Ohio: Now with less jiggery-pokery!
I'm pressing forward with this map because I will be on vacation with my kids next week in New Orleans and Fort Walton Beach.
Previous states, in publishing order: ND/SD, AK/DE/ME/NH, HI/ID/NE, WV/NM/NV, UT/KS/WV, MS/IA, CT/OK/OR, KY, SC, LA, AL, CO, MN, WI, MD, MO, TN, AZ, IN, MA, WA, VA, NJ, NC, GA, MI (Part I), MI (Part II), OH (Part I)
As promised, here's the "good government" map of Ohio:
1st District (blue): Open. Cincinnati and north central Hamilton County. My area! 66% Obama. Steve Chabot (R) and Brad Wenstrup (R) won't touch this one. Safe D.
2d District (green): John Boehner (R-West Chester) and Chabot. Western Hamilton County and all of Butler County. 63.8% McCain. Chabot will retire and The Boner will remain in Congress. Safe R.
3d District (purple): Wenstrup. Eastern Hamilton County, all of Clermont County, and parts of Mason in Warren County. 60.4% McCain. Safe R.
4th District (red): Open. Lebanon to Portsmouth. 62.6% McCain. Safe R.
5th District (gold): Open. Dayton. 55.5% Obama. Mike Turner (R-Dayton) will not play in this field. Lean D.
6th District (teal): Likely Turner. Western and northern Dayton suburbs, Troy, Sidney, Wapakoneta, and Van Wert. 65.9% McCain. Most of this district is unfamiliar terrain to Turner, as most of these counties are in Boner's current district, but he really has no choice. He won't carpetbag to the 7th because there's an incumbent there. Safe R no matter what.
7th District (dark gray): Jim Jordan (R-Urbana). Springfield, Urbana, and Marysville. 56.9% Obama. Safe R.
8th District (slate blue): Open. Northwestern quadrant of Columbus. 55.3% Obama. Lean D.
9th District (cyan): Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus). Northeastern quadrant of Columbus. 68.4% Obama. Narrow white majority, but it shouldn't affect her too much in a hypothetical primary. Safe D.
10th District (deep pink): Steve Stivers (R-Columbus). Southern Columbus, Lancaster, and Circleville. 52.8% McCain. Safe R.
11th District (chartreuse): Bob Gibbs (R-Lakeville) and Pat Tiberi (R-Galena). Delaware, Newark, Coshocton, and Mount Vernon. 58.6% McCain. Again, I have no idea who would win the Republican primary, but this is still Safe R.
12th District (cornflower blue): Bill Johnson (R-Marietta). Chillicothe, Jackson, Athens, and Marietta. 51.5% McCain. Ancestrally Democratic. Tossup.
13th District (dark salmon): Open. Zanesville, Steubenville, New Philadelphia, and some Canton suburbs. 49.5% McCain plurality. Ancestrally Democratic. Zack Space (D-Dover) could try a run here if he's not doing anything else. Tossup.
14th District (olive): Tim Ryan (D-Niles). Youngstown and Niles. 58.2% Obama. Safe D.
15th District (dark orange): Open. Canton, Massillon, Alliance, and Barberton. 51.8% Obama. John Boccieri (D-Alliance) could try this one. Tossup.
16th District (lime): Open. Akron, Aurora, and Streetsboro. 58.7% Obama. Betty Sutton (D-Copley) would be the heavy favorite here. Safe D.
17th District (dark slate blue): David Joyce (R-Russell Twp). Ashtabula, Painesville, Chardon, Warren, Kent, and Ravenna. 53.1% Obama. Joyce is hugely vulnerable in 2016, but he has nowhere else to run. Tossup.
18th District (yellow): Open. Western Lake County and eastern Cuyahoga County. 64.9% Obama. Safe D.
19th District (yellow green): Marcia Fudge (D-Cleveland). Cleveland and Euclid. 81.5% Obama. 50.8% African-American. Safe D.
20th District (pink): Open. Western Cleveland, southern Cuyahoga County, and northern Medina County. 55.9% Obama. Lean D.
21st District (maroon): Open. Western Cuyahoga County, all of Lorain County, and Huron. 55.4% Obama. Lean D.
22d District (sienna): Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth). Medina, Wooster, Ashland, Mansfield, and Norwalk. 55.3% McCain. Safe R.
23d District (aquamarine): Open. Lima, Findlay, Marion, and Bellefontaine. 59.1% McCain. Safe R.
24th District (indigo): Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green). Sandusky, Fremont, Tiffin, Bowling Green, and Defiance. 50.5% Obama. Latta might be too conservative for this district, but he has nowhere else to go. Tossup.
25th District (pale violet red): Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). All of Lucas County and a few precincts of Wood County. 64% Obama. Safe D.
Democrats would start out with a 11-9 lead. With five swing districts, Republicans would max out at only 14 with this map. In a good year, the Democrats can take 16.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 135
Lean D: 76
Tossup: 36
Lean R: 8
Safe R: 144
Total: 211 D, 36 Toss, 152 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 129 (added OH-1, OH-9, OH-14, OH-16, OH-18, OH-19, OH-25)
Lean D: 46 (added OH-5, OH-8, OH-20, OH-21)
Tossup: 57 (added OH-12, OH-13, OH-15, OH-17, OH-24)
Lean R: 14
Safe R: 153 (added OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-6, OH-7, OH-10, OH-11, OH-22, OH-23)
Total: 175 D, 57 Toss, 167 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), VA (20), WI (14) = 103
Tossup: CO (13), GA (23), MO (15), NC (23), NE (1), OH (27) = 102
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 212 D, 102 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), WI (14) = 66
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NC (23), NV (8), OH (27), VA (20) = 115
Lean R: AZ (16), GA (23), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 72
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 175 D, 115 Toss, 197 R