Alternate title for this week's report: "Let's Give Governor Cuomo Conniptions Because We're Not Being Pro-Republican!"
Previous states, in publishing order: ND/SD, AK/DE/ME/NH, HI/ID/NE, WV/NM/NV, UT/KS/WV, MS/IA, CT/OK/OR, KY, SC, LA, AL, CO, MN, WI, MD, MO, TN, AZ, IN, MA, WA, VA, NJ, NC, GA, MI (Part I), MI (Part II), OH (Part I), OH (Part II), PA, IL, FL
1st District (blue): Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley). Eastern Long Island, including The Hamptons and Montauk. 53.1% Obama. Tossup.
2d District (green): Open. Fire Island, Medford, and West Islip. 53.6% Obama. Tossup.
3d District (purple): Steve Israel (D-Dix Hills). The rest of Suffolk County, including Commack and Smithtown. 52.5% Obama. Right in line with Israel's current district, so Lean D.
4th District (red): Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City). Massapequa, Levittown, Hicksville, and Garden City. 52.9% Obama. Probably more conservative than Rice would like, but she won this open seat against last year's Republican wave by 6 points. Lean D.
5th District (gold): Xenophobic gasbag Peter King (R-Seaford). Lindenhurst, Freeport, and Long Beach. 53% Obama. One point more liberal than his current district. In a presidential year, the citizen may finally decide that they've had enough of this assclown. Tossup.
6th District (teal): Open. Rockville Center, Franklin Square, Glen Cove, and Bayville. 54.2% Obama. Tossup.
7th District (dark gray): Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn). Flatbush, Canarsie, Breezy Point, and JFK International Airport. 85.8% Obama. 62.8% Black. Safe D.
8th District (slate blue): Open. Bensonhurst, Coney Island, Bergen Beach, and South Slope. 63.3% Obama. Safe D.
9th District (cyan): Daniel Donovan (R-Great Kills), who just recently won this seat to replace convicted felon Michael Grimm. Southeastern Staten Island, Marine Park, and Borough Park. 65.3% McCain. Safe R.
10th District (deep pink): Open. The rest of Staten Island and Dyker Heights. 52.2% Obama. With all of the conservative parts of Staten Island in the 9th, Democrats finally have a chance to represent Staten Island. Tossup.
11th District (chartreuse): Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn). The East River shore of Brooklyn. 87.4% Obama. 51.2% racial clusterfuck. Safe D.
12th District (cornflower blue): Hakeem Jeffries (D-Prospect Heights). Bedford-Stuyvesant and Crown Heights. 96.7% Obama, tied with my new IL-3 for the bluest cube root district in America. 75.2% Black. Although Prospect Heights is actually in the 11th District, Jeffries would never run against Velazquez. He would move here. Safe D.
13th District (dark salmon): Open. East New York, Ridgewood, and Williamsburg. 89.9% Obama. 50.8% Hispanic. Safe D.
14th District (olive): Joseph Crowley (D-Queens). Woodside, Maspeth, Elmhurst, Forest Hills, and Ozone Park. 65.3% Obama. 53.2% Hispanic/Asian majority, which means that Crowley would attract at least one primary challenger. Safe D no matter who emerges from the primary.
15th District (dark orange): Open. Hunters Point, Long Island City, Jackson Heights, and Corona. 81.5% Obama. 50.6% Hispanic. Safe D.
16th District (lime): Grace Meng (D-Queens). Astoria, Whitestone, Flushing Meadows, and Hill Crest. 64.3% Obama. 55.7% Asian/Hispanic majority. Safe D.
17th District (dark slate blue): Gregory Meeks (D-Queens). Jamaica, Hollis, and Rosedale. 94% Obama. 59.3% Black. Safe D.
18th District (yellow): Open. Bayside, Great Neck, Manhasset, and South Bronx. 73.2% Obama. 57.3% Hispanic/Black. Safe D.
19th District (yellow green): Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan). The western shore of Manhattan Island. Includes Wall Street, Tribeca, and Greenwich Village. 85.5% Obama. Safe D.
20th District (pink): Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan). The eastern shore of Manhattan Island. 77.8% Obama. Safe D.
21st District (maroon): Open. Central Park and Harlem. 92.7% Obama. 66.8% Hispanic/Black. Would have been Charlie Rangel's new district, but he's retiring. This would go to his successor. Safe D.
22d District (sienna): Open. Washington Heights and West Bronx. 87% Obama. 61% Hispanic. Safe D.
23d District (aquamarine): Jose Serrano (D-Bronx). Central Bronx. 94.8% Obama. 63.1% Hispanic and 30.6% Black. Another one of my districts that would probably end up in court. Safe D.
24th District (indigo): Eliot Engel (D-Bronx). The rest of the Bronx up to Mount Vernon and Homefield. 78.1% Obama. 67.7% Black/Hispanic, which means that Engel will get a primary challenger or two. Safe D regardless.
25th District (pale violet red): Nita Lowey (D-Harrison). New Rochelle, Port Chester, and White Plains. 64.7% Obama. Safe D.
26th District (gray): Open. Yonkers, Ossining, Peekskill, and far eastern Putnam County. 62.9% Obama. Safe D.
