 38.1 Dem
Open. Southeast corner of the state, Republican vote sink. Mostly based in Pima County, but Cochise being the only whole county represented, a countywide official could do well in a Republican primary. Safe R
Phoenix
5
VAP: 22.4 W, 11.6 B, 60.1 H
70.1 Obama, 72 Dem
Open; supermajority Hispanic. Phoenix. Ed Pastor, whose voting district literally borders this district, would run here. It's even safer for him than his current district, not that he needed it. Safe D, Hispanic hold
6
VAP: 31.2 W, 5.9 B, 57.9 H
55.5 Obama, 57.5 Dem
Open; majority Hispanic. Mostly Phoenix, but parts of Glendale and Peoria. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
7
VAP: 66.4 W, 18.6 H, 6.3 A
51.5 Obama, 49.5 Dem
Open. Mostly Tempe, but parts of Phoenix and Chandler. This represents, politically, the new AZ-09. This is probably where State Senate Minority Leader David Schapira (D-Tempe) would run. Lean D
8
VAP: 75.9 W, 12.1 H, 6.7 Asian
37.5 Obama, 34.6 Dem
Open. Gilbert and Chandler. Safe R
9
VAP: 64.1 W, 25.7 H
41.7 Obama, 40.1 Dem
Open; Jeff Flake (R-Mesa) is running for Senate. Mesa, as well as small parts of Tempe, Gilbert and Phoenix. I don't even know who's running to replace Flake, but they'll be fine here. Safe R
10
VAP: 63 W, 25 H
53.8 Obama, 52.9 Dem
Ed Pastor (D-Phoenix) and Ben Quayle (R-Phoenix) both live here, but Pastor runs in the 5th, as I've pointed out, and Quayle probably runs in either the 11th or the 12th. Phoenix, as well a piece of Scottsdale and a tiny slice of Glendale. With the Tempe-based 7th dominated by Tempe State Senator David Schapira, this is where Kyrsten Sinema and Andrei Cherny would duke it out. Adjusting for the lean of the numbers, whoever makes it out of the Democratic primary would probably be favored in the general election. Likely D
11
VAP: 83.3 W, 9.9 H
41.5 Obama, 38.9 Dem
David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) lives here. Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale and Fountain Hills. Ben Quayle could run here, but would probably instead go for the 12th, where there is no incumbent. Schweikert will do just fine. Safe R
12
VAP: 71.4 W, 18.2 H
39.5 Obama, 38.7 Dem
Open. Phoenix, Glendale and Peoria. As I said, this is probably where Quayle runs. Safe R
13
VAP: 74.3 W, 16.7 H
39.5 Obama, 37.5 Dem
Trent Franks (R-Peoria) lives here. Maricopa County remainders, including the city of SURPRISE! Franks, the dumbfuck that he is, will do just fine. Safe R
Tucson
16
VAP: 42.8 W, 47.3 H
61.1 Obama, 62 Dem
Raúl Grijalva (D-Tucson) lives here; plurality Hispanic. The Hispanic half of Tucson. Already majority Hispanic by total population, it will be VAP majority any minute. The Co-Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus gets safer. Safe D, Hispanic hold
18
VAP: 74.5 W, 15.8 H
52.5 Obama, 51.1 Dem
Open; Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson) resigned in January. Tucson. More Democratic than the current AZ-08, whoever carries Giffords' torch would probably easily prevail in the general election.Likely D
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So, the current 3-5 delegation (counting Giffords' open seat as a Democratic seat based on the the last election), this new 18-district map under Doubling ends up as an 8-10 map, with two new Hispanic members joining Pastor and Grijalva, as well as a very good chance for a new Native American representative. A very fair map.
Colorado
Colorado gets 14 districts.
The Dem average is "All 2010 statewide races". Current Governor John Hickenlooper won in a 3-way race in 2010 with a small majority, but two Democratic statewide officials (SoS and Tresurer) lost re-election and the Republican Attorney General won comfortably, so the numbers are relatively Republican-leaning.
