I guess with the Republicans still in control of the governor's mansion and the legislature, we should call this state "Bitchigan"... but I don't want to offend any Michiganders who read DK.
Previous states, in publishing order: ND/SD, AK/DE/ME/NH, HI/ID/NE, WV/NM/NV, UT/KS/WV, MS/IA, CT/OK/OR, KY, SC, LA, AL, CO, MN, WI, MD, MO, TN, AZ, IN, MA, WA, VA, NJ, NC, GA
With so much information to cover, I've decided to do Michigan in two parts. Today, I'll try to max out the Democratic gains with gerrymandering. Next week, I'll do the "good government" map.
1st District (blue): Open. Northeastern Wayne County and eastern Macomb County. 71.6% Obama. 52% Black. Hansen Clarke (D-East Detroit) lost his seat after the 2010 redistricting. He could return to Congress here, but he would almost certainly face at least one African-American candidate in the primary. Safe D no matter who the nominees are.
2d District (green): John Conyers (D-Detroit). Downtown Detroit, Highland Park, Inkster, and Romulus. 85.5% Obama, the bluest district in this map. 50% Black. Safe D.
3d District (purple): Open. All of Monroe County and southern Wayne County. 56.5% Obama. Lean D.
4th District (red): Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn). Dearborn, Canton, and the northern Ann Arbor suburbs. 56.8% Obama. Safe D.
5th District (gold): Open. Livonia, Farmington Hills, and Novi. 52.7% Obama. I regret drawing this district because accidental ex-congressman Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford) lives here and could stumble back into Congress. Tossup.
6th District (teal): Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak) and Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield). North central Detroit, Royal Oak, Southfield, and Ferndale. 85.2% Obama. 63.9% Black. Although Levin has the tenure, Lawrence has the geography and the demographics in her favor. Levin would likely retire. Safe D.
7th District (dark gray): Mike Bishop (R-Rochester) and Dave Trott (R-Birmingham). Pontiac, Auburn Hills, and Troy. 55.1% Obama. Don't know who would emerge from the Republican primary, since neither incumbent is entrenched. Both were just elected this past November. But whoever wins the primary would likely lose the general. Lean D.
8th District (slate blue): Open. Sterling Heights, Warren, and Madison Heights. 53.6% Obama. Tossup.
9th District (cyan): Open. Roseville and Port Huron. 53.2% Obama. Tossup.
10th District (deep pink): Open. "The Thumb", Lapeer, the northern Flint suburbs, and the Saginaw suburbs. 55.9% Obama. Lean D.
11th District (chartreuse): Dan Kildee (D-Flint). Flint and northern Oakland County. 53.6% Obama. Kildee is a bit conservative--particularly for his current House district--so he should be fine here. Safe D.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open. This district starts in Ann Arbor and meanders north to Howell and Mason. 59.6% Obama. Safe D.
13th District (dark salmon): Tim Walberg (R-Tipton). Ypsilanti, Jackson, and Marshall. 52.2% Obama. Walberg's district moves two points to the left. With presidential turnout, 2014 challenger Pam Byrnes (D-Ypsilanti) has a chance for a victory. Tossup.
14th District (olive): Open. Lansing, Battle Creek, Portage, and Sturgis. 60.2% Obama. Bishop's 2014 opponent, Eric Schertzing (D-Lansing), has a clear path to Congress here. Safe D.
15th District (dark orange): Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). Kalamazoo and St. Joseph. 56.6% Obama. Upton has survived a lot of close elections since 1986, but he'll be gone in 2016 in a district like this. He may just hang it up altogether. Tossup with Upton, Lean D without Upton.
16th District (lime): Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland). Holland, Muskegon, and Ludington. 52.6% Obama. Huizenga could take a chance here or head out to the new 18th District and challenge Justin Amash. Tossup.
17th District (dark slate blue): Open. Grand Rapids, White Cloud, and Big Rapids. 56.8% Obama. If anybody has been wondering how to turn Grand Rapids into a blue district, this is one way to do it. Lean D.
18th District (yellow): Justin Amash (R-Cascade Twp) and/or Huizenga. The deep red Grand Rapids suburbs. 62% McCain, the only actual red district in this map. Safe R no matter who wins the Republican primary.
19th District (yellow green): Open. Lansing suburbs, Ionia, and Alma. 52% Obama. Tossup.
20th District (pink): Open. Saginaw, Cadillac, and Midland's suburbs. 54.4% Obama. Lean D.
21st District (maroon): John Moooooooooooolenaaaaaaaaaaaar (R-Midland). Midland, Bay City, Alpena, and Traverse City. All of these parts of Michigan really do not belong together, but I had to squeeze a light-blue district out of the northern part of the Lower Peninsula. 51.7% Obama. Tossup.
22d District (sienna): Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls). Traverse City suburbs and the entire U.P. 49.8% Obama. Since this part of the state has started to eschew Democrats on a federal level, this district is Lean R.
So, at worst, the Democrats would have a 14-8 advantage in the Wolverine State. At best, 20-2. I'd call that a win, no matter how those six purple seats swing.
24 Electoral Votes: Lean D.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI (part), MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 127 (added MI-1, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-11, MI-12, MI-14)
Lean D: 70 (added MI-3, MI-7, MI-10, MI-15, MI-17, MI-20)
Tossup: 32 (added MI-5, MI-8, MI-9, MI-13, MI-16, MI-19, MI-21)
Lean R: 8 (added MI-22)
Safe R: 137 (added MI-18)
Total: 197 D, 32 Toss, 145 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 115
Lean D: 39
Tossup: 45
Lean R: 11
Safe R: 142
Total: 154 D, 45 Toss, 153 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), VA (20), WI (14) = 103
Tossup: CO (13), GA (23), MO (15), NC (23), NE (1) = 75
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 212 D, 75 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), WI (14) = 66
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NC (23), NV (8), VA (20) = 88
Lean R: AZ (16), GA (23), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 72
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 175 D, 88 Toss, 197 R