Redistrictive Jiggery-Pokery: Buckeye Edition
Previous states, in publishing order: ND/SD, AK/DE/ME/NH, HI/ID/NE, WV/NM/NV, UT/KS/WV, MS/IA, CT/OK/OR, KY, SC, LA, AL, CO, MN, WI, MD, MO, TN, AZ, IN, MA, WA, VA, NJ, NC, GA, MI (Part I), MI (Part II)
Ohio gerrymandered the other way:
1st District (blue): Open. Cincinnati and northeastern Hamilton County. 64.8% Obama. Cincinnati has two representatives--Steve Chabot (R) and Brad Wenstrup (R)--but neither one will dare run here. Safe D.
2d District (green): John Boehner (R-West Chester) and Chabot. Western Hamilton County, most of Butler County, all of Preble County, and northern Montgomery County. 66.8% McCain. I doubt that Chabot would want to be in a primary with The Boner, so Chabot would likely retire. Safe R.
3d District (purple): Probably open. Baconmander that connects northern Cincinnati (my area), Hamilton, Middletown, and most of Dayton. 54% Obama. Although Mike Turner (D-Dayton) may live here, he would likely run in the 4th. Lean D.
4th District (red): Probably Turner. Dayton, Xenia, and Springfield. 51.1% Obama. Turner won't be happy running here, but he would have a better chance of winning here than in the 3d. Tossup.
5th District (gold): Jim Jordan (R-Urbana). Republican vote sink between Dayton, Columbus, and Lima. Includes the cities of Urbana, Troy, Bellefontaine, and Marysville. 63.1% McCain. Safe R.
6th District (teal): Open. Lebanon to Lancaster, then down to the northern part of Portsmouth. 62.7% McCain. Safe R.
7th District (dark gray): Brad Wenstrup (R-Cincinnati). Eastern Cincinnati, Mason, Batavia, and West Union. 63.6% McCain. Safe R.
8th District (slate blue): Open. This one snakes through Chillicothe, Portsmouth, Athens, Zanesville, and Newark. 50.5% Obama. Ancestrally Democratic. Lean D.
9th District (cyan): Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) and Pat Tiberi (R-Galena). Modern art district. Jackson, Marietta, Coshocton, the suburbs of Cambridge and Newark, and most of Delaware County. 60.5% McCain. No idea who would win this primary, but Safe R regardless.
10th District (deep pink): Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus). The eastern half of Columbus within I-270, plus a few northern suburbs. 70.5% Obama. 50.5% minority-majority. Safe D.
11th District (chartreuse): Steve Stivers (R-Columbus). Southwestern Columbus and most of the Columbus suburbs. 51.7% Obama. Stivers is vulnerable here. He's equally vulnerable if he tries to run in the 12th. Tossup.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open or Stivers. Northwestern Columbus, Delaware, Marion, Upper Sandusky, and Mansfield. 51.7% Obama. Tossup.
13th District (dark salmon): Bob Gibbs (R-Lakeville) and Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth). Marion, Mount Vernon, Ashland, Wooster, Medina, and Richfield. 57.4% McCain. Safe R no matters who gets the Republican nomination.
14th District (olive): Open. Cambridge, Steubenville, New Philadelphia, East Liverpool, and Alliance. 50% Obama. Ancestrally Democratic. If either John Boccieri (D-Alliance) or Zack Space (D-Dover) wanted to return to Congress, they could take a chance here. Lean D.
15th District (dark orange): Open. Canton, Massillon, and Barberton. 53.1% Obama. Lean D.
16th District (lime): Open. Akron, North Royalton, and Brunswick. 57% Obama. A good district for former representative Betty Sutton (D-Copley) to make a comeback. Safe D.
17th District (dark slate blue): Open or Tim Ryan (D-Niles). Youngstown, Columbiana, Salem, Kent, and Ravenna. 56.5% Obama. Although Ryan doesn't actually live here, he could move here in order to avoid the purple 18th with a Republican incumbent. Safe D with Ryan, Lean D without Ryan.
18th District (yellow): David Joyce (R-Russell Twp). Ashtabula, Chardon, Warren, and Niles. 52.9% Obama. Joyce is vulnerable with or without Ryan in this district. If Ryan is feeling lucky, he could stay in Niles and take a shot at knocking off Joyce. If Ryan succeeds, that's an extra Democrat in the Ohio delegation. Since we're playing "best case scenario", we'll say that Ryan runs here and wins. Lean D with Ryan, Tossup without Ryan.
19th District (yellow green): Open. Baconmander that runs along the shoreline of Lake County and through the Cleveland suburbs. 57.2% Obama. Safe D.
20th District (pink): Marcia Fudge (D-Cleveland). Eastern Cleveland. 87.2% Obama. 62.1% Black. If this district is considered "packing" and violates the VRA, you could always swap some precincts with the 21st in order to bring the African-America VAP down to 50%. But this is all fantasy, anyway. Safe D.
21st District (maroon): Open. Western Cleveland. 59.6% Obama. Safe D.
22d District (sienna): Open. Lorain, Elyria, Sandusky, Norwalk, and Fremont. 57.2% Obama. Safe D.
23d District (aquamarine): Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Toledo down to the Mansfield suburbs. 58.3% Obama. Safe D.
24th District (indigo): Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green). Western Toledo suburbs with tendrils in Findlay, Lima, Napoleon, and Defiance. 52.7% Obama. Latta could gamble here, retire, or carpetbag to the 25th. Tossup.
25th District (pale violet red): Open or Latta. Western Republican vote sink. Greenville, Celina, Wapakoneta, Kenton, Ottawa, and Bryan. 64.2% McCain. Safe R.
Republicans can't win more than 11 of these 25 seats in a normal election year. In a Republican wave, they may get up to 16.
27 Electoral Votes: Major-league Tossup until the end of time.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH (part), OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 135 (added OH-1, OH-10, OH-16, OH-19, OH-20, OH-21, OH-22, OH-23)
Lean D: 76 (added OH-3, OH-8, OH-14, OH-15, OH-17, OH-18)
Tossup: 36 (added OH-4, OH-11, OH-12, OH-24)
Lean R: 8
Safe R: 144 (added OH-2, OH-5, OH-6, OH-7, OH-9, OH-13, OH-25)
Total: 211 D, 36 Toss, 152 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 122
Lean D: 42
Tossup: 52
Lean R: 14
Safe R: 144
Total: 164 D, 52 Toss, 158 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), VA (20), WI (14) = 103
Tossup: CO (13), GA (23), MO (15), NC (23), NE (1), OH (27) = 102
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 212 D, 102 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), WI (14) = 66
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NC (23), NV (8), OH (27), VA (20) = 115
Lean R: AZ (16), GA (23), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 72
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 175 D, 115 Toss, 197 R