Denver area
1
VAP: 32.1 W, 14.7 B, 47.3 H
80.4 Obama, 77.1 Dem
Open; plurality Hispanic. Denver, as well as small parts of Adams and Arapahoe Counties. Hispanics would dominate the Democratic primary, and in a district this blue, that gives them the election. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
2
VAP: 75.8 W, 6.9 B, 11.3 H
70.9 Obama, 66.7 Dem
Diana DeGette (D-Denver) lives here. The other half of Denver, plus part of Arapahoe County, including Englewood and Cherry Hills Village. DeGette loses some safety that she didn't need. Safe D
3
VAP: 77.2 W, 16.8 H
56.7 Obama, 51.3 Dem
Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) lives here. Two small parts of Denver and Jefferson County, dominated by the city of Lakewood. Perlmutter now has a district slightly less safe than his current one, but he has performed very well in his current district. Safe D with Perlmutter
4
VAP: 72.4 W, 8.2 B, 12.1 H, 5.2 A
53.9 Obama, 47.4 Dem
Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) lives here. Aurora and Centennial. Almost identical, politically, to the new CO-06, Coffman is still in trouble. State Rep. Joe Miklosi would probably run here, and give Coffman the run of his life. A 10-point swing from McCain to Obama, archconservative Coffman likely won't survive. Lean D
5
VAP: 77.3 W, 21.3 H
55.9 Obama, 49.5 Dem
Open. Swingy portions of Jefferson and Adams Counties. Without any obvious candidates springing to mind, and given the numbers, I'll say Lean D
12
VAP: 79.2 W, 16.1 H
54.8 Obama, 48.1 Dem
Open. Fort Collins and Greeley, in Larimer and Weld Counties. Former Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Fort Collins) if she wanted to run for Congress again, would fit this district very well. Likely D with Markey, Lean D otherwise
13
VAP: 73.7 W, 19.8 H
53.2 Obama, 46.2 Dem
Open. The bridge from Denver metro to Fort Collins, this crosses 5 counties, with no major cities, except part of Broomfield. The large disparity between Obama's and Dem's performance makes me want to call this Swing
14
VAP: 76.9 W, 12.3 H, 5.1 A
46.7 Obama, 39.6 Dem
Open. The Republican vote sink of Denver metro. Mike Coffman may want to parachute to this district to survive. Safe R
Statewide
6
VAP: 67.3 W, 27.9 H
54.4 Obama, 51.2 Dem
Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) lives here. The southwestern corner of the state. State House Minority Leader Sal Pace (D-Pueblo) who is already running for the current CO-03, would like this district even better than the current one, which is 48.5% Obama. Tipton, the RSC member who barely won his current 47% Obama, district, would likely be doomed. Likely D
7
VAP: 83.5 W, 12.5 H
60 Obama, 54.6 Dem
Jared Polis (D-Boulder) lives here. Boulder and the liberal ski communities. Polis, the first Congressman who was openly gay at the time of his election, loses 4 points of safety that he didn't need. Safe D
8
VAP: 83.8 W, 11.4 H
55.6 Obama, 52.4 Dem
Open. Grand Junction through the ski areas to the Boulder metro, as well as half of Broomfield. State Senate President Brandon Shaffer (D-Longmont), who is currently on a likely suicide mission in the current CO-04, would jump at the chance to run here. Likely D
9
VAP: 79.3 W, 11.7 H
43.8 Obama, 39.4 Dem
Open. Part of Colorado Springs and into the southwest. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) lives just outside of the district in the 10th, where the other part of Colorado Springs is, could choose to run in either district, it doesn't matter much. Scott Tipton could choose to run here to avoid oblivion. Safe R
10
VAP: 74.6 W, 6.2 B, 12.4 H
35.1 Obama, 29.1 Dem
Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) lives here. Colorado Springs and east. See above, Lamborn could choose to run in either the 9th or 10th. The worst district in the state for the Dem average Safe R
11
VAP: 81.6 W, 14.3 H
35 Obama, 31.1 Dem
Cory Gardner (R-Yuma) lives here. The eastern third of the state. The worst district in the state for the President, Gardner would not mind this district at all. Safe R
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So, with a current delegation that is 3-4, and a new map that could likely be called 3-2-2, this 14-district map goes is, by my measure, 9-4-1. Every Republican gets a district they could conceivably run in, and there's a new Hispanic district in the Denver area. If Republicans hadn't taken the state House, Democrats could have made a very effective gerrymander along these lines sigh
Kansas
Kansas gets 8 districts.
Statewide
1
VAP: 80.7 W, 16 H
25 Obama
Tim Huelskamp (R-Fowler) lives here. About half of the state's land area. Huelskamp, who represents probably 100% of this territory, will be fine. Safe R
2
VAP: 68.1 W, 11.4 B, 12.6 H, 5 A
48.8 Obama
Mike Pompeo (R-Wichita) lives here. Basically, just the city of Wichita. McCain won this district by less than 1000 votes. Mike Pompeo, who may be vulnerable in a primary on account of every Republican on Earth hates him, could also be vulnerable in such a close district in a non-Republican wave year. State Rep Raj Goyle (D), who despite his obviously foreign name in a state like Kansas was a very strong recruit, could try again. Swing
3
VAP: 90.6 W
33.1 Obama
Open. The area surrounding Wichita. Not much else to say. Safe R
4
VAP: 88.5 W, 5.1 H
36.9 Obama
Open. The southeast corner of the state. Cities of note include Emporia and Salina. Safe R
8
VAP: 92.4 W
35 Obama
Open. Northeast Kansas. Lynn Jenkins, the Great White Dope, may want to "carpetbag" here as her new home district of the 5 has become inhospitable. Safe R
Topeka to Kansas City
5
VAP: 79 W, 7.5 B, 7.2 H
56.3 Obama
Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka) lives here, but like I mentioned above she would run in the neighboring 8th to survive. This is the most egregiously gerrymandered district of this entire diary, and I love it. It picks up all the Democratic areas between Junction City and Lawrence. We probably wouldn't want former Rep. Nancy Boyda to run here, since she was allergic to fundraising. But any half-decent Democrat would have no trouble at all winning here. Safe D
6
VAP: 67.9 W, 14.1 B, 13.4 H
58.3 Obama
Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park) lives here, but would probably parachute to the 7th, this district is too blue. Kansas City, Overland Park and crawls up the eastern border of the state to Leavenworth and St. Joseph. No Democrat in Kansas would have an excuse losing this district. Safe D
7
VAP: 84.7 W, 5.2 H
41.4 Obama
Open, but Kevin Yoder probably runs here. Kansas City metro district, centered around Olathe. Safe R
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So, the current Kansas delegation is 0-4, with one barely-Democratic district and another that only elected a Democrat once in a perfect storm. This map, on the other hand, is 2-5-1, with the two Dem districts being sure things, and one very competitive district. A great improvement.
These three states together are 19-19-2, bringing the House as a whole so far to 276-207-46.
Please comment!
Next up, New York!