27th District (spring green): Sean Maloney (D-Cold Spring). Nyack, Newburgh, and the rest of Putnam County. 52.6% Obama. Right in line with his current district, so Lean D.
28th District (plum): Open. Middletown and Poughkeepsie. 53.4% Obama. Tossup.
29th District (dark sea green): Open. Kingston, Fallsburg, Hudson, and Beekman. 54% Obama. Would have been Chris Gibson's new district, but he's retiring, presumably to run for governor in 2018. Without the incumbent there, it's a Tossup.
30th District (light coral): Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam). Albany, Rotterdam, Amsterdam, and Middleburgh. 58% Obama. Safe D.
31st District (khaki): Open. Schenectady, Troy, and Saratoga Springs. 53.6% Obama. Tossup.
32d District (orange red): Elise Stefanik (R-Willsboro). Johnstown, Hudson Falls, Plattsburgh, and Ogdensburg. 54% Obama. A couple of points to the left of her current district, so she's in big trouble in 2016. Tossup.
33d District (royal blue): Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld). Watertown, Rome, and Utica. 52.4% McCain. Safe R.
34th District (lime green): Open. Binghamton, Oneida, Cooperstown, and Monticello. 51.6% Obama. Tossup.
35th District (dark orchid): John Katko (R-Camillus). Syracuse. 59.4% Obama. Katko is dead in the water unless he carpetbags. Safe D.
36th District (orange): Open. Oswego, Auburn, Cortland, Ithaca, and Watkins Glen. 53.8% Obama. Tossup.
37th District (dodger blue): Tom Reed (R-Corning). Rochester, Corning, and Elmira. 52.7% Obama. Tossup.
38th District (medium aquamarine): Louise Slaughter (D-Fairport). Northern Rochester and Canandaigua. 52.9% Obama. Lean D.
39th District (moccasin): Open. Western Rochester to Niagara Falls. 53.6% Obama. Tossup.
40th District (firebrick): Open. Buffalo, Amherst, Lockport, and Batavia. 56.4% Obama. Lean D.
41st District (light steel blue): Chris Collins (R-Clarence). Eastern Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Hamburg, and Warsaw. 53.1% Obama. Tossup.
42d District (lawn green): Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo). Southern Buffalo, Jamestown, and Olean. 52.7% Obama. Tossup.
44 Electoral Votes: Safe D.
Those western New York districts are a bit strange, so here's a cleaner map of the Buffalo/Rochester areas:
Buffalo is split between three districts instead of four and Rochester is split between two districts instead of three.
37th District (dodger blue): Reed. Canandaigua, Corning, and Elmira. 54.2% McCain. Safe R.
38th District (medium aquamarine): Slaughter. Eastern Rochester. 56.3% Obama. Safe D.
39th District (moccasin): Open. Western Rochester. 55.5% Obama. Lean D.
40th District (firebrick): Open. Buffalo, Amherst, Niagara Falls, and Lockport. 57.2% Obama. Safe D.
41st District (light steel blue): Collins and Higgins get forced into the same district. Buffalo, Cheektowaga, and Batavia. 59.1% Obama. Collins is gone unless he carpetbags to another district. Higgins is good as gold. Safe D.
42d District (lawn green): Open. Southern Buffalo suburbs, Jamestown, and Olean. 49.7% McCain plurality. Lean R.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 207 (added NY-7, NY-8, NY-11, NY-12, NY-13, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-20, NY-21, NY-22, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-30, NY-35)
Lean D: 88 (added NY-3, NY-4, NY-27, NY-38, NY-40)
Tossup: 65 (added NY-1, NY-2, NY-5, NY-6, NY-10, NY-28, NY-29, NY-31, NY-32, NY-34, NY-36, NY-37, NY-39, NY-41, NY-42)
Lean R: 8
Safe R: 170 (added NY-9, NY-33)
Total: 295 D, 65 Toss, 178 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 186 (added NY-7, NY-8, NY-11, NY-12, NY-13, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-20, NY-21, NY-22, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-30, NY-35, NY-38, NY-40, NY-41)
Lean D: 60 (added NY-3, NY-4, NY-27, NY-39)
Tossup: 85 (added NY-1, NY-2, NY-5, NY-6, NY-10, NY-28, NY-29, NY-31, NY-32, NY-34, NY-36)
Lean R: 21 (added NY-42)
Safe R: 186 (added NY-9, NY-33, NY-37)
Total: 246 D, 85 Toss, 207 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DC, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DC (3), DE (4), HI (5), IL (30), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), NY (42), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 184
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), PA (30), VA (20), WI (14) = 133
Tossup: CO (13), FL (43), GA (23), MO (15), NC (23), NE (1), OH (27) = 145
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 317 D, 145 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DC (3), DE (4), HI (5), IL (30), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), NY (42), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 184
Lean D: ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), PA (30), WI (14) = 96
Tossup: CO (13), FL (43), IA (9), MO (15), NC (23), NV (8), OH (27), VA (20) = 158
Lean R: AZ (16), GA (23), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 72
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 280 D, 158 Toss, 197 R